Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Regular followers know that the Achilles Heel of my insurance trades is a 2-1 and 2-0 scoreline to the team currently leading 1-0.

Regular followers also know that this is a puzzle I would like to solve.

We had another example of this in the Champions League with Man Utd v Atalanta.

To give you some background, Man Utd were 1.61 favourites. Atalanta were missing 5 or so first team players.

It’s an early goal for Atalanta. The Man Utd response, stats wise, was encouraging enough for me to take the plunge.

Lay over 1.5 goals and back ( as the +1 odds for Man Utd were too short), Man Utd in the match odds market, and lay Atalanta in the match odds market.

Sit back, eat a prawn sandwich, and wait.

Hang on. 0-2?

Swear jar overfloweth. Not again.

Now we have to decide. Here are some options:

  • Bail out. Take the hit .
  • Stay in. We are in a 90 minute market, Man Utd were 1.61 favourites pre match and there’s a halftime Ole hairdryer to come.
  • Find some way to cover the 0-2 and 1-2. You could back 0-2 and 1-2 in the correct score market to cover your stakes you have already employed.
  • Get involved again 2nd half because this is a system play. An under dog leading 0-2 on or around halftime. Lay them at 1.5 and back Man Utd at 6.5. An early Man Utd goal will help your P/L from the initial play.
  • OR, use the correct score market only from the start. Using software such as Fairbot, create a break even play on Atalanta 0-2, 1-2 scorelines. Load profit on Man Utd 2-2, 3-2

I know one DRT member Paul has some great ideas regarding this occurrence. Do you?

See you over the weekend for a live chat webinar or two.