This week I began an experiment which has been documented at the DRT Facebook Page and via Facebook Live Video.
It was an experiment based around what I like to call ‘shorties’. This is a shortcut DRT method you might like to try out if you don’t want to do any pre-match research.
Here’s what you do…
Go to Betfair Exchange, then ‘Football’. View by competition.
Now simply take note of all matches where the favourite in the Match Odds market are 1.7 or shorter.
At www.flashscore.com, tick the matches of interest so that they appear in the ‘My Games’ section of the website.
Here is a recent example:
What becomes noticeable is the high percentage of these favourites who win their matches, or at the very least do not lose.
In the list above, the only ‘shorty’ not to win was Dortmund, who lost 1-2, but it must be mentioned here that this is leg-one of a two-legged Europa League match, so it is not necessarily a ‘must win’.
Look for the following…
0-0s at halftime
From the above list, the following matches saw a 0-0 at halftime: Dortmund and Lazio.
Notice the final scores?
Underdog scoring first
Here are the matches from the above list where the underdog scored first: Dortmund vs Salzburg; and Lazio vs Dynamo Kiev.
Salzburg led 0-1, and then 0-2 until Dortmund scored a quick come-back goal to make the match 1-2.
Dynamo Kiev scored first and Lazio scored the next two goals.
0-0/Draw/Underdog losing late on
This is the third main way I use the ‘shorties’ list.
Look for late 0-0s and take that 0-0 on. If these ‘shorties’ are true red-hot favourites, we should be seeing not just one goal, but goals plural. So a late 0-0 is a shock (I would ask you to look at the last two matches for shorty Ludogorets – check out the time of their goals in those two matches).
On 3rd March, Ludogorets match was 0-0. They won 1-0 with a 93rd minute penalty. The draw was layable at odds of 1.1 and lower.
If the match is a score draw late on, take a chance that the draw will end. Again, we are keeping faith in these shorties being true red-hot favourites.
CSKA Sofia were 1.16-shots playing Etar in the list above. The match was 1-1 until the 87th minute, when CSKA Sofia conjured up a late winner.
If the underdog is leading late on, take a chance and lay them at the shortest odds you can find.
Look for the shorties this weekend during the live chat webinars.
See you tomorrow and Sunday!