It’s mostly US Open tennis this week, as we have an international break.
I hope you were able to follow my thought processes on Twitter at @drtclub.
In tennis, our trades tend to be via shorter odds swings than football. Matches such as John Isner’s has me licking my lips!
(20) John Isner 3 4 7 6 7
(WC) Francis Tiafoe 6 6 6 2 6
Here we have a qualifier in Francis Tiafoe winning the first two sets. Remember we have a seeded player v unseeded player. Cue the return of Big John!
He MUST win the next set, and boy was he made to work. I backed Isner at 2.00 after the first set defeat.
I Layed Tiafoe at 1.53 after a 2-0 lead. Did you know you could have layed Tiafoe at 1.1 during the tie breaker in the 3rd set?
Isner fought back to win the match. A great trade.
Others included Muguruza, Benneteau (I told you this would be a 5 setter!), Stakhovsky and Kvitova who you could back at evens despite not losing a set.
She went on to win in two straight sets. We don’t, as I say, get massive odds swings. We just have to take our profits where we find them.
For instance, I Layed Edmunds at 1.27 2 sets up v Gasquet. Edmunds odds did rise to 1.56 and I got out as the market thought Gasquet would win the 3rd set. He didn’t.
There were some trades which did not come in, but when, for instance, you’re Laying Lucic-Baroni at 1.18, the liability is lesser and upside greater! So join me again if you can.
16:30 – Aabyhoj v Silkeborg – 1.03 Silkeborg
- 3-7 goals scored by Silkeborg in the Danish Cup. Worth keeping an eye on this match for a) 0-0 at halftime – back 0-3 2nd half and b) ensure Silkeborg win this match.
19:45 – Cork City v Bray – 1.37 Cork City
- Cork have kept 5 consecutive clean sheets in head to heads.
- This is 2nd v 9th in the Irish Premier league.
- Only 2 defeats.
- Only 1 home loss.
- Unbeaten in 9 matches.
- 3 consecutive away clean sheets.
- Failed to score away v top 6.
Profitable In-Play Opportunities
- There is a possibility of a 0-0 given Bray’s recent clean sheets and Cork’s recent run of 0-0’s as well as the fact that Bray tend to fail to score v top teams away from home.
- Back 0-0 pre-match if you want and trade out at halftime.
- I will, if 0-0 at halftime, back 2-0 Cork Correct score and 2-1 just in case.
- Expect a Cork win today and react if otherwise.
19:45 – Crumlin Utd v Dundalk – 1.14 Dundalk
- Crumlin tend to lose to nil when playing Premier League teams in the FAI cup. expect the same today and react otherwise if they score first or it’s 0-0 at halftime. Dundalk should be scoring 3 goals at least today.
US Open tennis – see you on Twitter at 4pm
I have researched only those matches of interest for me from a potential trading perspective. We shall see what the day brings.
- Michael Mmoh v Jeremy Chardy 16:00 – 1.11 Chardy – 384th v 55th 7 consecutive defeats at a lesser level plays 6 defeats in 7 in a higher level. Both players not in the best of form. 3 consecutive tie breaker sets in last 3 matches and a retirement in Canada suggests a speculative lay of Chardy at 1.11.
- Kei Nishikori v Benjamin Becker 16:00 – 1.03 Nishikori – Always worth laying any player sub 1.05 just in case…. and Nishikori has had his recent injury scares. 7th v 96th. 3 consecutive Kei wins in head to heads.
Pauline Parmentier v Caroline Garcia 16:00 – 1.31 Garcia – 63rd v 33rd – Garcia won on hard this year. Don’t know these 2 that well.
Annika Beck v Nadia Podoroska 18:00 – 1.24 Beck – 41st v 230th – Nadia plays in lower level tournaments.
Vitalia Diatchenko v Timea Bacsinszky 18:00 – 1.05 Timea – 677th v 15th.No head to heads. Whopping rankings gap so 0-2 expected. React if otherwise.
Alexandr Dolgopolov v David Ferrer 18:00 – 1.4 – 57th v 13th. Out of the top 10 now Ferrer and he is not as reliable as he used to be. Talking of unreliable, it’s the enigma that is Dolgo. He can beat Nadal on clay in Monaco on his day, and then produce such inconsistency afterwards it leaves you scratching your head.2 wins in 3 now for Dolgo includes Acapulco this year on hard. 1.4 looks too short for Ferrer. I would lay it off the bat.
Camila Giorgi v Samantha Stosur 18:00 – 1.61 Stosur. Had an excellent French Open – 67th v 17th in the rankings. She is a fighter Stosur so I would lay Giorgi if Giorgi won the first set.
Jared Donaldson v David Goffin 18:00 – 1.17 Goffin – 122nd v 14th. A USA home player could play above himself. All losses for Goffin recently were 3 set losses i.e. he took a set at least. This may not be a 0-3 so look out.
Kurumi Nara v Stefanie Voegele 18:00 – 1.33 Nara – 80th v 100th and Nara has 3 wins in head to heads, latterly in 2015. We may see a tie breaker set, more likely 2nd set.
Janko Tipsarevic v Sam Querrey 18:00 – 1.28 Querrey – 250th v 30th. Last met in 2013 where Tipsarovic won 3. Market expects a different outcome 3 years later.
Fernando Verdasco v Stan Wawrinka 18:00 – 1.35 Stan – 46th v 3rd. 3-3 head to heads. Verdasco won on grass this year so this could be a battle and 1.35 for me is too short for Stan. Another pre-match lay.
Juan Martin Del Potro v Diego Schwartzman 20:00 – 1.09 Juan – after beating Djokovic in the Olympics, expect Del Potro to go quite deep this US Open. He is the higher ranked player only because of injury.
Damir Dzumhur v Bernard Tomic 20:00 – 1.1 Tomic – 72nd v 19th. 4 setter the last time these 2 met Tomic has recently beaten Nishikori and Goffin so that is eye-catching. Watch out Damir may take a set. Let’s hope he takes the first 2!!
Teymuraz Gabashvili v Fabio Fognini 20:00 – 1.4. The epitomy of mentally imploding. That should be the title of Foggy’s Biography. He dominated Andy Murray in the Olympics only to switch off. He is layable if he wins the first set, better yet at 2-0 up!