I really should get Gordon Burns to host this Monday DRT bulletin as it really is a Krypton Factor trying to solve these football and tennis matches. Fear not, the Bundesliga, Seria A, Premiership, French Ligue 1, Spanish Primera Liga et al will be with us within 3 weeks and I’ll be knocking it out of the park!
I’ll do a bit of tennis research today as the football is less than appealing. I must say though that, without the big names surfacing in these peripheral tournaments, I am finding ‘trading angles’ tough to come by . I will focus on players whose names I recognise today .
18:00 – Hammarby v Elfsborg – 2.54 Hammarby
- Elfsborg are unbeaten in the last 6 head to heads and has scored 4-4-3in the last 3 head to heads.
- This is 10th v 7th in the Swedish Allsvenskan
- only 4 defeats all away from home
- both teams have scored in the last 4 home matches.
- Hammarby scored 2-3-3 in the last 3 home matches
- all Hammarby losses came v 5th-8th inclusive away from home and they are yet to play 5th-8th inclusive at home
- not lost to nil at home
- 12 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half
- 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches
- failed to score only once
- scored and conceded last 5 aways
- all defeats exclusively v top 4 teams
- 100% over 1.5 goals
- they keep serving up puzzlers in Scandinavia. On head to head form, we are with Elfsborg.
- But Hammarby are solid at home and remain unbeaten BUT are yet to meet 5th-8th at home ( the teams they lost to away)
- I think we should not see a 0-0. We should see 2 goals at least and both teams scoring.
- Elfsborg look default first scorers as 12 of Hammarby’s 14 home goals were scored 2nd half.
- Hammarby have not won to nil at home so lay them if they are leading to nil at any point
20:00 – Finn Harps v Derry – 1.96 Derry
- 0-5 Derry and 0-2 Finn in the last 2 head to heads
- this is 8th v 4th in the Irish Premier Division
- only 3 clean sheets
- no draw in 8 at home
- conceded in their last 10 at home
- not won to nil at home
- have lost at home to all top 5 without scoring, yet are favourites today?
- 3 defeats in 5 matches , the only defeats since 22nd April.
- 2 defeats in their last 3 away matches
- only 2 away defeats v 1st and 9th.
- so a team who has lost to all top 5 teams at home ( and meets 4th today) is odds-on favourite? That clears that up then!
- I would expect Finn Harps to concede as they have done in all home matches. That is a first angle. But then we rely on a Derry with 2 defeats in 3 away matches.
- This is a match which I cannot read. Perhaps faith in laying any late draw as Finn Harps do not tend to draw at home. Strictly on form, Finn Harps do not score and lose to top 5.
As I cannot really research the Russian Premier League, Danish Superliga Polish Ekstraklassa ( leagues only just beginning), I have time to look at the tennis today.
From the list below, I do not see a familiar name. I will list the matches but prioritise focus on players I know.
Arantxa Rus v Aleksandrina Naydenova – 1.22 Rus
Danka Kovinic v Cornelia Lister – 1.17 Kovinic
Quirine Lemoine v Irina Bara – 1.78 Bara
Kateryna Kozlova v Basak Eraydin – 1.45 Kozlova
Barbora Krejcikova v Sílvia Soler-Espinosa – 1.56 Krej
Martina Trevisan v Viktoriya Tomova – 1.86 Trevisan
Anna Blinkova v Anastasija Sevastova – 1.29 Sevastova
- at last a familiar name.
- 129th v 26th
- Blinkova won in mother Russia in 3 sets ( boosted by playing at home?) in 2016
- Little known of Blinkova who tends to last only 1 round in Grand Slams. This is her first tournament since Wimbledon.
- Sevastova reached the quarter finals in Bucharest, halted by a Romanian player. She beat 108th and 97th in straight sets , suggesting an ability to cope with 129th in the world. It seems we should be with the market today
Tamara Korpatsch v Sara Errani – 1.56 Errani
- 140th v 110th and I thought Errani was a more familiar name
- No head to heads
- Errani had a poor grass court season.
- She seems a bit more consistent on today’s clay surface.Round of 64 at the French Open and quarter final in Bolivia
- Tamara played Gstaad where she won and lost as favourite.
- I do not like triple-figure ranked players, much less having to rely upon them. Are you more taken by Errani’s clay court form?
Katerina Siniakova v Rebecca Peterson – 1.57 Siniakova
- 38th v 197th , Siniakova is another familiar name
- Here 2 years ago, Peterson won in 2 hard fought sets 7-5 7-6
- Siniakova was poor on grass.
- Siniakova has lost to some big names on clay and that suggests we should not see a 2-0 repeat from Peterson
- Another dilemma here as Peterson plays lower ranked events almost exclusively
ATP Gstaad – clay
Norbert Gombos v T Daniel – 1.7 Daniel
Yannick Hanfmann v Facundo Bagnis – 1.75 Hanfmann
Antoine Bellier v Gleb Sakharov – 1.15 Sakharov
Lorenzo Giustino v Denis Istomin – 1.64 Istomin
- Denis Istomin a very familiar name
- 193rd v 73rd
- Istomin won a 2016 head to head on clay -first set tie breaker
- 3 tie breakers already for Giustino in qualifiers gets him here. This suggests that he may nick a tie breaker but not ultimately win in 2 straight sets. I would be keen on Giustino winning the first set
- The waters are muddied somewhat though. istomin retired at Wimbledon and lost his next match on grass. Is he carrying a niggle? Now you see why I prefer Grand Slams to these also-rans? Lack of clarity in research time and time again
Renzo Olivo v Robin Haase – 1.35 Haase
- Olivo will forever be the man who tamed 1.06 Tsonga.
- 88th v 46th
- no head to heads
- He beat Tsonga on clay at Roland Garros but since then nothing close form wise.
- He was halted by 35th ranked at Bastad.
- 5 defeats in 6 matches now for Haase sees a poor grass court season run into the clay court season.
- 4 setter at Wimbledon and tie breaker first set loss in a Challenger on clay. I have seen more solid 1.35 shots so would see value in laying Haase if Haase wins the first set
M Youzhny v Radu Albot – 1.78 Albot
- 89th v 81st – the rankings and the market expects a tight match
- Youzhny had a great grass court season relatively speaking.His sole clay court match at Umag saw a straight sets loss
- 3 consecutive clay court defeats for Youzhny suggests he is not a force on this surface.
- Albot has been a Challenger tour player on clay so tough to quantify his form. Another reason I prefer Grand Slams! Where is the angle here?
WTA Nanchang – outdoor hard courts
Xinyu Gao v Su-Wei Hsieh – 1.34 Hsieh
- Hsieh should be familiar to you.
- 289th v 101st
- Hsieh beat Konta in the French Open on clay, and took a set off Caroline Garcia too
- She had a reasonable grass court season for a player of her rankings.
- Gao is an absolute unknown.She has been playing hard court events albeit 25k Challenger events
- Hsieh was a quarter finalist in her last 2 outdoor hardcourt events ( albeit to get to quarters she only has 2 players to beat).
- Hsieh should be a step up for this Gao today and I will be with Su-Wei today
Harriet Dart v Qiang Wang – 1.11 Wang
Peangtarn Plipuech v Xinyun Han – 1.6 han
Xiaodi You v Fangzhou Liu – 1.23 Liu
Kurumi Nara v Shuai Peng – 1.25 Peng
- Peng is another familiar Asian name
- 95th v 37th
- head to heads from 2014
- Peng for me has been playing at a consistently higher level than Nara and when last in Asia on hard, won the Zhengzhou tournament
- This is one match I will isolate for trading. Peng’s form looks good enough to justify the odds.
Nao Hibino v Kai-Lin Zhang – 1.65 Nao
Fang Ying Xun v Wushuang Zheng – 1.48 Xun
Eri Hozumi v Saisai Zheng
View all WTA Nanchang 2017
ATP Hamburg – clay
Horacio Zeballos v Daniel Altmaier – 1.3 Zeballos
- 84th v 255th
- a recent retirement for Zeballos was followed by a win and loss in Bastad. He was beaten by Dolgopolov
- 3 3 setters in 4 matches for Daniel may suggest laying Daniel if he wins the first set.
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe v Damir Dzumhur – 1.69 Damir
Diego Schwartzman v Andreas Haider-Maurer – 1.1 Diego
- 34th v no ranking
- 4 setter win for Diego in the French Open in 2015
- Poor old Diego. He keeps meeting a solid player who ends his tournaments. recent victors include Cilic, Nishikori, Sock,Djokovic, Donaldon, Dimitrov, and Kuznetsov
- He took Novak to a 5 setter in the French Open so is adept on clay.
- Obvious to side with Diego today. Let’s hope for a rise in his odds at some point.
Marco Cecchinato v Florian Mayer – 1.96 Mayer
- 157th v 47th. The market cannot split these 2 players. It automatically suggests laying the first set winner
- Mayer we know from an impressive grass court season albeit in 2016!
- In 6 of his last 8 clay court matches, Marco has had 3 setters which suggests laying him if he wins the first set
- Mayer’s clay form seems A.W.O.L. so it seems we lay the first set winner here today
Maximilian Marterer v Gilles Simon – 1.66 Simon
- 132nd v 30th
- no head to heads.
- 2 familiar names
- Simon’s grass court season did not get going because he kept meeting in-form players.
- 4 3 setters in 5 clay court matches for Simon. He lost his last 3 clay court matches
- Marterer is a German in Germany ( remember Dodig in Croatia and Heather in UK?) and could gain from playing at home
- He is largely a Challenger Tour player so hard to quantify form.
- He has not beaten any household names recently on clay.
- I would side tentatively with Simon. But watch if Marterer gains from playing in a home tournament
Benoit Paire v Dmitry Tursunov – 1.1 Paire
- 49th v 653rd
- ‘ooh what a lovely’ Paire is a reliable sort
- Although losing to De Schepper last match, he did equal the sets for a nice trade.
- He had a solid Wimbledon albeit ended by Murray.
- Paire has not tended to go deep into clay tournaments. he did eyecatchingly beat Busta and Stan in Madrid, but lost to Stan in Rome on clay. At Lyon he was out to 77th who won in 3 sets ( 2 tie breakers)
- 8 match losing streak for Tursunov on all surfaces.
- 5-0 loss Tursunov on clay. Expect Paire to win in 2.
Jan-Lennard Struff v Evgeny Donskoy – 1.35 Struff
- 52nd v 96th
- 0-3 Donsky, latterly 2016 Olympics
- 7 losses in 8 for Struff. Struff is a German in Germany and bar that, his odds are far too short for a player not in form.
- Donskoy has been playing largely in Challenger events.
- We have a very strong favourite in poor form albeit playing in a home tournament. His opponent seems to lack the wherewithall to challenge?
I would still lay Struff if Struff wins the first set. Low odds lay for a player in such poor form.