I had an email from a new DRT member this week asking me why there are no conclusions or trading angles in the Daily Bulletin at delayreacttrade.com. I will recount my answer here for you.
There is no form to work with currently so I cannot really come to any conclusions. It is guess work at this early stage of the season. Have you attended a live chat on Twitter? I ask this because there you can see my approach to this part of the season. It is in-play-stats-based, necessarily.
Come November time, the research will be markedly different. Leagues across Europe will have 9+ matches under their belts. I will then be able to notice patterns with the form, and patterns regarding home and away matches.
Below is a screenshot of a league well under way – the Norwegian Eliteserien. Even from these tables we can notice patterns which we can apply to the match.
Pattern 1 – Stroms have not beaten a top 4 side home or away, Rosenborg are 1st.
Pattern 2 – Stroms have two 1-1 draws vs top 4 at home. SO, lay Stroms if Stroms score first.
Pattern 3 – Stroms has not scored more than two goals vs top 4, which reinforces Pattern 2
Pattern 4 – Only one away loss for Rosenborg, but they are unbeaten away vs 6th and lower. The expectation is for Rosenborg not to lose.
Contrast this with Italian Seria A which has just begun…
What possible patterns can I ascertain from only one match played? With Genoa playing home now, they have no home form, so how can I come to a conclusion?
I hope you see, then, why the research currently is not detailed, nor does it offer you strong conclusions. At this stage of the season, we must focus on the in-play stats only.
In-play stats are stats which form as the match is played. So visit Twitter @drtclub and you will see me working with in-play stats.
The research will evolve as the number of matches played evolves. Soon the leagues will look like the Norwegian Eliteserien. To be honest, we need only nine matches really for patterns to emerge and some European leagues are up to four matches already.
Research will get a lot more detailed, believe me. And when that research pre-match is married with the in-play stats, trading calls will get a lot more accurate.