We’ve been kicked in the vernaculars on a couple of occasions this weekend when performing traditional insurance trades, by that pesky 2-0 scoreline.
I tend to perform insurance trades when I feel 1-0 is the best the underdog leading can achieve. But when they turn the scoreline to 2-0, this spells trouble.
To refresh your memory, when an underdog leads 1-0, I do like to lay over 1.5 goals to cover the 1-0 and then back the favoured team in their +1 market.
If the favoured team equalise, we profit!
But if the underdog make it 2-0, that spoils the fun!
So what can we do?
Here are some ideas.
- Instead of laying over 1.5 goals at 1-0, we can lay over 2.5 goals? The insurance premium will be bigger but it will cover the 2-0. BUT will we make a profit if our team equalises?
- We could simply back 2-0 in the correct score market to WIN the amount we have risked in the +1 market. Great, but 2-1 is also a losing correct score for this insurance trade!
- We could go to the correct score market and back 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 to the team leading to BREAK EVEN, and load profit on 1-1, 1-2 for the favoured side. This is called variable profit dutching and ideally requires specialist software to do the calculations.
- We could dispense with insurance, split stakes as following : back the team 1-0 down in the match odds market with half stakes, and then head to the correct score market and back 1-2 to the team 1-0 down with the other half stake.. We may still lose of course at 2-0 but liabilities are reduced in this manner.
Do you have any ideas? Please let me know by email or at DRT Facebook in the comments.
By the way, at DRT Facebook I am providing 2.5 goals and 1.5 goals stats spreadsheets. These are fully interactible. You can sort any of the columns however you wish. You can delete matches which don’t interest, highlight matches and columns which do.
The idea with these spreadsheets is to provide candidates for 2.5 goals trading and under 1.5 goals trading. I’ll be passing on some ideas on this trading in the future.
For me, over 2.5 goals trading needs me to try to secure at least a goal early in the first half ( trade the hint and not the outcome remember)/
I’ll do some investigating on these goals trades. And I’ll be looking at horse racing trading, predominantly the ideas of the Badger ( that’s if the UK Government hasn’t killed him yet ( he could always hide in Brian May’s hair!). There are some great video tutorials on Youtube.
Have a Great weekend and see you for a live chat or two this weekend.