DRT Daily Research Bulletin, September 27, 2017
Apologies for slightly late showing on Twitter last night (19:52 instead of 19:45). I am still a little jaded from travelling. I hope you stuck around. It was a profitable live chat, the highlights? A successful 1.1 odds lay and a successful 13.5 back of those perennial Champions League stalwarts, er, Wycombe Wanderers. The most obvious profit in the Champions League was had with a Liverpool equaliser v Spartak, a Man City 0-0 at halftime.
In the English Championship Brentford's 10+ corners pressure told as they equalised late v Derby, Millwall v Reading 0-0 ended 2nd half, Nottingham Forest 1-1 scoreline allowed a profit if you followed research and backed 2-1/1-2.
Please remember on Twitter I sometimes 'stretch', particularly with correct scores. i.e. going 3-0 Man City at halftime when 2-0 was a safer and more attainable option. Remember you have alternatives - I call it a 'scale of risk' from riskiest (which pays out more if it comes off) to more accessible (i.e. laying the 0-0 in Man City match 2nd half instead of looking at City to score 3 goals). As it happened Aguero missed a penalty in what would have been a 3-0 2nd half. The bar steward.
I might live chat at 19:45 tonight but the Champions League matches do look tricky in parts (Basel v Benfica Atl Madrid v Chelsea; Anderlecht v Chelsea) and the 2 Championship matches have the favourite at odds of 2.66 and 2.7. In other words, the market hasn't got a Scooby Doo. If online I will certainly look for trades. Please give me til 20:00 to show my face on Twitter! Just a reminder that the 0-0 at halftime and goals 2nd half had another good night last night and is top of the tree as far as consistently profitable strategies are concerned.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP STAGE
17:00 - Qarabag Fk v Roma - 1.47 Roma
- Azerbaijan v Italian Seria A.
- Group C sees Chelsea as the only winners so far. Qarabag lost 6-0 to Chelsea.
- Roma drew 0-0 with Atl Madrid.
- Roma have a very poor record in the Champions League. 0-0-1-0-0 scored in their last 5 matches v Real Madrid, Porto, and Atl Madrid.
- Qarabag lost to Copenhagen and Chelsea.
- 0-0 for a while may not surprise but this is an easier encounter for Roma you'd think, compared to the likes of Real Madrid, Porto and Atl Madrid.
19:45 - Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona - 1.4 Barcelona
- Sporting only lost 1-2 v Real Madrid and that was after a Lisbon red card. They have beaten Steaua Bucharest and Olympiakos.
- 1-2, 1-2, 0-0 in Sporting's last 3 matches at home.
- Barcelona have recently lost to PSG and Juventus away from home in this competition.
- 0-0 and 3-0 win v Juventus since.
- Barcelona are relatively poor away in the Champions League.Loss v Atl Madrid; win away v Mgladbach; loss v Man City; win v Celtic; loss v PSG and Juventus.
- This is an interesting match and not a gimme for Barcelona. Sporting kept Real Madrid very quiet, with Real only winning after a red card. We may see Sporting lead tonight. We shall see.
19:45 - Juventus v Olympiakos - 1.15 Juventus
- Juventus have lost to Real Madrid and Barcelona in 2 consecutive Champions League matches.
- The loss to Real Madrid ended a run of 4 consecutive home wins for Juventus.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Olympiakos's last 5 Champions League matches.
- Olympiakos beat Partizan and Rijeka away from home in the Champions League.
- The market expects an emphatic home win for Juventus. 3/4 goals, so the market says.
- 3-2 in 2014 the last time Olympiakos visited.
19:45 - FC Basel v Benfica - 2.4 Benfica
- Basel look out of their depth in the Champions League, they have not won in 9 matches.
- 5 losses in 6 matches for Basel v Arsenal (twice), PSG (twice), Manchester United.
- Basel have scored and conceded in their last 4 home matches.
- 3 losses in 4 for Benfica.
- This competition looks a step too far for these 2 teams. Not a match which appeals.
19:45 - Atletico Madrid v Chelsea - 2.16 Atl Madrid
- These 2 have not met since 2014.
- The last 4 defeats for Atl Madrid in this competition came v Bayern Munich (twice), and Real Madrid.
- Can Chelsea's name be uttered in the same sentence as Bayern and Real Madrid?
- Atl Madrid have only 2 home losses in the Champions League since August 2008. 9 wins and 2 0-0's in their last 11 at home.
- Recent Chelsea defeats have come against Paris St Germain.
- This is tough to call. This Chelsea look good under Conte. Atl Madrid have a quite superb home record. Is that enough to expect Atl Madrid not to lose?
19:45 - Anderlecht v Celtic - 2.18 Anderlecht
- Group B is likely to be dominated by Bayern Munich and Paris St Germain.
- Only 2 wins in 21 Champions League matches for Anderlecht. 7 defeats in 8 home matches for Anderlecht.
- Celtic were easily beaten by PSG in their opener.
- Another match making little appeal for me.
19:45 - CSKA Moscow v Man Utd - 1.72 Man Utd
- 5 wins now in the Champions League for CSKA Moscow largely in the early rounds.
- CSKA beat Benfica 1-2. Benfica scored first. CSKA equalised with a penalty.
- 2 1-1 draws, a 1-0 and a 2-0 at home for CSKA.
- It looks a relatively easy group for Man Utd. This is probably the key match between the 2 teams who have won their opening matches.
- I must side with Man Utd not to lose tonight. United are a step up for CSKA.
19:45 - Paris St-G v Bayern Munich - 2.04 PSG
- Since September 2015, PSG have lost only 3 matches, 1-0 away v Real Madrid, 1-0 away v Man City, and 6-1 away v Barcelona.
- Only 1 loss in 24 home matches for PSG was v Barcelona in April 2015.
- Since November 2015, Bayern lost away v Atl Madrid,lost away v Rostov and lost at home to Real Madrid.
- I would have to tentatively side with PSG here today not to lose. It does suggest laying Bayern if Bayern lead.
19:45 - Birmingham v Sheff Wed - 2.66 Sheff Wed
- 1-2 Sheff Wed, 2-1 Birmingham, 3-0 Sheff Wed in the last 3 head to heads.
- At first glance, Sheff Wed have the better season long form. So why are they so cold in the betting?
- 5 losses in 6 matches for Birmingham. Only 1 win for them this season.
- Birmingham have scored 2 goals only in one match.
- Only 1 clean sheet for Birmingham who have conceded all bar 1 home goal in the 2nd half.
- Only 2 losses for Sheff Wed this season. They have scored in 7 of their last 8 matches and only lost one of those matches.
- 1-2-2-1-3 goals before halftime in Sheff Wed matches recently.
- Sheff Wed have yet to concede a goal away in the first hour of matches.
- I don't know why the market is non-commital here. Sheff Wed have the better form this season. Birmingham have scored 2 goals only once.
- This suggests to me that Birmingham are layable if scoring first. I must remind you that 2.66 odds for a favourite suggests that for some reason the market cannot split the teams despite what I see in the form.
19:45 - Sheff Utd v Wolves - 2.7 Wolves
- This is another English Championship match where the market cannot split the sides. Does the research suggest a stronger favourite?
- These 2 last met in League One.
- No draw this season.
- 5 wins in 6 matches may be the reason the market is so non-commital.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
- Not met the top 12 at home this season. Wolves early season are 2nd so we need to put this apparent good form for Sheff Utd into context.
- 4 of 5 goals scored at home came 1st half.
- Failed to score only once.
- Unbeaten away from home.
- 10 2nd half goals in the last 3 Wolves matches.
- Not met top 11 away from home yet. Sheff Utd are 4th.
- Tough to get an angle in here as Sheff Utd are yet to meet a top 12 side at home and Wolves yet to meet a top 11 side away. Their solid form needs this context.
- If 0-0 at halftme, not the last 3 Wolves matches saw 10 2nd half goals.