My corked hat is safely packed away. I have tied me kangaroo down. Australia was wonderful. Whale watching at Summer Bay (no Alf Stewart for you Home and Away flamin’ gallahs), and a bit of golf with the kangaroos at Kangaroo Valley (and they were actually better than me, so my dream of a PGA Tour gig is shot down in flames).
Back home now, so I can do some live chats again for you. Apologies for the two-week absence. It’s not every day my sister gets married down under, I hope you understand.
It has largely been a profitable return to live chats, which I am pleased about. I count at least three 10/1+ payouts in the last two live chats alone.
I would just like to talk to you today about what I call the ‘scale of risk’.
If you follow me on a live chat, and follow me verbatim, I want to make you aware that I ‘stretch’ oftentimes.
What do I mean? Let me give you an example.
Let’s take Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona in the Champions League. I had already readied readers for a tight match, thanks to the research. A 0-0 at halftime though, in any Barcelona match, is exploitable.
I opted for 0-2 and 1-2 Correct Scores. I chose 1-2 because Sporting Lisbon had that scoreline v Real Madrid. I chose 0-2 as I thought Sporting showed real defensive qualities against Real Madrid and were unlikely to be battered by Barca.
The final score was 0-1 and that was a Sporting Lisbon own goal scored for Barcelona! I could have traded out of 0-2 and 1-2, the former for a realisable profit.
The point is that there are scales of risk.
Let’s apply the scales of risk to this 0-0 at halftime.
SAFE AS FORKING HOUSES – lay the 0-0 for the second half. You may see higher than is comfortable liabilities though. Lay the draw perhaps.
A BIT MORE RISKY – 0-1 Barcelona Correct Score.
SLIGHTLY MORE RISKY AS WE ONLY HAVE 45 MINS LEFT – 0-2 Barcelona and 1-2. This is where I entered.
RISKIER – 0-3 Barcelona. Great payout but a ‘stretch’ isn’t it? We are pushing Barcelona to score three goals in 45 mins.
So, when you are following me in a live chat this Saturday and Sunday (and there’s no Shielas or tinnies or barbies to distract me), remember the scale of risk.
I tend towards the ‘slightly more risky’ and ‘riskier’ parts of the scale. You should make yourself aware of the ‘safe as forking houses’ option, as you are likely to see a more consistent return.
Great to be back (although living in Manly would be wonderful were it not for the squillions of Aussie dollars required per week in rent, and the fact a live chat starts at midnight) and especially great to be back with profitable live chats.
More to follow this weekend I hope!