Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I posted a new trading idea of mine at and at the DRT Facebook page and thought I would re-post it here, in order to ensure as many DRT members as possible could read it, digest it, and (I hope) help me out with my little puzzle in the second half of the article!

Step 1. Faith in the odds

Below is a list of 4 matches which have one thing in common. I draw your attention to the Bet365 odds (these are the pre-match odds).

Notice the odds for the favourite in each of these matches (the favourite being the team with the shortest odds).

Benfica were 1.13 odds favourites pre-match:

Celtic were 1.04 favourites:

TNS were 1.06 favourites:

Napoli were 1.16 odds:

AII of the favourites were sub 1.2 decimal odds favourites before the match.

It has been a contention of mine that the odds can suggest the number of goals a favourite should be scoring. I have noticed, after years of being in the trenches trading football, that teams at odds of 1.2 or lower are expected to score at least 3/4 goals minimum and oftentimes win to nil. It is the former point we are interested in for this strategy i.e. that teams at odds of 1.2 or lower are expected to score at least 3/4 goals minimum.

Step 2. What’s the score?

These 4 matches above share one other characteristic and that is to do with how the game is progressing. Have a look at the screenshots above and see if you can spot that characteristic. Three of the 4 matches were 0-0 at halftime. The Celtic match saw Celtic score before halftime but was a qualifier trade, as those who followed my live chat could attest.

Step 3. Put it all together.

Here’s what we know. Teams at odds of 1.2 or lower are expected to score 3/4 goals minimum. Hold the back pages! It’s 0-0 at halftime in 3 of those 4 matches.

It is at the start of the second half that we can put together our new strategy.

In each of these matches which are 0-0 at halftime, back the following scorelines: 3-0, 3-1, and any other home score (if the favourite is playing at home) or any other away score (if the favourite is playing away from home).

We will profit if the favourite scores the 3 goals expected of such a red-hot favourite. We have presumed a rather one-sided affair and the underdog not to score 2 goals.

We have included the 3-1 scoreline in case the underdog manages to score one goal. In fact, it is the 3-1 scoreline we want above all other because, in my experience, this scoreline pays out at odds of 30/1 or bigger.

Step 4. Bring forth the expected goals, and hope that the underdog bags one goal!

Step 5. Check the final score. 

In our examples above, Benfica won 4-0, Celtic won 0-3, TNS won 4-0 and Napoli won 3-1. The Napoli 3-1 scoreline paid out 30/1 so I was absolutely delighted.

The position we want to be in is the 3-0 scoreline. Why? Because whoever scores the next goal, we are covered! Any other Home/Away score covers either side scoring 4 goals or more. As I said earlier, 3-1 is the big profit-maker for this strategy.

Step 6. Insurance?

I got to thinking… is there any way that we can go for these big correct score payouts but lessen the losses if the teams do not score the expected number of goals?

The obvious market for this Insurance is the Under 2.5 Goals market. I looked at the Under 2.5 Goals market for these 4 matches.

The pre-match Under 2.5 Goals market for the Celtic match was 8.00 (7/1) with Bet365.
The pre-match Under 2.5 Goals market for the TNS match was 5.00 (4/1) with Bet365.
The pre-match Under 2.5 Goals market for the Benfica match was 6.5 with Bet365.
The pre-match Under 2.5 Goals market for the Napoli match was 4.5 (7/2) with Bet365.

These are the ideal odds, of course, at the start of the match. The problem we face is that we cannot foretell that these red-hot favourites would draw a blank at halftime.

We cannot reasonably back Under 2.5 Goals pre-match in all matches in which there was a favourite at odds of 1.2 or lower in anticipation of under-performance. Or do we ‘sacrifice’ this lost stake in anticipation of a red-hot favourite spluttering in-front of goal?

It is this element that I will leave open. Do you have any ideas for how we can create an insurance bet if the red-hot favourite does not score the expected goals? Get in touch.

As you can appreciate, it is the 2nd part of the email that is the puzzle we should seek to solve, in order to make this a ‘cover all bases’ strategy with still the possibility of a big payout.

Watch out for this strategy during this weekend’s live chats. It has paid very well to date, albeit with a small sample of matches, but as part of a stable of strategies, I think this strategy will hold its own long-term.