I hope you have enjoyed the tennis coverage this week and been able to follow my thought processes. There are some who trade via stats such as the projected service hold stats ( Daniel Weston’s Mastering Tennis trading) but for me tennis trading is the same as football trading. We are reacting to what is happening in the here and now.
Projected service hold stats, for instance, may work OVER TIME, but not necessarily in the current match of interest.
They are, for me, akin to the Expected Goals stats used by the likes of Timeform. All fancy but of no real substance when your job is to simply find a swing in the odds.
My basic tennis trading strategy comprises of
- A check of the odds. Much like the football, the odds can tell a story. A player under 1.1 odds is, well, hotter than Kelly Brook in a sauna. Players both at odds of 1.9 suggests they may win a set each?
- A check of the ATP and WTA rankings. Is there a serious rankings differential? Is the opponent a qualifier or a wild card? We have see this French Open some very spirited performances from qualifiers , some leading 2-0 but eventually capitulating in the men’s game.
- A check of the first set stats. Tight service games for a player a set down? Competitive?
- Remembering that men’s tennis is the first to 5 sets i.e. 2-0 down is not 2-0 down and out! Ask Basilashvili who we profited from twice as he woke up after being 2-0 down!
Some tennis trading is done on instinct and not projected service hold stats!
I will start to wind down my Grand Slam coverage the deeper in the competition we get. You will probably know why!. Le Creme rises to ze top , as they say in France! In-form players playing each other can make it hard to find a weakness!
I haven’t forgotten the footy! Champions League Final tomorrow! Monsieur Benzema could keep the French theme going. He was pivotal in knocking Man City out! And could be the difference in the Final.
Have Le Great Weekend! ( as they say in France!)