The market was right last night. 4 unfathomable matches and so it showed in the final scores. Whenever you see a favourite at odds of 2.4 or higher, that favourite is a favourite because, well, there has to be a favourite!
Onto today and we have the English Championship and the Champions League. I will prioritise the latter. The English Championship is such a tough league and is not a league I like trading. Time permitting, I will research as many English Championship matches as I can.
17:00 – Spartak Moscow v Maribor – 1.27 Spartak Moscow
- Maribor are the team these other 3 in Group E give a spanking to.
- The Group is wide open between Liverpool, Sevilla and Spartak Moscow. Note Liverpool and Sevilla meet each other which presents Spartak with an ideal opportunity to at least leap-frog Sevilla and even end up level on points with Liverpool ( result pending in that match.
- Both teams have scored in all of Spartak’s group matches. A 1-1 draw v Maribor needs to be improved upon.
- Solid 1-1 v Liverpool and a 5-1 win v Sevilla suggests they should feel confident .
- That draw for Maribor was the only positive this campaign.13 goals conceded in their 3 other matches. If Spartak are as solid as they were v Sevilla, we should see a home win.
17:00 – Besiktas v Porto – 2.56 Porto
- like last night, we see another market with a 2.4+ odds favourite. This suggests that this match will be tight.
- Besiktas remain top of Group G regardless of today’s result.
- 1-3 Besiktas the last time these 2 met but as I say the market does not feel confident in a repeat.
- 3 wins and a draw for Besiktas. 2-0 v Besiktas and 1-1 v Monaco at home
- This is a key match for Porto. 4 points shy of Besiktas. If Porto can win, they close the gap to 1 point with a match to play.
- Away from home, 0-3 win v Monaco and 3-2 loss to Leipzig, it seems a deliberate ploy for Porto to attack from the off.
- Look to a more competitive Porto tonight who I expect to score. Besiktas need a draw only this evening and will maintain a 4 point gap going into the last match
- That I suppose is why the market is so non-committal
19:45 – Sevilla v Liverpool – 2.58 Liverpool
- as with the Besiktas match above, the market cannot split these 2 sides.
- Only 1 point separates these 2 in Group E and with Spartak Moscow only 2 points shy of Sevilla, this match could be critical in determining automatic qualification from this group.
- A draw is tolerable but a win ideal
- Sevilla have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 Champions League matches.
- In this group competition, Sevilla have scored 2,3,1,2 goals. A 2-2 draw with Liverpool at Anfield .Sevilla shockingly lost 5-1 to Spartak Moscow but beat them in the return home match 2-1
- 2-2-3-2 goals scored by Sevilla in recent home Champions League matches. Note the only team they kept a clean sheet with was Maribor.
- 2-4-2-1-7-3 goals scored by Liverpool this Champions League. 2 consecutive clean sheets came only v the weak link Maribor.
- Liverpool have conceded in their away matches ( bar Maribor).
- We could see both teams score today. What chance another 2-2 ? I will take that position today given the need for a win ( and the hope of a comeback from either side if they concede first)
19:45 – Manchester City v Feyenoord – 1.13 Man City
- those who read the research at the weekend and followed the live chat know that we targeted Feyenoord and layed them at odds of 1.1 and shorter as they led 1-0. Final score ? 1-1
- This is a weak , out-of-form , Feyenoord side who should be dominating in Holland.
- Feyenoord are yet to score a point in Group F whilst Man City have a perfect record.
- 0-4 the last time these 2 met. Man City have not scored less than 2 goals this Group Stage. 1.13 odds fits in with a 3/4 goal haul
- Feyenoord have conceded between 2-4 goals in their 4 defeats. They did score in their last 3 defeats.
- Easy home win. Anything else, get stuck in. I expect 3/4 goals from Man City today. Feyenoord were unable to score against them first match but have scored in their last 3 defeats.
19:45 – Napoli v Shakhtar – 1.46 napoli
- the other 2 teams in Man Citys group. It is ……Shakhtar who are 2nd on 9 points, with Napoli 3rd on 3 points. Yes, I would have expected this the other way round, particularly as Napoli are so solid domestically.
- Napoli tend to avoid the draw in the Champions League. But 3 losses and a win is not what they had in mind. Napoli have goals in them but are conceding 1 or 2 more than they score in this competition
- 2-1 Shakhtar in the last head to head
- At home, Napoli beat Feyenoord 3-1 and lost 2-4 v Man City. If Napoli can continue to score 2 goals at least at home, they have a chance today
- Shakhtar have had a great run. A rather inevitable loss to Man City but 3 other wins saw both teams score. . Shakhtar’s only away match in this group was a 1-2 win v Feyenoord.
- This is a must-win for Napoli. Napoli have 2 matches remaining. If they win these 2 and Shakhtar lose their last 2 then Napoli could nick 2nd spot on goal difference. They must take 3 points off Shakhtar this evening.
- I like Napoli’s 2 goal pattern at least at home and that suggests we oppose any Shakhtar lead today.
19:45 – Monaco v Leipzig – 2.4 Monaco
- A 2.4 odds favourite . Yes, the market foresees a tight match.
- Monaco have had a terrible Champions League campaign in Group G.
- That said, bar runaway leaders Besiktas, If Monaco win their remaining 2 matches ( and Leipzig and Porto do not), Leipzig could actually go 2nd.
- leipzig are on 4 points and are more likely to realistically compete for 2nd in this group , than Monaco.
19:45 – APOEL v Real Madrid – 1.19 Real Madrid
- Group H is between Tottenham and Real Madrid , as Dortmund continue their careless season. This is a must-win for Real Madrid given that Dortmund and Tottenham could slit each others throats
- APOEL’s only positive results have come v Dortmund, 2 1-1 draws. Importantly, they lost 3-0 v Real Madrid and Tottenham
- Real Madrid dropped points only against Tottenham
- I do expect an away win today. best case for APOEL would be a 1-1 as they managed against an admittedly poor Dortmund.
- 3 goals best case for Real Madrid this evening
19:45 – Dortmund v Tottenham – 2.26 Dortmund
- Group H is between Tottenham and Real Madrid. Dortmund and APOEL cannot improve their positions ( realistically….)
- If Dortmund win tonight and win their next match, and Tottenham lose their remaining 2 matches, then Dortmund can get 2nd spot
- This is a really poor season for Dortmund domestically, compounded by yet another 2-1 defeat v Stuttgart.
- 2 3-1 defeates for Dortmund v Tottenham and Real Madrid. 2 draws v APOEL. Dortmund are scoring and conceding.
- On that form, we must lay any Dortmund lead in this match.
- Tottenham are in great form in this Champions League with 3 3 goal wins v Dortmund, APOEL and Real Madrid.
- The only dropped points for Tottenham came v Real Madrid ( 1-1)
- So, expect both teams to score and, on form, Tottenham not to lose.
- mathematically though, Dortmund are not out of this run for 2nd spot. It is unrealistic but still mathematically possible.
- Dortmund may be gung ho this evening knowing 3 points is key with only 1 match remaining. BUT Tottenham play APOEL in their last match.
19:45 – Barnsley v Cardiff – 2.28 Cardiff
19:45 – Millwall v Hull – 2.22 Millwall
19:45 – Nottm Forest v Norwich – 2.6 Nottm Forest
20:00 – Bolton v Reading – 2.78 both teams