I hope you have enjoyed the tennis coverage on Twitter @drtclub this week. I certainly have, as you can see by the numerous green screens that are available for your inspection on my Twitter feed.
Tennis is a great substitute while we wait for the summer leagues to flesh out (Scandinavian League and Ireland).
You’ll see on Twitter that I am collecting a lot of screenshots. These screenshots will all come in handy when I put the tennis trading methodology together for you all.
This is the first time that I have gone from beginning to end in a tournament which is not a Major. It is a learning experience for me and I have picked up a lot from my focussed exposure to players day-in and day-out.
Here are the main lessons. Pay attention at the back!
- The hint is all you need. Here’s an example: research pointed to me laying Mischa Zverev if he won the first set against Steve Johnson. Zverev indeed did win the first set so I layed him. Steve Johnson took a 3-0 lead in the second set and he traded at odds on while leading. Steve Johnson lost the second set. At 3-0 up he hinted at winning the second set. That was enough to move the market to ensure the trade. One DRT tweeter took the decision to stay in, assuming the second set was done and dusted! Bad decision. So remember, the hint is all you need.
- Retirements. I lost out on two retirements this week and quite frankly I cannot legislate for these. If you see a player take an extended break, either he/she had a vindaloo the night before, or they might be ‘buying time’. If a player calls for a trainer, bail out if you are involved. I am reminded of Caroline Wozniacki and Laura Siegemund this week.
- Research. I am no tennis expert. No siree. But I do the research daily on WTA and ATP tour events. By researching daily, you get to know the players, and this accumulated information will, I hope, uncover the ‘Hoffenheim’ and ‘Werder Bremen’ types of players. The sort who show consistent patterns.
The French Open begins next week so I will be wearing a beret for the duration in order to get into the mood. See you on Twitter @drtclub next week.
Don’t forget the footy!
Football is still being played. Let me introduce you to the idea of ‘contrarian trading’.
A contrary was a member of a North American Indian tribe who deliberately adopted a behaviour which was the opposite of his tribe members. A contrarian trader does the same. An example will illustrate perfectly…
The above example shows the power of contrarian trading. In this match, Ecuador u20 went a goal behind to Saudi Arabia u20.
Ecuador u20 were 1.35 favourites so the market assumption was that they would equalise and push on.
I decided to lay Over 1.5 Goals at odds of 1.07. Liability is low and this being the under 20s, all it takes for these testosterone-laden youngsters to get distracted is the sight of a pretty face in the crowd!
And so the match progressed and that Ecuador u20 goal did not materialise. A £22 liability here could produce a £125 green screen.
The goals did come but Saudi Arabia actually scored next.
I will be showing you some more contrarian examples as I collect them.
In the meantime, get out the baguette and smelly cheese, the beret and very small espresso and join me for Le French Open dans Le Tennis, Rodders, next week.
See you then!