Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not pre-match favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

It’s another incredibly tricky in-play coupon today. My personal focus will be on the following matches.

• UFA v Zenit St Petersburg. Win or draw for Zenit wins them the title. I’ll approach this match via the in-play stats. PSG needed the same yesterday and won 1-2. Zenit I guess will do enough. We want UFA to get on that score sheet first.

• Rangers v Queen of the South. I will lay Rangers if they score first. Queen of the South have beaten Rangers twice recently in the league and if Rangers score first, QOTS will have to come out and attack.

• Krasnador v Torpedo Moscow – the home side are by far the better side. The away side have actually had trouble scoring. I expect solidity from the home side, but note the also rans in Russia are unreliable.

• Sevilla and Valencia both play at home today and I do expect solid displays. I will therefore monitor these matches.

• Espanyol host Real Madrid , for whom this is a must win. I will definitely be favouring Real Madrid today.

It’s a pity there is no live chat today. I was there for 45 minutes yesterday talking to myself and providing myself with some great profitable trades – 5 or 6 in that short space of time. Considering it is a tricky part of the season, I was delighted with the accuracy of my calls yesterday. I’ll be doing the same today, albeit just for me. It’s obvious you have the long weekend and other plans.

 

11:30 UK Sassuolo v AC Milan – 2.25 away

Standout stats

• exciting when these 2 meet. 4-3 Sassuolo, 2-1 Milan, 1-2 Sassuolo, 2-1 Milan. The Milan wins came in Milan.
• This is 16th v 10th in Seria A. Sassuolo are safe now for another season. Milan with the 9 remaining points on offer could sneak 5th place, but it will require a sudden losing streak from all of the teams inbetween. That is not going to happen.
• This match therefore is a dead rubber.
• Basic research then.
• Sassuolo only have one win v top 11 at home. AC Milan have not beaten any team above them away from home,yet below them, they have 3 wins, 4 draws and a 2-1 loss to Udinese.  Form therefore slightly favours Milan.
• Recent form for both of these sides is dire. Only 3 wins for Sassuolo since 8th February. Only 4 wins since 7th February for Milan.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• On form, Milan are the better side. This match is, though , a dead rubber so means little. Head to heads? Both teams to score? Lay any team 2-0 up.

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11:30 UK Spartak Moscow v CSKA Moscow – 2.15 away

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

12:45 UK Grasshopper v St Gallen – 1.91 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

12:45 UK Thun v Zurich – 2.3 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

13:00 UK Naestved v FC Sydvest – 1.14 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

13:30 UK Swansea v Man City – 1.7 away

Standout stats

• 3 consecutive Man City wins in head to heads , scoring 3-3-2. Both teams scored in the last 2 head to heads
• this is 8th v 2nd in the Premier League.

Swansea

• don’t have much to play for, but they have won 3 consecutive matches.
• no draws home or away v teams above them in the league. Did beat 3rd and 4th at home 2-1

Man City

• with Arsenal having a game in hand, this will keep City honest in their quest to ensure 2nd and more importantly the top 3 Champions League places.
• have beaten 6th, 7th and 9th away from home and play 8th today.
• 4 consecutive wins
• 4 losses away in a row ended with a win last time out.
• no draw in 12 matches.
• both teams have scored in 67% of City away matches.
• no 0-0
• scored 12 goals in the last 1/4 hour of away matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• the requisite motivation is with Man City and this is arguably a final hurrah at home for Swansea. I’d have to favour the motivated side not to lose.
• Over 2.5 goals for Man City occurs in 2/3rd of away matches. City to score 2 + again? If so, lay Swansea if they score first.

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I will not be researching any Dutch Eredivisie matches since PSV won the title. We cannot trust these teams now to be giving 100% effort any more this season.

13:30 UK Excelsior v AZ Alkmaar – 1.95 away

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

13:30 UK NAC Breda v Groningen – 2.3 away

 

13:30 UK PEC Zwolle v Feyenoord – 1.91 away

13:30 UK Dordrecht v Ajax – 1.2 away

13:30 UK Vitesse v Utrecht – 1.28 home

13:30 UK Heerenveen v Twente – 2.4 home

13:30 UK Heracles v Go Ahead Eagles – 1.83 home

13:30 UK ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven – 1.4 away

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

13:30 UK Club Brugge v Gent – 1.83 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

14:00 UK Torino v Chievo – 1.75 home

Standout stats

• 0-1 Torino and 0-0 the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 9th v 12th in Seria A .Chievo are safe from relegation. Torino are unlikely to break into the top 5 European places.
• This therefore is another dead rubber so a fleeting glance at the season-long patterns to see if anything catches my eye.
• Only 4 defeats for Torino since 6th December but 2 consecutive defeats now.Part of a run of only 1 win in 6, that win was in the Turin derby v Juventus.
• It seems they have switched off since that derby win.
• Only 1 loss at home for Torino v 13th and higher in the league. They have only lost at home to Lazio Roma.
• Only 1 loss in 11 matches for Chievo. They have , though, drawn 4 of their last 5 matches.
• Chievo are totally unreadable away from home, losing to teams throughout the league, rather than, say, isolated to the top 1/3rd for instance.18% over 2.5 goals away for Chievo is a real standout stat.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• a dead rubber so ideally leave this match alone. Form wise, well both sides are in great form. Torino may have switched off though since the Turin derby . Chievo remain tough to beat. 18% over 2.5 goals away for Chievo suggests a defensive game. They are though unreadable away from home and this is another match you can safely cross off the list.

14:00 UK Fc Ufa v Zenit St Petersburg – 1.25 away

Standout stats

• 1-0 to Zenit in the sole previous head to head.
• this is 12th v 1st in the Russian Premier League. Ufa are only 2 points ahead of the relegation pack. Zenit are 8 points clear of 2nd place.

Ufa

• no draw in 6 at home
• scored and conceded in their last 2 at home and last 3 overall.
• only 2 wins in 11 matches.
• 2 wins in their last 3 at home.
• only 2 wins at home.
• lost at home to 2nd and 4th and drew 3-3 with 3rd
• 31% over 2.5 goals at home
• only 1 0-0 at home.

Zenit

• no win in 2 away
• no defeat in 6 away and in 12 overall.
• 3 draws in their last 5 matches.
• all wins home and away v 11th and lower bar a single 1-1 draw away v 16th.
• 38% over 2.5 goals away
• only 1 0-0 away
• 21 goals scoredaway

Profitable in-play opportunities

• 3 matches remain and Zenit are 8 points clear. Ergo, they win, or draw and they are Champions of Russia. Ufa need points as well. The over 2.5 goals percentage is worrying short for both sides which could hint at a tight match. Mix in the need for both sides and that tightness could be exacerbated.
• I do expect Zenit to prevail . If the match is 0-0 for a while, lay the late 0-0.
• If Ufa score first, lay them .

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14:30 UK St Pauli v Bochum – 1.85 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

14:30 UK Ingolstadt v Leipzig – 1.65 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

14:30 UK Aue v Kaiserslautern – 1.8 away

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

14:30 UK Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia – 1.5 home

Standout stats

• this is a head to head for the home side. Lech Poznan don’t tend to get beaten at home. Similarly for Jag.
• This is 1st v 4th in Polish top flight league after 31 matches.

Profitable in-play opportunities

14:30 UK IFK Goteborg v Orebro – 1.4 home

Standout stats

• this is a Swedish Cup match between top and bottom of the Swedish Allsvenskan league.
• 3 consecutive wins for IFK in recent head to heads, saw 2-1, 3-4 and 0-2 wins.

IFK

• only 1 loss in 15 matches in all competitions.
• 11 wins in 14 matches.
• 14 wins in their last 17 home matches in all competitions.
• only 1 loss in 14 matches in the Cup.  4 consecutive cup wins scoring 6-5-2-3 includes 3 clean sheets.
• 5 wins in 6 matches at home. 2-4-0-5-2-3 scored at home in those matches.

Orebro

• 6 defeats and 2 draws in their last 8 matches.
• Failed to score in their last 5 matches.
• 4 consecutive away defeats to nil in all competitions.
• 5 wins and a 3-3 draw in the last 6 in the cup.
• This does include a 1-0 win v Malmo.
• 3 consecutive away wins to nil in the cup. Most recently a 0-1 v Malmo

Profitable in-play opportunities

• IFK tend to get the best of Orebro in the head to heads. Orebro’s recent cup wins away were to nil. Will they keep IFK out? If Orebro score first, IFK should outscore them but the 0-1 recently v Malmo was eyecatching. If 0-1, check the 0-1 correct score odds and if they are large enough, back the 0-1 as insurance and lay orebro in the match odds market.

15:00 UK Basel v Young Boys – 1.75 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

15:30 UK Rangers v Queen of the South – 1.44 home

Standout stats

• 1-2 for Rangers from the first leg play-off. The match was 1-1. Rangers won with a 75th minute goal.
• 2-4-2-4-2 scored by Rangers in their last 5 home matches augurs well for what will be a nervy 2nd leg.
• Queen of the South have only won 1 of their last 7 matches away from home.
• A look at Queen of the South this season v the top 3 ( Rangers, Hibs and Hearts) will reveal that there is a marked gap between QOTS and the others.
• 4-2 loss, 1-0 win v Hibs, 0-3 , 0-0, 4-1, 2-0 win over Rangers!, 0-2, 1-2, 1-1 draw v Rangers, 2-0, 0-1 win over Hibs, 3-0 home win v Rangers,

Profitable in-play opportunities

• At the back-end of the season, Queen of the South beat Rangers twice and drew with them, and beat Hibs so there will be some fight in these Queens today. 1.44 does look a tad low for Rangers and I will lay them if they score first.

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15:30 UK Rapid Vienna v Austria Vienna – 1.67 home

16:00 UK Man Utd v Arsenal – 2.45 home

Standout stats

• not a match which hugely appeals as far as separating these 2 sides is concerned.
• 2-1 and 1-0 for United in the last 2 home  head to heads.
• 1-2 United and 1-2 Arsenal in the last 2 head to heads says it all.
• Arsenal have a match in hand over United and are 3rd currently.

Man Utd

• no draw in 13 at home for Man Utd – something to go to war with?
• No draw in 12
• 3 losses in their last 4 matches v Chelsea, Everton and West Brom.United beat Palace 1-2 recently. A good result because Palace are a form side and were at home!
• 6 consecutive home wins ended with a 0-1 v West Brom.
• United are unbeaten v top 6 at home.They scored 4 against City, and 3 v Liverpool and Spurs.
• 72% over 2.5 goals at home
• no 0-0 at home
• 24 of 40 home goals scored came 1st half

Arsenal

• 5 match winning streak away
• no draw in 9 away
• scored in their last 7 away
• only 1 loss in 11 matches came last match at home to Swansea. Arsenal were 1.3 odds for this match. Yikes!
• failed to score in only 4 matches.
• against top 9 away, Arsenal have lost 5, drawn one 2-2 and won one 0-2 v City. In the other matches, Arsenal conceded 2.
• 61% over 2.5 goals away
• no 0-0 away
• 18 of 29 goals scored away came at home

Profitable in-play opportunities

• I think both teams could score today and one win 2-1 . Which one is anyone’s guess! Both teams are in poor recent form. United had a goal scoring problem ended against Palace. Arsenal lost to Swansea when heavy odds on shots.
• Lay the draw today . A nice stat for Man Utd.

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16:00 UK Slovan Liberec v Hradec Kralove – 1.65 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

16:00 UK Banik Ostrava v Ceske Budejovice – 1.6 home

Standout stats

• only 1 recent relevant head to head was a 1-0 Ceske home win.
• This is 12th v 16th of 16 in the Czech top league.

Banik

• 3 matches remain this season. Banik look safe.
• 7 without a win at home though.
• failed to score in their last 3 home matches.
• failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
• And it is here that I will abruptly end my research. You want me to have faith in a team who cannot score recently, at 1.6 odds , at home?
• Yes, Ceske have only 1 win in 11 but the favourites’ recent form is so dire, I will leave well alone.

Profitable in-play opportunities

16:00 UK Silkeborg v Brondby – 1.53 away

Standout stats

• 6 Brondby wins and a draw in the last 7 head to heads.
• This is 12th v 3rd in the Danish Superliga.

Silkeborg

• only 2 wins all season came away from home.
• no win in 13 home matches.
• conceded in their last 24 matches.
• 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
• 2 2-2’s in their last 3 home matches.
• only 2 clean sheets all season.
• no win at home.
• 69% over 2.5 goals at home
• both teams have scored in 62% of matches.
• only 1 0-0 at home.

Brondby

• 3 match winning streak away
• no draw in 7 away matches.
• 3 consecutive clean sheets away
• only 1 loss in 8 matches.
• 5 wins in their last 8 matches were all to nil.
• 6 clean sheets in their 8 matches.
• 38% over 2.5 goals away
• only 1 0-0 away

Profitable in-play opportunities

• Brondby are clearly , historically, the most likeliest winners. Clean sheets too recently is a strong point for Brondby. Only 2 wins for Silkeborg all season. Are they really going to start winning again? I don’t think so.
• 2 2-2 draws in their last 3 suggests they might put up a fight. A throwaway 2-2 correct score punt at big odds pre match might pay off. At the very least it is alive in all scorelines up to 2-2 of course.
• Lay any late 0-0.

16:30 UK FK Krasnodar v Torpedo Moscow – 1.33 home

Standout stats

• 0-3 Krasnador win in the last head to head.
• this is 2nd v 16th in the Russian Premier League

FK Krasnador

• 8 points behind Zenit and 9 possible points remain this season.
• CSKA are only 2 points behind this 2nd spot.
• no defeat in 10 matches at home
• scored in their last 10 overall and last 10 at home
• 6 wins in their last 8 home matches.
• only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 15 matches.
• only 4 defeats all season, 2 at home.beat 15th at home 3-0
• only 1 0-0 at home.
• only 1 0-0 at halftime at home
• scored first in 10 of 13 home matches.

Torpedo Moscow

• only 1 win in 11 matches.
• drew their last 2 matches.
• failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
• no win in 6 overall.
• failed to score in their last 3 away
• no win home or away v top7 sides, losing all bar 3 draws.
• only 2 0-0’s away

Profitable in-play opportunities

• both sides need points which is what we see in all matches pretty much at this part of the season. Form wise, well FK won very easily away at Torpedo and are undefeated in 10 home matches. They have won 6 of their last 8 home matches. Torpedo Moscow have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches and are likely to struggle.
• Lay them IF they score first. Moscow cannot win v top 7 away.

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17:00 UK Anderlecht v Standard Liege – 1.73 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

18:00 UK Atletico Madrid v Barcelona – 1.75 away

Standout stats

• 3 consecutive Barcelona wins, 2 were in the Copa Del Rey.
• This is 3rd v 1st in La Liga. Barca have a 4 point gap over Real Madrid who drew their last match.
• Ath Madrid are 3rd and 4 points clear of Valencia in 3rd.
• 2 matches remain this season. If Barcelona win, they are Champions. If they draw and Real Madrid draw , Barca are Champions.
• Atl Madrid do need something out of the match too, in the home that they can hold onto 3rd spot.
• Atl Madrid lost 3-1 at Barcelona earlier this season.They drew 1-1 at home to Valencia.
• Barcelona lost 3-1 away to real Madrid, beat Valencia away 0-1, and drew 2-2 away to 5th. They may be more vulnerable away.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• A must win for both sides. A win today guarantees the title for Barcelona. This is so tough to read as per this time of the year. It could be tight or equally a goal fest as per the Copa del Rey matches.
• Take a chance and lay the 0-0 halftime score.
• Lay any late draw as a win is required.

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18:00 UK Getafe v Eibar – 2.25 home

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

18:00 UK Elche v Athletic Bilbao – 2.15 away

Standout stats

Profitable in-play opportunities

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18:00 UK Deportivo La Coruna v Levante – 1.75 home

Standout stats

• 0-0 the most recent relevant head to head.
• this is 17th v 14th in La Liga. Both teams are in dire need of points. Depor are only 17th on goal difference. A win will take them 16th dependent on what Almeria do. A draw could be enough to see Levante safe. They are 5 points from relegation with 2 matches remaining. A win guarantees them another La Liga season.

Depor

• 14 without a win and 6 at home. And they are odds on favourites!!!
• conceded in their last 8 matches
• 5 score draws in their last 7 matches.
• 3 draws in their last 5 at home
• 4 wins at home v 4th, 8th, 13th, 19th

Levante

• no draw in 10 away matches
• 8 defeats in their last 10 away matches
• a teams of 2 halves. Levante are unbeaten against all teams home and away below them in the league.. They have lost all bar 1 draw v teams above them away from home.
• they have conceded 18 first half and 17 second half goals away this season.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• this will be a tight affair and fair warning to Depor. Levante will be confident as they are unbeaten v teams below them in the league home and away. A draw will suit Levante as they should not be dragged into relegation zone with a point ( dependent on other results of course). Depor are in dire form.
• I would consider laying Depor if they score first. Score draws tend to allow that conclusion.

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18:00 UK Villarreal v Malaga – 1.85 home

Standout stats

• 1-1, 2-0 Malaga, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
• This is 6th v 7th in La Liga and is pretty much a dead rubber.
• I will glance quickly over the form but really neither side benefit with additional points.
• I warned you off Villareal at ultra short odds last week and they scraped a 1-0 win v Elche. Wholly unconvincing for a team struggling with goals.They failed to score in 7 of their last 10 matches.
• Prior to that 1-0, they failed to score in 4 consecutive home matches. Looks like Villareal switched off a few weeks ago!
• All Villareal’s home defeats bar one have come against teams above them in the league.
• The lost to 9th at home also.
• As for Malaga, well they’ve been thinking about the beach too it seems.An 8 match winless streak ended with a win last match v Almeria.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• This is absolutely unappealing as a spectacle or a trading medium. 2 teams in dire form, with their knotted hankies on their heads already it seems.

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18:00 UK Valencia v Celta Vigo – 1.61 home

Standout stats

• 2-1 Celta, 2-1 Valencia and 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
• this is 4th v 10th in La Liga. Valencia hold that 4th spot. Sevilla are in with a shout for 4th place.
• Celta really don’t progress with any wins in their remaining matches.

Valencia

• a win today goes a long way in securing 4th spot and European football.
• 3 consecutive home wins
• no defeat in 11 matches at home.
• scored and conceded in their last 3 matches.
• 10 Valencia wins in the last 11 matches at home.
• only 1 loss at home.
• all other wins bar 2 0-0’s.
• have scored 3+ goals in 11 home matches.
• 67% over 2.5 goals at home
• scored 41 goals at home
• scored first in 14 of 18 home matches.

Celta Vigo

• no defeat in 4 away
• scored in their last 8 away and last 7 overall.
• only 1 loss in 7 matches was against Real Madrid.
• Only lost 0-1 to Barcelona recently
• only 1 loss in 8 away matches.
• only 1 win away v top 11 was v Barcelona. I think they caught Barca with their pants down.
• 28% over 2.5 goals away
• conceded 3 and 2 to the 2 Madrid teams away from home.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• what might clinch this for Valencia is Celta’s dire record away v top 11 , bar an unexpected win against Barcelona.
• Valencia can really let loose at home. Celta do have only 28% overs away from home but Valencia have scored 3 or more 11 times at home and could simply out muscle Celta today, what with home advantage, a farewell to home support and the need to win to get 4th spot.
• Lay the 0-0 halftime score but delay. Valencia’s home goalscoring is impressive.

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18:00 UK Sevilla v Almeria – 1.28 home

Standout stats

• 4 consecutive head to head wins for Sevilla, scoring 1-2-3-2 in those wins.
• this is 5th v 16th in La Liga. 4th place is very much alive for Sevilla but they must win today.
• Almeria are only a point above the relegation zone.A win today keeps them there but allows them to put fate in their own hands for the last match of the season.

Sevilla

• scored in their last 5 at home and last 11 overall
• only 1 loss in 12 was a 2-3 v Real Madrid . Also included in this run was a home 2-2.
• scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches. This has resulted in 3 score draws and a loss.
• no 0-0 at halftime in their last 8 matches.
• only 1 loss at home . only 2 0-0’s at home
• 21 first half and 15 2nd half goals scored at home.
• scored first in 12 of 18 home matches.

Almeria

• 6 match losing streak away
• no draw in 12 away
• conceded in their last 10 away matches.
• only 2 wins in their last 14 matches came at home.
• failed to score in their last 3 away matches.
• all defeats away v top 6
• only 1 draw away
• 61% over 2.5 goals away.
• only 1 0-0 away
• conceded 16 goals in the first 1/2 hour of matches away.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• We cannot forget that Almeria need points. The market is very definitely on the side of Sevilla here whose only loss was recently was a tight one v Real Madrid. Their form is great. A slight worry re scoring and conceding. 4th place awaits the tussle between Sevilla and Valencia so this home match must be a must win. This is Sevilla’s last home match and I expect a solid performance.
• Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
• lay any late draw.

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18:00 UK Espanyol v Real Madrid – 1.44 away

Standout stats

• 3 goals scored by Real Madrid in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is a must win for Real Madrid today regardless really of Barcelona’s result.  Real know that their kin Atl Madrid will give Barcelona a game.

Profitable in-play opportunities

• an easy angle in. Real Madrid to win  and Espanyol have little to play for. Espanyol have lost 8 out of 9 matches home and away v top 5
• Favour Real all the way, particularly if conceding first or losing late on.

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18:00 UK Spartak Trnava v FK Senica – 1.5 home

19:45 UK Roma v Udinese – 1.28 home

Standout stats

• 3 consecutive Roma wins in the last 3 head to heads.  Roma are 2nd currently. THey need a top 3 place for the Champions League. Lazio are a point behind them. Napoli are 4 points behind them. If Roma lose today, they could be overtaken by Lazio and Napoli. There are 3 matches remaining in Seria A. 2 at home for Roma.

Roma

• no defeat in 3 at home
• scored in their last 8 and last 3 at home
• lost their last match. In all 5 defeats this season, they have never lost a 2nd consecutive match.
• only 1 loss at home.7 draws at home this season in a season plagued by draws.
• 29% over 2.5 goals at home

Udinese

• 1 match away winning streak
• scored in their last 6 matches.
• 2 defeats in their last 3 matches to Inter and Sampdoria.
• scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
• did beat Lazio Roma 0-1 away but have failed to score in 4 other matches home and away v top 3.
• 29% over 2.5 goals away

 

Profitable in-play opportunities

• 9 points remain this season. A win will help Roma consolidate a top 3 spot at the very least.
• Udinese have little to play for and have suffered recent losses v lesser sides than Roma.
• Roma haven’t yet lost 2 consecutive matches so that is a great angle in , if Udinese score first.