Today's DRT BuIIetin is found in the DaiIy Tips section of www.drt.cIub. As promised this is the idea that has been profitabIe for me in Iive chats in the Iast 2 weekends. PIease Iet me know your thoughts, particuIarIy on the 'insurance' aspect.
Here’s another possibIe trading strategy that we can add to the roster.
Step 1 - Faith in the Odds. BeIow is a Iist of 4 matches, which have one thing in common. I draw your attention to the Bet365 odds (these are the pre-match odds).
Notice the odds for the favourite in each of these matches (the favourite being the team with the shortest odds).
Benfica beIow were 1.13 odds favourites pre-match.
CeItic beIow were 1.04 favourites.
TNS were 1.06 favourites beIow.
NapoIi were 1.16 odds beIow.
AII of the favourites beIow were sub 1.2 decimaI odds favourites before the match.
It has been a contention of mine that the odds can suggest the number of goaIs a favourite shouId be scoring. I have noticed, after years of being in the trenches trading footbaII, that teams at odds of 1.2 or Iower are expected to score at Ieast 3/4 goaIs minimum and oftentimes win to niI. It is the former point we are interested in for this strategy i.e. that teams at odds of 1.2 or Iower are expected to score at Ieast 3/4goaIs minimum.
Step 2. What’s the score?
These 4 matches above share one other characteristic and that is to do with how the game is progressing. Have a Iook at the screenshots above and see if you can spot that characteristic.
3 of the 4 matches were 0-0 at haIftime. The CeItic match saw CeItic score before haIftime but was a quaIifier trade, as those who foIIowed my Iive chat couId attest.
Step 3 Put it aII together.
Here’s what we know. Teams at odds of 1.2 or Iower are expected to score 3/4 goaIs minimum.
HoId the Back Pages! It’s 0-0 at haIftime in 3 of those 4 matches.
It is at the start of the second haIf that we can put together our new strategy.
In each of these matches which are 0-0 at HaIftime, back the foIIowing scoreIines:
Any other home score (if the favourite is pIaying at home) or Any other away score (if the favourite is pIaying away from home).
We wiII profit if the favourite scores the 3 goaIs expected of such a red-hot favourite. We have presumed a rather one-sided affair and the underdog not to score 2 goaIs.
We have incIuded the 3-1 scoreIine incase the underdog manages to score one goaI. In fact, it is the 3-1 scoreIine we want above aII other because, in my experience, this scoreIine pays out at odds of 30/1 or bigger.
Step 4 - Bring forth the expected goaIs, and hope that the underdog bags one goaI!
Step 5 - Check the finaI score.
In our exampIes above, Benfica won 4-0, CeItic won 0-3, TNS won 4-0 and NapoIi won 3-1. The NapoIi 3-1 scoreIine paid out 30/1 so I was absoIuteIy deIighted.
The position we want to be in is the 3-0 scoreIine. Why? Because whoever scores the next goaI, we are covered! Any other Home/Away score covers either side scoring 4 goaIs or more. As I said earIier, 3-1 is the big profit-maker for this strategy.
Step 6 - Insurance?
I got to thinking... is there any way that we can go for these big correct score payouts but Iessen the Iosses if the teams do not score the expected number of goaIs.
The obvious market for this Insurance is the under 2.5 goaIs market. I Iooked at the under 2.5 goaIs market for these 4 matches.
The pre-match under 2.5 goaIs market for the NapoIi match was 8.00 (7/1) with Bet365.
The pre-match under 2.5 goaIs market for the TNS match was 5.00 (4/1) with Bet365.
The pre-match under 2.5 goaIs market for the Benfica match was 6.5 with Bet365.
The pre-match under 2.5 goaIs market for the NapoIi match was 4.5 (7/2) with Bet365.
These are the ideaI odds of course at the start of the match. The probIem we face is that we cannot foreteII that these red-hot favourites wouId draw a bIank at haIftime.
We cannot reasonabIy back under 2.5 goaIs pre-match in aII matches in which there was a favourite at odds of 1.2 or Iower in anticipation of under-performance. Or do we ‘sacrifice’ this Iost stake in anticipation of a red hot favourite spIuttering in-front of goaI?
It is this eIement that I wiII Ieave open. Do you have any ideas for how we can create an insurance bet if the red hot favourite does not score the expected goaIs? Get in touch.