It was a rather simple night last night. What do red cards make? Goals. So seeing 1.31 shots Sporting Lisbon 0-0 against 10 men and coming to the 80th minute, what do you do? Hopefully you layed the draw, layed the 0-0 or backed Sporting and collected as they nicked an 86th minute winner.

Genclerbirligi have a hell of a habit. They lead in matches but failed to win. So what did you do last night as Genclerbirligi scored first against a Besiktas side with goals in them this season? I do hope you layed them for a rather simple DRT as Besiktas scored 2nd half.

0-8 for the England ladies yesterday. Did you back goals? Do consider bookmakers for these matches as Betfair can be illiquid. Yet again, I was a goal out with one of my correct score punts 0-9. Short odds equal goals. THat’s twice now I have been out on a 0-12 and 0-9 correct score punt! They are tradeable if liquid, in the over/under goals markets.

No shock for Maritimo this time as they were awarded 2 red cards. Still both teams scored.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

Cup day today – hooray ( not!). My main focus will be on French Ligue 1, the Bundesliga, Seria A and the Spanish La Liga first as these are eminently more researchable and readable than the League Cup where we see Premiership teams play the kitman in goal and tea ladies up front.  This looks like a busy enough day for a bit of tweeting so see you on twitter from 6pm or even earlier if I am about.

Just an early warning for you that I may not be able to do live chats this weekend as I have to go away this weekend.  So fair-warning for you. I hope these week-day twitter seesions can help assuage the possible weekend absences.

1230pm – Balestier Khalsa v Harimau Muda B – 1.56 home

1230pm – Courts Young Lions v Brunei DPMM FC – 1.54 away

230pm – CS Balotesti v CFR Cluj – 1.43 away

4pm – Georgia (W) v Czech Republic (W) – 1.06 away

415pm – Panaitolikos v Veria – 1.86 home

430pm – FK Atlantas v FK Suduva  – 2.1 home

430pm – Kaiserslautern v Nurnberg – 1.9 home

430pm – Karlsruhe v Fortuna Dusseldorf – 2.5 home

445pm – GKS Katowice v Cracovia Krakow- 2.02 away

5pm – Usti Nad Labem v Slavia Prague – 1.85 away

530pm – Breda v Heerenveen – 2.26 away

630pm – Jonkopings Sodra v IK Frej – 1.26 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

630pm – SV Horn v Red Bull Salzburg – 1.15 away

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

630pm – Xanthi v Olympiakos – 1.45 away

Standout stats

• teams like Olympiakos are well worth sticking with this season. they have been reliable DRT mediums for a few seasons now as long term DRT’ers can attest.
• 2-4-2-3-2-3 scored by Olympiakos in head to heads wins augurs well for tonight. I would though have expected shorter odds. I guess the market has factored in the away status of this fixture.
• 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 win for Xanthi this season is typically Greek. Yet to concede.
• One of the 0-0’s was away to 2nd best in Greece PAOK.
• Olympiakos have scored 3-2-3 in 3 wins, and conceded only once.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Only 3 matches each to work with , but Olympiakos are matching this season what they normally score in head to heads. Expect a continuation of that this match and 2/3 goals from the away side.
• 0-0 though must enter calculations given Xanthi’s 3 scorelines so far. Do not be surprised if we see a long drawn-out 0-0 and do remember that , however late into the match we are, Olympiakos have historically always come up with that crucial goal. A DRT match for the shortlist as trust in the away team.

7pm – Atletico Madrid v Getafe – 1.28 home banker

Standout stats

• 4 consecutive Atl Madrid wins to nil in head to heads.The last 3 have been 2-0, 0-1 and 2-0.
• 3 wins for Atl Madrid were to nil and a 1-2 loss to Barcelona.
• atl Madrid have scored 1 goal in each of their 2 home matches.
• Getafe lost their opening 3 matches of the season , the last 2 saw both teams score. They beat Malaga 1-0 at home.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• The head to heads look ominous for Getafe. If continuing their pattern, Atl Madrid will win to nil, opening up a correct score punt. 2-0 , 3-0 for me today. They have hardly been emphatic this season.
• Getafe matches have all seen at least one goal before halftime, so lay the late 0-0 halftime score.

7pm – Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg – 1.31 home

Standout stats

• 3 Bayern wins recently ended with a 4-1 Wolfsburg win and a draw in the Super Cup. The Super Cup head to head is indicative of nothing and can be ignored.
• Bayern have competition this season from an excellent Dortmund who , like Bayern, have all wins.
• Bayern have scored at least 2 goals this season. Will that continue ?
• There has not yet been a 0-0 at halftime in Bayern matches this season.
• 8 of Bayern’s 10 home goals have been scored 2nd half.
• 1-1 and 0-0 away for Wolfsburg this season.. They have won their 3 home matches.
• Wolfsburg have kept 3 consecutive clean sheets.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Wolfsburg are unbeaten in 2 head to heads, but the Super Cup draw can be ignored. Bayern are scoring 2+ goals so far but are yet to meet Dortmund or Wolfsburg. They did beat Leverkusen 3-0 which is a good gauge to today’s match.
• Bayern matches have all seen a goal before halftime so I would lay the very late 0-0 halftime score. Do note Wolfsburg kept a 0-0 last away match.
• I would lay Wolfsburg if Wolfsburg score first.

7pm – DOVO v Willem II – 1.1 away

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

7pm – Hertha Berlin v FC Koln – 2.44 home

Standout stats

• 1-2 the only recent relevant head to head saw Hertha Berlin win via an 86th minute goal.
• Hertha’s only 2 defeats this season came away to likely top 5 teams Wolfsburg and Dortmund. No shame in that. 1-1 and 2-1 at home v Werder Bremen and Stuttgart.
• Hertha have only kept 1 clean sheet and have only failed to score in 1 of their 5 matches this season
• Koln scored and conceded in their first 4 matches of the season, recording a win, draw, win, loss before another 1-0 win v Mgladbach at home.
• 1-3 and 6-2 away from home certainly makes for an entertaining match and may betray some more attacking tactics away from home?

Profitable in-play opportunities

A very small sample of matches to work with an a solitary head to head which could realistically have gone either way but went Hertha’s way with an 86th minute winner.

I would slightly favour Hertha Berlin this season given they have only lost away, and to potential top 5 teams.  Both teams to score has a chance and I would consider laying Koln if Koln score first although we may see a defensive reaction to their 6-2 drubbing by Frankfurt. Teams tend to over-compensate defensively after heavy defeats. Join me on twitter this evening where the in-play stats will reveal all

7pm – Ingolstadt v Hamburg – 2.36 home

Standout stats

• No recent relevant head to heads.
• We see a very definite pattern with Ingolstadt which could be repeated today. They have kept 4 clean sheets and only conceded to Dortmund. 3 of the wins were 0-1 away wins and at home they kept Wolfsburg to 0-0.
• Are they hiring West Brom’s Tony Pulis on the side? This is Pulis-esque defensive displays working to perfection as long as they can keep nicking a goal.
• Indolstadt have had a really tough opening at home 0-0 and 0-4 v Wolfsburg and Dortmund.
• In stark contrast, Hamburg matches have seen 5-5-3-3 goals before a 0-0 v Frankfurt.

 

Profitable in-play opportunities

• It took a red hot attacking force like Dortmund until the 2nd half before they scored against Ingolstadt and there is a hope today that Ingol will attempt to “do a Pulis’ and nick another 1-0, only this time breaking their duck at home. Hamburg matches though tend to feature goals , albeit their last match was a 0-0.
• I would tentatively favour the home side to keep it to 0-0 for a while today . If they can keep Dortmund from scoring for 55 minutes, then they should be able to keep lesser sides from the shut out.  Ingolstadt goals scored and conceded have so far come in the 2nd half so do not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime. Back 0-0 pre match if you want and expect the home side to be as tight as usual.

7pm – SV Darmstadt v Werder Bremen – 2.62 home

Standout stats

• When we see odds like this, the market cannot realistically separate the 2 sides.
• there are no head to heads of relevance as SV Darmstadt are newly promoted.
• A good start for SV this season with 3 draws, then a superb win v Leverkusen and the inevitable loss to Bayern Munich.
• 4 of their 5 matches saw a goal before halftime.
• Werder Bremen are as unpredictable as ever.Loss, draw, then 2 wins v Mgladbach and Hoffenheim, where both teams scored, was followed by a 90th minute penalty win for Ingolstadt.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• The market has this right. Werder being kept to nil by Ingolstadt should give Darmstadt hope after they shut out Leverkusen. I would back 0-0 pre-match and hope defensive Darmstadt turn up. I usually trade out at halftime if lucky enough to see a 0-0 then. This match is too tight to call. Home side could win based on their performance v Leverkusen. Away side are perennial Bundesliga team who should cope with newcomers but did falter to Ingolstadt.

715pm – Rangers v St Johnstone – 1.84 home

Standout stats

• This is the Scottish League Cup between inform Rangers from the Championship and St Johnstone from the Premiership.
• 11 consecutive wins now in all competitions for Rangers.
• Rangers have won their last 5 home matches.
• 6 wins in their last 7 league cup matches for Rangers was ended only by Celtic.
• They did beat St Johnstone 1-0 last year in the Cup at home. That was care of an 86th minute goal.
• Rangers have a superb home record in the League Cup over the years. All wins bar 2 defeats since 2006.They kept 5 clean sheets in 6 matches .
• Only 2 wins in their last 10 matches for St Johnstone came at home. They have scored and conceded in their last 8 matches including a 3-1 loss to Celtic.
• St Johnstone have not had a draw in the League Cup since August 2009. They have lost twice to Rangers in the Cup since 2010.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• This Rangers side this year are stronger , it seems, than last year’s and I could see them edging out St Johnstone today in another tight League Cup match. I would favour Rangers today. I do note that St Johnstone have scored and conceded in their last 8 matches. So if they score, they might be vulnerable to a Rangers equaliser.
• Do note how St Johnstone tend to avoid the draw. Lay it late 85th+ minute.

715pm – Silkeborg v AGF- 2.08 away

730pm – Cesena v Modena – 1.91 home

730pm – Entella v Cagliari – 2 away

745pm – Aston Villa v Birmingham – 2.02 home

745pm – Fulham v Stoke – 2.4 away

745pm –  Hull v Swansea – 2.48 away

745pm – Leicester v West Ham – 2.12 home

745pm- Livingston v Inverness CT – 1.66 away

745pm – Middlesbrough v Wolves – 1.71 home

745pm – PSV v Cambuur – 1.17 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

745pm – Ross Co v Falkirk  – 1.64 home

745pm – Sunderland v Man City  – 1.52 away

Standout stats

• 3-1 to City the last time these 2 played in the league Cup. 2-2,1-4, 3-2 wins in favour of City in entertaining head to heads.
• Only 1 recent win for Sunderland was against Exeter in this here League Cup.
• No win yet in the Premiership at home for Sunderland this season.
• Since 2013 in the League Cup, Sunderland have done well, with 4 wins, a draw v Chelsea ( winning in extra time) and a 1-2 loss to Stoke.  We get the impression that Sunderland as a club seems to take this competition seriously.
• 2 consecutive 1-2 losses for City now ends a run of 5 consecutive wins to nil.
• How West Ham survived at the weekend, only the footballing gods, and Roy of the Rovers, can tell us.City have 3 consecutive premiership wins to nil away from home.
• Only 2 defeats for City since 2011 in the League cup came v Liverpool and Newcastle United at home. City beat Sunderland 3-1 last year, as well as West Ham twice, and Sheffield Wednesday.
• Man CIty are unbeaten in 6 head to heads away

Profitable in-play opportunities

• The League Cup brings up the question of players. Will both sides, as is traditional, field weakened sides? We have 2 sides here both with an interest, it seems, in the League Cup which should bring us an interesting goal laden match if history repeats. If City lead 0-2, I would actually lay them here despite Sunderland’s poor reputation this season. Both teams could reasonably score. If 0-0 for a while I would back over 4.5 goals speculatively and hope the goal fest ensues.
• Goal fest potential also logically suggests we lay the 0-0 halftime score.

745pm – Udinese v AC Milan- 2.3 away

8pm – Brest v Niort – 1.94 home

8pm – Paris St-G v Guingamp – 1.22 home banker

Standout stats

• Guingamp at home are very competitive when PSG come to visit. But in the last 3 visits to Paris, they have lost 2-0, 2-0, 6-0.
• After 4 wins, PSG have now score drawn their last 2 matches.  From 4 matches without conceding, PSG have now conceded in their last 2 matches. Champions League effect?
• PSG have scored 2 goals in each of their 2 home matches.
• It’s a season of 2 halves for Guingamp. 3 losses then 3 wins. 1-0, 3-0 losses away and then a 0-1 away win v Nice.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• The home team is favoured in head to heads so it looks like PSG’s turn today. They need to end a run of 2 consecutive score draws and should do so today. Lay any late score draw therefore.
• Not enough stats to take a halftime stance.
• Lay Guingamp if Guingamp score first. 

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8pm – Reading v Everton – 2.22 away

8pm – Shamrock Rovers v Bray – 1.48 home

Standout stats

• 5 consecutive Shamrock Rovers wins in head to heads, the last 3 were to nil.
• This is 3rd v 6th in the Irish Premier League.

Shamrock Rovers.

• only 3 defeats this season.
• No win in 3 matches overall.
• Only 1 loss at home.
• 5 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 7.
• have only kept 2 clean sheets in their last 12 matches.
• Only 1 clean sheet in their last 7 at home.
• have scored in 9 of their last 10 home matches.
• all wins at home v 7th and lower in the league and are playing 6th today.
• Have beaten Bray 0-3 away already this season.

Bray

• Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
• only 3 wins away all season, 2 came within the last 4 matches.
• 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away from home.
• have conceded in 5 of their last 7 matches.
• have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches and 4 of their last 6 away matches.
• away from home, Bray are yet to beat any top 8 side. Remember some of the form is franked as teams meet each other several times per season .

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Bray are on the cusp for Shamrock who beat 7th and lower at home  – Bray are 6th. Form shows Shamrock are favoured today both in head to heads and in recent form. Shamrock though are conceding goals and are likely to concede again. If Bray do score first, I would lay BRay who have not beaten any top 8 side away this season . Shamrock too are highly likely to win. Let’s hope this match is as nice and simple as Genclerbirligi’s was yesterday.

9pm- Granada v Sociedad – 2.54 home

Standout stats

• Like the Darmstadt match, the market has priced this match in such as way as to say that they don’t know who will be the most likeliest winner. I will take a cursory look at it as it is a league match amongst cup matches.
• 1-1, 1-1, 0-3 Granada in the last 3 head to heads.
• Granada have lost their 2 home matches this season v Eibar and Villareal 1-3 and did score at 0-2. Granada beat Getafe 1-2 away and lost 1-0 to Real Madrid.
• 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 loss and then 2-3 loss v Espanyol for David Moyes and Sociedad. Really negative football already from the Football Genius. In the match against Espanyol poor old Moyes must have peed off a gypsy who put a curse on him. 1-0 up, the Sociedad keeper was sent off and a penalty awarded in the 44th minute. 2-2 it was as Sociedad fought back only for Espanyol to nick a 2-3 late winner.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Nothing for me in a match which makes little appeal. From what I saw of Sociedad, they have some solid players especially in attack , but these are 2 also-rans who I don’t want to get involved with, bar an in-play stats glance.