I hope you’re enjoying the tennis and those cries of ‘Come on Ghandi!’ To be honest I haven’t quite worked out how the saviour of India from colonial rule is connected to Wimbledon yet… maybe I need my hearing tested.
If you head on over to twitter @drtclub you can join me as I seek to find some value trades.
I have also taken some screenshots to give you an idea of how the odds can swing in tennis matches:
Above is the profit graph for Heather Watson when she played Ann Beck.
Research is always recommended. You can do simple research at www.matchstat.com under Today’s Matches.
Note rankings. If the rankings are tight, then this might suggest a tight match. And so it was in this case. Our intrepid hero Heather Watson (Guernsey’s Finest!) was a 1.41 shot to win this match.
Here is the basic research I came up with.
“55th v 43rd in the rankings, so tight rankings. Head to head back in 2011. 4 losses in 5 for Heather. She is short given this is Wimbledon. I fear this may not be as straightforward as the odds suggest so would lay Heather if Heather wins the first set.”
In tennis trading, we are looking for that all-elusive ‘trading angle’.
We have it here. We think this match will be tight and Heather Watson can be layed, especially if she wins the first set.
Why Heather?
Well, she was the 1.41 odds favourite. If she wins the first set, her odds will be even lower. This presents a good opportunity to lay her at short odds in a match that we think will be tight.
As you can see Heather wins the first set.
Now is the time to lay Heather Watson at odds of 1.25. Beck wins the 2nd set. Perfect. Trade out of your lay of Heather.
The match continues. In the 3rd set, Heather’s odds reached a high of 9. I backed Heather at odds of 6 when Beck was leading 4 games to 1.
Why?
Remember what I said about this match being potentially tight? Oh, and Heather being a Brit… playing at Wimbledon will inspire her.
This ‘trading angle’ worked as Heather worked her way back to 4 games all. Let me remind you of how this translated in the price graph.
Of course, we would all love to back Heather at odds of 9 but practically speaking it is very difficult to back at the top of the market and lay at the bottom of the market.
Therefore there were 2 profitable trades: a lay of Heather and a back of Heather.
Yes, I profited from the back trade despite Heather losing the match. Why? Because she fought back to 4 - 4. (Heather’s odds were as short as 1.45 at one stage!)
So, tennis trading is about:
1) Picking your battles. We do not have to trade every match
2) Choosing your ‘angles in’, based on quick research
3) Executing
Remember, with tennis that you only need the HINT that your trading angle is likely to come about in order to trade profitably.
There have been plenty of other profitable tennis trades over these early days at Wimbledon (and yes, some which went awry!)
I will be working on a manual for you to complement the football. I will continue to collect examples via twitter @drtclub in order to put together some real world examples for you.
Tennis trading is a great addition to the DRT stable.
In the meantime, join with me and shout ‘COME ON GHANDI!’ (Erm, I think you mean ‘Come on Andy!’ – the editor).
Have a great weekend.