It’s been a week to take a step back from the European footballing fare.
We have seen two days of Champions League group deciders and one day of Europa League group deciders.
There is a lesson here for you.
Just because there is a full football coupon, with recognisable teams, it doesn’t mean there are trading angles or trading profits to be had.
The key words this week were ‘dead rubber’. So many matches this week saw teams who realistically had nothing to play for.
They had already qualified for the next stages of the Champions League and Europa League and only had, for instance, top place to play for.
Seeing short odds favourites like Paris St Germain and Real Madrid not win I think confirmed my stance on this permutation-filled matches.
DRT is all about football angles. And it’s all about the opportunity to make a big profit from a small risk.
Here’s a great example from this weekend just gone…
This match is the perfect example for DRT. At www.flashscore.com you can actually view the pre-match odds. This is useful. In the match above I’ll close in on the pre-match odds.
And now let’s hone in on the actual odds.
(Apologies for the blurry image, but I hope you can see the ‘1 X 2’ and the decimal odds underneath.)
‘1’ stands for the Home Team.
‘X’ stands for the Draw.
‘2’ stands for the Away Team.
So, in this match featuring Curzon and AFC Wimbledon, who were the pre-match favourites?
If you answered AFC Wimbledon, then go to the top of the class.
With this knowledge to hand, look at the halftime score above. Curzon took a 2-0 lead at halftime.
At the 62nd minute mark, Curzon took a 3-0 lead.
Remember who the pre-match favourite was… It was the away side, AFC Wimbledon. With half an hour of the match remaining (and I must admit with the help of the in-play stats which suggested AFC were very competitive despite the scoreline), I told DRT Live Chatters to Lay Curzon at odds of 1.03.
30 minutes is a long time in football, particularly when you’re a team like Curzon Ashton in the Cup against a team from a better league.
Cue the mother of all collapses for the Ashford-ites!
Final score: 3-4 to AFC Wimbledon.
This was my first trading advice last Sunday. It could only go downhill from this 33/1 equivalent payout!
So, what did we learn here?
Well, there are a few things.
Firstly, in-play stats are important. I pay for a feed but in-play stats are available at websites such as www.williamhill.com. These in-play stats showed me that AFC Wimbledon were competitive. Key in-play stats are shots on target/shots off target and corners.
Secondly, always check the pre-match odds. If a team is an odds on favourite, there must be a reason, particularly if that team is an away side!
Thirdly, is there enough time for a comeback? Here there were 28 minutes remaining of this cup match. Ample time for a recovery to these eyes.
Lastly, do not dismiss the trade just because a team is at odds of 1.03 to Lay.
I did receive correspondence from one DRT member who dipped their toe in with this Lay. I say, if you win £50 for a £1.50 risk, £100 for a £3 risk or £300 for a £9 risk, do take a chance with these. The market often gets it completely wrong, as was the case here.
Now the Champions League and Europa League group stages are sorted out, it’s back to league football and a Live Chat tonight and over the weekend.
I’ve had TWO Super Sundays and a Super Saturday in recent Live Chats and will be looking at steering you guys towards more profits.
Hope you see you this weekend!