17:00 – Spartak Moscow v Maribor – 1.27 Spartak Moscow

Maribor are the team these other 3 in Group E give a spanking to.
The Group is wide open between Liverpool, Sevilla and Spartak Moscow. Note Liverpool and Sevilla meet each other which presents Spartak with an ideal opportunity to at least leap-frog Sevilla and even end up level on points with Liverpool ( result pending in that match.
Both teams have scored in all of Spartak’s group matches. A 1-1 draw v Maribor needs to be improved upon.
Solid 1-1 v Liverpool and a 5-1 win v Sevilla suggests they should feel confident .
That draw for Maribor was the only positive this campaign.13 goals conceded in their 3 other matches. If Spartak are as solid as they were v Sevilla, we should see a home win.

17:00 – Besiktas v Porto – 2.56 Porto

like last night, we see another market with a 2.4+ odds favourite. This suggests that this match will be tight.
Besiktas remain top of Group G regardless of today’s result.
1-3 Besiktas the last time these 2 met but as I say the market does not feel confident in a repeat.
3 wins and a draw for Besiktas. 2-0 v Besiktas and 1-1 v Monaco at home
This is a key match for Porto. 4 points shy of Besiktas. If Porto can win, they close the gap to 1 point with a match to play.
Away from home, 0-3 win v Monaco and 3-2 loss to Leipzig, it seems a deliberate ploy for Porto to attack from the off.
Look to a more competitive Porto tonight who I expect to score. Besiktas need a draw only this evening and will maintain a 4 point gap going into the last match
That I suppose is why the market is so non-committal

as with the Besiktas match above, the market cannot split these 2 sides.
Only 1 point separates these 2 in Group E and with Spartak Moscow only 2 points shy of Sevilla, this match could be critical in determining automatic qualification from this group.
A draw is tolerable but a win ideal
Sevilla have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 Champions League matches.
In this group competition, Sevilla have scored 2,3,1,2 goals. A 2-2 draw with Liverpool at Anfield .Sevilla shockingly lost 5-1 to Spartak Moscow but beat them in the return home match 2-1
2-2-3-2 goals scored by Sevilla in recent home Champions League matches. Note the only team they kept a clean sheet with was Maribor.
2-4-2-1-7-3 goals scored by Liverpool this Champions League. 2 consecutive clean sheets came only v the weak link Maribor.
Liverpool have conceded in their away matches ( bar Maribor).
We could see both teams score today. What chance another 2-2 ? I will take that position today given the need for a win ( and the hope of a comeback from either side if they concede first)

those who read the research at the weekend and followed the live chat know that we targeted Feyenoord and layed them at odds of 1.1 and shorter as they led 1-0. Final score ? 1-1
This is a weak , out-of-form , Feyenoord side who should be dominating in Holland.
Feyenoord are yet to score a point in Group F whilst Man City have a perfect record.
0-4 the last time these 2 met. Man City have not scored less than 2 goals this Group Stage. 1.13 odds fits in with a 3/4 goal haul
Feyenoord have conceded between 2-4 goals in their 4 defeats. They did score in their last 3 defeats.
Easy home win. Anything else, get stuck in. I expect 3/4 goals from Man City today. Feyenoord were unable to score against them first match but have scored in their last 3 defeats.

the other 2 teams in Man Citys group. It is ……Shakhtar who are 2nd on 9 points, with Napoli 3rd on 3 points. Yes, I would have expected this the other way round, particularly as Napoli are so solid domestically.
Napoli tend to avoid the draw in the Champions League. But 3 losses and a win is not what they had in mind. Napoli have goals in them but are conceding 1 or 2 more than they score in this competition
2-1 Shakhtar in the last head to head
At home, Napoli beat Feyenoord 3-1 and lost 2-4 v Man City. If Napoli can continue to score 2 goals at least at home, they have a chance today
Shakhtar have had a great run. A rather inevitable loss to Man City but 3 other wins saw both teams score. . Shakhtar’s only away match in this group was a 1-2 win v Feyenoord.
This is a must-win for Napoli. Napoli have 2 matches remaining. If they win these 2 and Shakhtar lose their last 2 then Napoli could nick 2nd spot on goal difference. They must take 3 points off Shakhtar this evening.
I like Napoli’s 2 goal pattern at least at home and that suggests we oppose any Shakhtar lead today.

A 2.4 odds favourite . Yes, the market foresees a tight match.
Monaco have had a terrible Champions League campaign in Group G.
That said, bar runaway leaders Besiktas, If Monaco win their remaining 2 matches ( and Leipzig and Porto do not), Leipzig could actually go 2nd.
leipzig are on 4 points and are more likely to realistically compete for 2nd in this group , than Monaco.

Group H is between Tottenham and Real Madrid , as Dortmund continue their careless season. This is a must-win for Real Madrid given that Dortmund and Tottenham could slit each others throats
APOEL’s only positive results have come v Dortmund, 2 1-1 draws. Importantly, they lost 3-0 v Real Madrid and Tottenham
Real Madrid dropped points only against Tottenham
I do expect an away win today. best case for APOEL would be a 1-1 as they managed against an admittedly poor Dortmund.
3 goals best case for Real Madrid this evening

Group H is between Tottenham and Real Madrid. Dortmund and APOEL cannot improve their positions ( realistically….)
If Dortmund win tonight and win their next match, and Tottenham lose their remaining 2 matches, then Dortmund can get 2nd spot
This is a really poor season for Dortmund domestically, compounded by yet another 2-1 defeat v Stuttgart.
2 3-1 defeates for Dortmund v Tottenham and Real Madrid. 2 draws v APOEL. Dortmund are scoring and conceding.
On that form, we must lay any Dortmund lead in this match.
Tottenham are in great form in this Champions League with 3 3 goal wins v Dortmund, APOEL and Real Madrid.
The only dropped points for Tottenham came v Real Madrid ( 1-1)
So, expect both teams to score and, on form, Tottenham not to lose.
mathematically though, Dortmund are not out of this run for 2nd spot. It is unrealistic but still mathematically possible.
Dortmund may be gung ho this evening knowing 3 points is key with only 1 match remaining. BUT Tottenham play APOEL in their last match.