Here’s a recent telegram message
I use the word ‘speculative’ occasionally in my telegram messages to you. I just want to relay to you what I mean by ‘speculative’ and how you should treat a message when you see that word within it.
In the example above, Hull 1, Blackburn 0, I was torn pretty much. You know that I do not like playing matches where the favourite is at 2.4 decimal odds. It tells me that the market makers cannot split the teams, and consequently any result is open!
I contrast that with my pre-match research which sees 19th v 3rd, yes Blackburn are 3rd and unbeaten in 10 matches and in 5 away matches. 3 consecutive away clean sheets and unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
Pre-match research is solidly with Blackburn but there’s that niggle. Why is the favourite priced at 2.37 only? Suspicious. Does the market have some insider info I am not privy to?
That was the reason for the ‘speculative’ element of this play.
This one did not come off. Hull won 2-0. So in future, when you see the word speculative, know that I am not 100% confident in the play. Either take the risk, or limit your outlay. You could choose to delay further, or choose another market ( in this instance for example, break even on 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 Hull and profit loaded on 1-1, 1-2 Blackburn would have accounted for the niggly 2.37 odds).
It’s a word I don’t use that often, ‘speculative’, but from now on, you’ll have a firm idea that any speculative play has a niggle or two attached to it!!
See you at the weekend for live chat webinars!