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The following sides have Champions League football up-coming. This can often affect performance in the domestic league prior to the Champions League match. Note too this is a unique weekend, post International Break and pre-Champions League. It is a fine balancing act that some managers have to make, particularly if their squad lacks depth.
  • Lyon; Zenit; Inter Milan; Slavia Prague; Chelsea; Valencia; Ajax; Lille; Benfica; Leipzig; Dortmund; Barcelona; Napoli; Liverpool; Salzburg; Genk.
  • Club Brugge; Galatasary; Olympiakos; Tottenham; PSG; Real Madrid; Bayern Munich; Red Star; Shakhtar; Man City; Dinamo Zagreb; Atalanta; Atl Madrid; Juventus; Bayer Leverkusen; Lokomotiv Moscow.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Liverpool v Newcastle - 1.15 Liverpool

  • Match outcome: Liverpool have won 11/12 home matches against middle-third teams while Newcastle have lost 11/12 away matches against top-six teams. Newcastle have lost by two or more goals in 6/11 away matches against top-six teams.
  • New manager for Newcastle.
  • Liverpool have won all 4 matches, scoring 2 goals at least and conceded in 3 of those matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime yet for the Pool. 3/4 goals scored at home ties in with a 1.15 quote.
  • Newcastle look limited attack wise. 0-1 - 1-1 goals scored in their 4 matches will not suffice here unless they repeat the strangling of Tottenham's shots on target.
  • Sub 1.2 means if 0-0 at 20 minutes, back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime score market.
  • The value? 0-1 Newcastle repeat their Tottenham hatchet job. Highly unlikely though.

15:00 kick off

Wolves v Chelsea - 2.54 Chelsea

  • An improving Wolves plays newly managed Chelsea.
  • 1st goal: Wolves have conceded first in 10/17 home matches while Chelsea have won 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams. Chelsea have scored first in 14/19 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 3 draws and a 3-2 loss v Everton for Wolves. Yet to win. Both teams have scored in the last 3 matches. Wolves conceded first in their last 3 matches.
  • Both teams scored in Chelsea's last 3 matches without them losing. 2 goals at least conceded in 3/4 matches for Chelsea.
  • No wonder it's 2.54 the favourite here. A tough match to read.
  • Both teams to score looks a play. And note Wolves are very adept at coming from behind, albeit after a small sample of 3 matches.

Tottenham v Crystal Palace - 1.38 Tottenham

  • A London Derby. Note that.
  • Match outcome: Spurs have won 11/17 home matches and they have scored first in 11/17 home matches. C Palace have drawn the first half in 14/20 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • 3-2-0-2 goals scored by Tottenham with only 1 win. They conceded at home v Villa and Newcastle. Palace have kept clean sheets in their 2 home matches and conceded 1 goal in each of their 2 away matches. They are on a 2 match winning run and are yet another side who managed to strangle the life out of Man Utd's shots on target (much like Newcastle did to Tottenham).
  • Will Tottenham score 2 goals yet again? Or will their shots on target be severely restricted as Palace did to United? Intriguing match where my initial instinct is that Spurs odds are too short.

Sheff Utd v Southampton - 2.58 Sheff Utd

  • 1st half outcome: Middle-third promoted teams have drawn the first half in 52% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15 while there have been -2.5 goals in 11/15 Southampton away matches against promoted teams. Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 51% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
  • A very solid start for Sheff Utd all things considered.Sole loss v a solid Leicester. But worryingly conceding 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches.
  • Sheff Utd have scored in all matches so far.
  • 2 losses, a win and a draw for Saints so far. 0-1-2-1 goals scored.
  • 2.58 sums it up. Tough to read.

Man Utd v Leicester - 1.84 Man Utd

  • Match outcome: Leicester have lost 9/13 away matches against top-half teams and they have conceded first in 7/10 away matches. Man Utd have drawn the first half in 8/10 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Footballformlabs has not factored in new manager syndrome for either side.
  • A poor recent record for Leicester away to top 6 side. Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss, Draw.
  • Only 2 wins in 8 at home for Man Utd, under Ole, v the top half sides.
  • Win, Draw, Loss, Draw for United so far this season....and Ole is still employed?
  • At home, United beat Chelsea 4-0 and lost 1-2 to Palace.
  • 2 draws and 2 wins for Leicester under Ted Rodgers and Dusty Bin. 0-0 v Wolves and 1-1 v Chelsea suggests an ability to keep a tight rein on the top sides under Rodgers. Remember Palace stifled United shots on target in their last home match and that worked. Leicester could do similar.
  • 3 goals in 2 matches now for Vardy suggests Rodgers is getting a tune out of him, much as he did at the end of last season.
  • 1.84 is too short for me v a sturdy Leicester. I would consider laying United if they score first.

Brighton v Burnley - 2.3 Brighton

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/13 Brighton home matches and in 9/13 Burnley away matches against bottom-six teams. Burnley have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Identical form these 2 at the start of the season - win, draw, 2 defeats.
  • Burnley's 2 defeats came v Arsenal and Liverpool. Burnley did beat Southampton who in turn beat Brighton.
  • 1-1 v West Ham and 0-2 loss v Southampton for Brighton at home this season.
  • I personally would look to Burnley here given they are free of the shackles of Europa League football which plagued their season last season.

17:30 - Norwich v Man City - 1.18 Man City

  • HT/FT: Man City have had W/W double results in 8/12 away matches and they have won 8/10 away matches against promoted teams. Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
  • 4-1-3-2 goals conceded by Norwich so far augurs well for Man City who have scored 5-2-3-4 goals. Simple angle in here. City 2+ goals.
  • No 0-0 at halftime either team yet. Note that too of this 1.18 shot.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Real Madrid v Levante - 1.3 Real Madrid

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Real Madrid home matches against top-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 7/10 such matches. Levante have conceded first in 13/14 away matches.
  • A win and 2 score draws for Real Madrid. Both teams have scored.
  • 1-0 loss, 2-1 win, 2-0 win Levante so far. The loss came away.
  • 1-2 loss and 1-2 win Real v Levante last season. Some of the Real Madrid marquee signings are injured. Check team news.
  • Levante were really tight away last season. 1-0, 1-0, 1-2 win, 3-1, 0-1 win v the top 5 away last season.
  • Prepare for that but expect Real to perform and note that they are a Champions League side.

15:00 - Leganes v Villarreal - 2.7 Leganes

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Leganes home matches against bottom-half teams while Villarreal have drawn the first half in 11/20 away matches. Leganes have drawn the first half in 8/12 home matches against bottom-half teams.
  • the market suggests we look elsewhere for readable matches.
  • No clean sheets in 3 losses for Leganes, all one-goal-in-it and 2 were 1-0.
  • 3/3 0-0 at halftime for Leganes.
  • 4-4, 2-1 loss, 2-2 for Villareal in stark contrast. Villareal were unlucky to lose to Levante (2 penalties).
  • Defence v Attack here? Villareal, if keeping the scoring up, may simply outscore this defensively led Levante side.

17:30 - Sociedad v Atletico Madrid - 2.18 Atl Madrid

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Real Sociedad home matches against top-six teams. Atl. Madrid have scored first in 8/11 away matches against bottom-half teams.
  • 1-1, 0-1 win, 2-0 defeat for Sociedad this season. All under 2.5 goals. 2 1-0 wins for Atl Madrid and a battling 3-2 win (great trading match). 2 goals scored by Atl Madrid post 70th minute. This was a pattern last season.
  • 2 2-0 wins for Atl Madrid v Sociedad in head to heads last season. The away win was only 1 of 2 away v the top 10. Clear struggles. Have Atl Madrid adequately replayed Griezemann up front? Morata was a damp squib in the UK. Costa is a reliable war horse.
  • I would watch out for late Atl Madrid goals as per last year.

20:00 - Barcelona v Valencia - 1.44 Barcelona

  • Match outcome: Barcelona have won 11/13 home matches against middle-third teams while Valencia have lost 5/8 away matches against Big Two teams. Barcelona have won by two or more goals in 9/13 home matches.
  • 2-1 Barca, 1-1, 2-2 in recent league head to heads.
  • Poor start Barcelona. Loss, Win, Draw. 5-2 win and 2-2 last 2 matches. Starting to purr.
  • Draw, Loss, Win for Valencia.
  • Barcelona goals enough for us to expect? The head to heads are enough for us to expect.....Valencia to quash the shorties. The value is in laying Barcelona based on recent history, particularly any 2-0 lead.
  • soccerway.com still has Messi and Suarez out injured, making those 1.44 odds mighty short. But a player named after me....Fati....is stepping up to the plate along with a certain Antoine Griezemann so Barcelona may not be hugely inconvenienced.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:30 - Paris St-G v Strasbourg - 1.22 PSG

  • Match outcome: Paris St-G have won 13/14 home matches against bottom-six teams while Strasbourg have lost 6/10 away matches against top-six teams. Paris St-G have had W/W double results in 16/20 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • No win yet for Strasbourg sees 3 draws and a loss. Only 1 away match was a 0-0.
  • 3-0 and 4-0 at home for PSG who have had 3 wins and a loss.
  • All 3 wins were to nil for PSG.
  • Champions League on Wednesday for PSG.
  • We must favour PSG. Do look out for team news (possible changes post International and pre-Champions League).

17:00 - Bordeaux v Metz - 1.89 Bordeaux

  • 1st goal: Bordeaux have scored first in 7/11 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 65% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Bottom-six promoted teams have lost 59% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
  • Bordeaux lost their opener, and were unbeaten next 3, albeit 2 1-1 draws and a win.
  • Newly promoted Metz started well with a 1-1 v Strasbourg and 3-0 win v Monaco. But 2 consecutive losses now v Angers and PSG.
  • No 0-0 at halftime for either side.
  • The natural inclination is to oppose the newly promoted side particularly away from home.

19:00 - Montpellier v Nice - 1.97 Montpellier

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Montpellier home matches against top-six teams and in 7/8 Nice away matches against middle-third teams. Nice have drawn the first half in 7/11 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • 4 matches into the season and all 2-1 scorelines for Nice this season, 3 wins and a loss.
  • 0-1 loss, 1-1, 1-0 win, 1-0 loss for Montpellier.
  • Montpellier look tight defensively but limited up front...so far. Nice look as if they can recover if conceding first, if this 2-1 pattern continues. On 3 occasions they have conceded, they won!
  • 1-0 win and 1-0 loss for Montpellier v Nice last season. Only 3 home losses for Montpellier last season.
  • 4 of Nice's 5 wins away were 0-1.

19:00 - Brest v Rennes - 2.42 Rennes

  • -2.5 goals: Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 52% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Rennes have conceded first in 8/9 away matches against promoted teams.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 win v Reims and 3-0 loss away v Nimes for Brest.
  • 3 wins, including v PSG, and a 1-2 loss v Nice for Rennes so far this season. What a start.
  • The market does not want to pick sides. Brest are newly promoted. That may be the reason.
  • Watching brief but a slight favouring of Rennes here.

19:00 - Dijon v Nimes - 2.6 Nimes

  • The market advises a watching brief.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 14/17 Dijon home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/8 Nimes away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 Nimes away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Dijon must(ard) get a win soon. 4/4 defeats failing to score in their last 3 matches.
  • 2 defeats, a 2-2 draw v Monaco and a 3-0 win v Brest for Nimes. Nimes only failed to score against PSG.
  • 1-3-2-2 total goals before halftime for Nimes.
  • Dijon will get a win at some point. I do like Nimes goal scoring.

ITALIAN SERIA A

Fiorentina v Juventus - 1.76 Juventus

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Fiorentina home matches and they have drawn the first half in 6/11 home matches. Juventus have scored first in 13/16 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Juventus have won the last 4 head to heads.
  • Juve may be unnaturally impacted by post-Internationals and pre-Champions League so please do check out the team news.
  • 3-4 and 2-1 for Fiorentina so far. 3-4 v Napoli caught the eye.
  • 0-1 win v Parma and 4-3 win v Napoli for Juventus.
  • In the 2 matches each, no 0-0 at halftime.
  • Football form labs under 2.5 goals assertion may be tested looking at Fiorentina's scorelines and Juve's scoreline v Napoli.
  • I would favour Juventus but must check team news.

Napoli v Sampdoria - 1.27 Napoli

  • 3-2 Napoli, 0-2 Napoli, 3-0 Sampdoria, and 3-0 Napoli in the last 4 head to heads.
  • 2 3-4 scorelines for Napoli this season. 3-4 win v Fiorentina and 4-3 loss v Juventus.
  • Napoli have already shown an aura of trustworthiness in coming from behind against these 2 sides. So let's hope for Sampdoria lead at some point.
  • 0-3 and 4-1 losses for Sampdoria this season. It could be a long 90 minutes for Samp. A look at our Champions League list above sees Napoli playing on Tuesday.

Inter v Udinese - 1.33 Inter

  • Match outcome: Inter Milan have won 12/18 home matches while Udinese have lost 9/10 away matches against top-six teams. Udinese have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.
  • 1-0 Inter and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.
  • Good start Inter 4-0 v Lecce and 1-2 win v Cagliari.
  • 1-0 win v AC Milan for Udinese and 1-3 loss v Parma.
  • Lukaku is a great signing for Inter. A goal in each match so far.
  • Do note the head to heads (tight) but do note that significant signing for Inter.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

12:00 - Hamilton v Celtic - 1.18 Celtic

  • Match outcome: Hamilton Ac have lost 6/7 home matches against Big One teams while Celtic have won 8/10 away matches. Hamilton Ac have had L/L double results in 5/7 home matches against Big One teams.
  • 2 consecutive 3-0 wins for Celtic in head to heads.
  • 100% wins for Celtic scoring 7-5-3-2 goals.
  • Only 1 win for Hamilton came v Kilmarnock.
  • 1.18 suggests 3+ goals Celtic. No 0-0 at halftime yet for Celtic or Hamilton.

15:00 - Kilmarnock v Hibernian - 2.32 Kilmarnock

  • Asian handicap: Kilmarnock have won by two or more goals in 6/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hibernian have had L/L double results in 6/8 away matches against top-half teams. Hibernian have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches against top-half teams.
  • 3-0 Kilmarnock, 0-0 and 1-0 Kilmarnock last 3 head to heads.
  • 2 losses, a 0-0 and a 0-1 win v St Johnstone for Kilmarnock this season.2 consecutive clean sheets for Kilmarnock.
  • A win, 2 losses and a 2-2 for Hibs.
  • No strong angles here at all bar to say Kilmarnock in head to heads were pretty defensively sound.

15:00 - Rangers v Livingston - 1.23 Rangers

  • 1st half outcome: Rangers have won the first half in 14/20 home matches while Livingston have conceded first in 12/18 away matches. Rangers have had W/W double results in 13/20 home matches.
  • 2  consecutive Rangers 3-0 wins in head to heads.
  • 3 wins and a loss v Celtic for Rangers this season.
  • That Celtic loss was the only time Rangers did not score.
  • 2 draws and 2 wins for Livingston. Both teams have scored last 3 matches without Livingston losing. 2-2 and 1-4 away.
  • Livingston have not met the top 2 yet! Do note the head to heads.

15:00 - Hearts v Motherwell - 2.34 Hearts

  • 1st half outcome: Hearts have drawn the first half in 8/12 home matches against top-half teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 12/15 Motherwell away matches against bottom-six teams. Motherwell have won 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 1-0 Hearts, 2-1 Motherwell in head to heads last season.
  • No win yet for Hearts with 2 consecutive home draws. Losses for Hearts came away v Aberdeen and Celtic.
  • Motherwell's only defeat came v Celtic. 0-0 v Livingston, 1-3 win v Hamilton and 3-0 win v Hibernian.
  • Both sides have lost v last season top 3 so could be well matched here today. Head to heads are shared too which further compounds our problems in finding an angle.
  • Hearts will win at some point.

15:00 - Ross Co v St Mirren - 2.16 Ross Co

  • 1st goal: Middle-third promoted teams have scored first in 52% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15 while St Mirren have conceded first in 11/12 away matches. St Mirren have lost 11/20 away matches.
  • Ross County are newly promoted.
  • Both sides have just the single win this season. Ross have scored in their 2 home matches but failed to score in their 2 away matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for St Mirren came in their win. 3 other defeats, 2 were 1-0.
  • St Mirren, if they lose, only just lose.
  • Watching brief still with a newly promoted side in Ross County.

15:00 - Aberdeen v St Johnstone - 1.62 Aberdeen

  • HT/FT: Aberdeen have had W/W double results in 7/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while St Johnstone have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 trips to top half non-Big One teams. Aberdeen have won 16/20 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 0-2 St Johnstone and 0-2 Aberdeen last 2 head to heads. Away wins.
  • 2 wins at home for Aberdeen saw them score 3 goals. They failed to score away.
  • No win for St Johnstone conceding 7-2-2-1 goals. St Johnstone are likely to concede here and even 2 goals. An angle today? Can we continue to trust Aberdeen at home?

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Ajax v Heerenveen - 1.17 Ajax

  • HT/FT: Ajax have had W/W double results in 15/16 home matches while Heerenveen have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 trips to Big Two teams. Ajax have won 7/8 home matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
  • It tends to be 3+ goals from Ajax in head to heads. That is bang in line with a 1.17 quote.
  • Champions League football for Ajax - will that impact on performance.
  • 2-5-4-4 goals scored by Ajax so far. Win, Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw for Heerenveen this season. 1-1 v Feyenoord came at home.
  • Expectation throughout is for 3+ goals from Ajax as long as the curse of the Champions League abaits.
  • If 0-0 after 20 minutes back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted Ajax in the halftime score market.

17:30 - AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Rotterdam - 1.55 AZ

  • Match outcome: AZ Alkmaar have won 10/12 home matches while top-six promoted teams have conceded first in 55% of away matches against top half non-Big Two teams since 2014-15. Top-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 55% of away matches against top half non-Big Two teams since 2014-15.
  • Newly promoted Sparta really should struggle v AZ.
  • 2 wins, a 0-0 and a loss v Vitesse for AZ this season.
  • Both teams have scored in all of Sparta's matches this season. 2-4-2-2-1 goals scored. Sparta scored only a single goal v Ajax. Will they be stifled by AZ? 2-1-1-2-4 goals conceded by Sparta should leave them vulnerable if leading.

18:45 - VVV Venlo v FC GRONINGEN - 2.52 FC Groningen

  • 1st half outcome: VVV-Venlo have drawn the first half in 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Groningen away matches against middle-third teams. There have been -1.5 goals in 9/13 Groningen away matches.
  • no draw for VVV this season.3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win came v Waalwijk.
  • Only 1 win for Groningen came first match of the season.
  • I'll leave this to the in-play stats.

19:45 - FC Utrecht v Emmen - 1.35 FC Utrecht

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 13/17 Utrecht home matches and in 6/8 Emmen away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. Emmen have lost the first half in 7/8 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
  • 1-2 Emmen and 2-0 Emmen last 2 head to heads. Interesting given the market.
  • 2 wins, a draw and 2 losses for FC Utrecht, scoring and conceding in all matches to date.
  • No 0-0 at halftime yet.
  • 4 defeats and a 2-0 win v Heerenveen for Emmen this season. That was the only clean sheet.
  • The odds reflect current form but not head to heads.

19:45 - PSV v Vitesse Arnhem - 1.44 PSV

  • Match outcome: PSV have won 13/14 home matches against top-six teams while Vit. Arnhem have lost 9/10 away matches against Big Two teams. PSV have had W/W double results in 8/11 home matches against top-six teams.
  • 1-0 PSV and 3-3 last 2 head to heads. As tight as I would have expected.
  • Both sides are unbeaten this season. A draw and 3 wins PSV. They have scored in all matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Vitesse. 2-2-3-1-2 goals scored by Vitesse this season.
  • This could be tighter than the odds suggest so watch out. It is certainly a match I am keen to follow via the in-play stats to see in what frame of mind Vitesse are (decent head to head record and solid scoring already this season).

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

14:30 - Spartak Moscow v Ural - 1.55 Spartak Moscow

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Spartak M. Home matches while FC Ural have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams. FC Ural have lost 11/14 away matches against top-six teams.
  • 1-2 Ural and 0-1 Spartak last 2 league head to heads.
  • we're getting to the amount of matches in Russia where patterns will start to be seen.

Spartak Moscow (6th)

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Loss last 4 home matches. Loss v a Zenit side re-discovering their scoring touch.
  • Both teams scored in Spartak's last 3 wins.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded 2 goals at home.
  • All 3 home goals scored 2nd half.

Ural (8th)

  • 4 defeats in 6 matches.
  • All 3 wins came at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded in their last 6 matches.

Conclusions

  • Only 2 away matches for Ural. They do tend to score and concede so look perhaps at laying them if they score first.
  • Spartak have not conceded 2 goals at home so that doubly suggests laying Ural if they score first.
  • Note Ural have not had a 0-0 at halftime yet.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

19:00 - Benfica v Gil Vicente - 1.14 Benfica

  • Match outcome: Benfica have won 10/10 home matches against promoted teams while middle-third promoted teams have lost 52% of away matches against Big Three teams since 2014-15. Benfica have had W/W double results in 8/11 home matches against promoted teams.
  • Newly promoted Gil Vicente are likely to be battered, so says the odds.
  • 3 wins and a loss v Porto for Benfica. The wins were to nil.
  • Gil Vicente beat Porto 2-1 at home. Surprise today? They lost 3-0 away to Moreirense though and that is in keeping with Benfica's 1.14 quote.
  • 2 consecutive draws includes a 1-1 v top 4 Braga.
  • Gil Vicente are unbeaten v 2 of the top 4 they have played. But the market expects 3+ goals from Benfica.
  • 1.14 odds also suggests a trialling of my 20 minute strategy. If 0-0 at 20 minutes, back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime score market.

21:30 - Guimaraes v Aves - 1.55 Guimaraes

  • 1st goal: Vitoria S.C. have scored first in 11/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while Desp. Aves have lost 11/19 away matches. Vitoria S.C. have won 14/20 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 1-1 and 0-2 Aves the last 2 head to heads in the league.
  • 3 1-1 draws and a loss v Porto for Guimaraes. Conceding without losing outside of the top 3.
  • Aves have scored and conceded in all matches, losing 3 of them.
  • It does all suggest that Aves may score without winning.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

12:30 - Orebro v Sundsvall - 2.16 Orebro

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Orebro home matches and in 10/19 GIF Sundsvall away matches. GIF Sundsvall have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against top-half teams.

Orebro (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches with just the one loss.
  • 7 0-1 losses at halftime at home.
  • Draw, Win, Win at home v 13th and lower.
  • 1-2 win v Sundsvall earlier this season.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sundsvall (16th)

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 7 losses and a draw last 8 matches.
  • 7 losses and a draw last 8 away matches.
  • Conceded last 11 away matches.
  • No away win.

Conclusions

  • Surely on probability alone, Sundsvall are more likely to draw or lose? Orebro are scoring and conceding of late with only 1 loss so if Sundsvall score first, I think that they are layable. Remember Orebro have kept only 2 clean sheets so they really could concede today.