ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Fulham v Leicester – 2.54 Leicester
- new manager syndrome for Fulham negates any form prior to this match.
- And it’s the man who won Leicester the title!
- Fulham were always going to struggle v Liverpool and Chelsea away but beat Southampton 3-2.
- A worry there that a team like Southampton, hardly goal laden, could score 2 goals against them!
- And that’s it for Fulham recent form.
- Leicester are unbeaten in 5 matches, 3 draws and 2 wins and conceding 1-0-0-1-0 recently.
- All Leicester losses this season have come v the top 8 where they have scored in all defeats.
- Really on season form, Leicester should not be losing today. They have a good defensive look to themselves, have goals in them but…..we have new manager syndrome for Fulham which may engender a positive response.
Wolves v Chelsea – 1.81 Chelsea
- The grand plan for Wolves sees the wheels falling off. 4 wins , all to nil. Great when you can keep a clean sheet. But Wolves have now conceded in the last 6 matches, and , wouldn’t you know, see 5 defeats and a draw. Winning to nil is not a tactic that is working. They need to up the goal scoring count.
- Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches suggests they can be defensive but against classy opposition, fall foul late on.
- Wolves have conceded 2 goals at least in each of their last 3 home matches
- Wolves have scored and conceded without winning v top 8 teams.
- Their only home wins came v 2 of the current bottom 3.
- 7 of 8 goals scored by Wolves at home came 2nd half
- Chelsea have a sole loss v Tottenham, a pre-European Club competition match and a London derby so there were extenuating circumstances.
- 3 consecutive away clean sheets prior to that Tottenham away defeat.
- Chelsea have failed to score only twice.
- all Chelsea away wins have come v 14th and lower so an argument that their form may flatter them. Only 2 away matches v the top 13, and Wolves are 13th , saw no win.
- Best case today for Wolves is a score draw, I feel. They are scoring v the top 8 and may do so today albeit without winning. Simple angle.
Burnley v Liverpool – 1.31 Liverpool
- Were this last season, the market would not be as dismissive of Burnley who are floundering this season.
- I don’t see head to heads as relevant such is Burnley’s fall from grace this season
- 5 losses and 2 draws last 7 matches
- only 3 clean sheets
- only 2 wins
- no 0-0 at halftime at home
- 5-0 away loss v 1st and 0-4 home loss v 3rd
- conceded 2 goals at least in 4/5 matches v the top 14 at home
- must win for Liverpool to keep tabs on City. 5 point gap with a Liverpool game in hand
- failed to score only once
- 3 0-0’s at halftime in the last 4 matches ends that usual Liverpool lead halftime/fulltime pattern of earlier in the season
- 2 0-0’s at halftime away ( 29%)
- all 3 draws have come v the top 4.
- clean sheets away v 11th and lower.
- 3/3 wins home and away v 17th and lower without conceding
- an unreadable Burnley. I always think they will revert to the Burnley of last season but that is not happening.
- They look like a Championship side again, conceding 9 goals in 2 matches v the top 3.
- Liverpool tend to keep clean sheets v strugglers so if they score ( and they have only failed v Man City) they should win.
- Ordinarily I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but 3 in 4 matches now for Liverpool puts me off. I expect 2 goals minimum from the Reds today
Everton v Newcastle – 1.57 Everton
- due deference to Everton or a market which sees through Newcastle’s recent winning run.
- 2 1-0 Everton wins last season
- Bar West Ham ( no offence ) it takes a good ‘un to beat Everton. Losses only v the Hamsters, Arsenal, Man Utd and Liverpool, the last 3 away defeats
- 4 consecutive home wins
- scored in their last 7 at home
- 4 wins and a 1-1 v 15th and lower at home.
- 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches
- all defeats home and away have come v the top 12. Like last season, a feeling Newcastle’s survival will be based on taking points from fellow relegation threatened sides.
- scored and conceded in all matches v top 8, losing all bar 1.
- 5 goals scored away first 1/2 hour of matches
- Newcastle quicker than Usain Bolt. 5 goals , all 5 goals, scored away first 1/2 hour. Watch out for that today. I think Newcastle are layable if scoring first. Everton did eventually score just a single goal v Cardiff but were utterly dominant. They may have the same struggle today despite dominance. This might be a tight match but Everton should boss it. Note the Newcastle scoring and conceding v the top 8, albeit tending to lose. Do Everton have 2 goals in them? Well, they did v Palace, Fulham and Brighton but not against Cardiff despite winning
Tottenham v Southampton – 1.38 Tottenham
- new manager syndrome for Southampton. Mark ‘Sparky’ ‘Hughesy’ Hughes is gone after failing to pick Matt le Tissier for his Southampton side.
- Head to heads again will not be relevant under present circumstances
- 7 wins in 9 matches
- no draw this season
- only 3 0-0’s at halftime
- no 0-0 at halftime at home
- all losses bar 1 came v the top 4
- only beat Cardiff 1-0 at home.
- only 2 losses in 6, one v Man City. Old Sparky Hughesy Hughes did deliver 4 draws in those 6 matches.
- With Southampton scoring 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches, the sacking of Sparky Hughesy Hughes may have been a bit premature. Stuart Armstrong scored 3 of those 4 goals. Goals were Saints problem. Maybe they found a solution ?
- 3+ goals conceded in 3 matches v the top 3
- the sacking of Hughes may have been a tad ill-timed as there was improvement in Southampton, and 4 goals in 2 games but no wins.
- New manager may mess up the form reading of this match. But on form, Saints will not be winning today.
- Tottenham have had a couple of limp wins, 1-0 v Cardiff and 0-1 v Palace but if they show an ounce of the form they showed v Chelsea, they should win with ease.
- Remember Spurs no draw this season so note that.
Man Utd v Arsenal – 2.52 Man Utd
- too high profile a match for me to research, albeit to say that this is not the Arsenal side of old, which tended to roll over v fellow top 5 teams.
- Arsenal’s only losses though have come v top 3. United 8th at the moment.
- Arsenal failed to score only in their first match of the season.They scored and conceded in all aways
- United have conceded 3-2-3 v the top 5 but not met the top 4 at home.
- Both teams to score and Arsenal not lose? Do remember, 2.52 the favourite suggests it’s too tough to call
FRENCH LIGUE 1
I repeat what I said yesterday. I do not tend to research French Ligue 1. I find it a tough league so note that as you read the research below.
Reims v Toulouse – 2 Reims
Bordeaux v St Etienne – 2.6 Bordeaux
Caen v Nimes – 2.8 Nimes
Dijon v Guingamp – 2.34 Dijon
Lyon v Rennes – 1.58 Lyon
- 1-1 and 1-2 Lyon in the last 2 head to heads
- only 1 loss in 11 matches came v PSG
- only 3 losses came without scoring
- 4 wins in 6 matches
- no defeat in 5 at home
- 5 0-0’s at halftime at home
- unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower
- 4 of 5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half
- scored first in 7/8 at home
- led at halftime in 5/8 matches at home
- scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches
- failed to score in only one match
- scored and conceded in their last 8 away matches
- score draws away v 3rd, 5th and 6th
- not beaten the top 9 home and away
- 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half
- both teams could score here today with Rennes not winning, if they continue their score draw record v 3rd-6th away.
- Lyon tend to score first . If leading 2-0, lay them or the score line in the hope both teams score.
Nantes v Marseille – 2.36 Marseille
20:00 kick off
Strasbourg v Paris St-G – 1.39 PSG
- the last 2 home head to heads have been 2-1 and 1-2.
- only 1 loss in 8 matches
- only 3 clean sheets
- not played the top 5 at home.
- not beaten the top 10 yet this season
- 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half
- all wins bar a 2-2 draw with Bordeaux last match
- 6 clean sheets in 8 matches
- scored 2+ goals in each of their last 7 away
- Strasbourg yet to meet the top 5 at home and yet to beat the top 10 home and away.
- PSG are still scoring 2 goals at least and that should be enough today .
Motherwell v Celtic – 1.3 Celtic
- 1-1 and 0-0 last 2 head to heads at Motherwell suggests laying Celtic at 1.3 odds
- 2 consecutive home wins to nil
- 3 clean sheets in 5 matches – led to wins
- yet to beat the top 6 home or away
- 3-7-3 goals conceded v top 3 this season
- 6 wins in their last 7 matches.
- 9 clean sheets in 11 matches
- 11 of 15 goals scored away came 1st half
- all dropped points have come away
- clean sheets away v 5th and lower
- the head to heads tell us to lay Celtic at 1.3. Better yet if they score first.
- Season long form though points to a Celtic ability to keep clean sheets and score goals ( 6/7 wins).
- If you think Celtic can score today , lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 11/15 goals scored away came 1st half
- Motherwell tend to win if keeping clean sheets but note they are yet to beat the top 6.
Rangers v Aberdeen – 1.54 Rangers
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in league head to heads.
- 6 wins in 7 matches
- failed to score only twice
- only 2 0-0’s at halftime
- in 8 of their last 10 matches, Rangers have scored 2+ goals
- no defeat in 7 at home
- no 0-0 at halftime at home
- 3 wins in 4 matches
- conceded in each of their last 6 away
- 2 0-0’s at halftime away ( 29%)]
- 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half
- only won 1 match away v 9th and higher
- Aberdeen have not scored more than 1 goal v the top 2 and should that pattern continue, and Rangers continue to score 2 goals, a home win is forthcoming.
Hibernian v St Mirren – 1.46 Hibernians