DRT Daily Research Bulletin, November 18, 2017

I hope you saw yesterday why I emphasize post-International and pre-Champions League. Dortmund lose their 4th consecutive pre-Champions League match. Monaco added to Amiens collection of 1-1 draws. I have emphasized the teams playing Champions League this week. Will they falter as Monaco and Dortmund did? Live chat at 14:30.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
12:30 - Arsenal v Tottenham - 2.52 Arsenal
- I tend to leave high profile derby matches alone. There is always the chance of a red card to disadvantage any research.
- Arsenal have not won any of the last 4 head to heads but score drew 3 of them.
- Arsenal are yet to meet top 8 at home so their 100% record needs a context.
- Tottenham have only met one of the top 6 away and lost 0-1.
- As I say, watching brief but no angles for me. The in-play stats will reveal all.
15:00 - Bournemouth v Huddersfield - 1.96 Bournemouth
Bournemouth
- Only 3 wins hence a bottom 4 place.
- Only 1 home win.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- 7 0-0's at halftime this season and only 1 0-0 at fulltime.
- 4 0-0;s at halftime at home.
- Only 3 goals scored at home. 5 goals conceded 2nd half at home.
Huddersfield
- Only 4 wins but won their last 2 home matches.
- Failed to score in their last 4 away matches.
- Only 1 away win v Palace was their first away match of the season.
- 6 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- I would take note of any 0-0 at halftime and lay the 0-0 2nd half as these 2, if they concede, concede 2nd half at home (B'mouth) and away (Huddersfield) but their goalscoring is poor so I would try and delay to get a low odds 0-0 lay.
- 2 teams in poor form. Huddersfield have failed to score in their last 3 away but Bournemouth have only 2 clean sheets and have scored only 3 home goals. Unappealing.
15:00 - Burnley v Swansea - 2.14 Burnley
- 0-1 Swansea, 0-1 Swansea and 3-2 Swansea last 3 head to heads.
Burnley (7th)
- Only 2 defeats v West Brom and Man City.
- 0-1-0-1-1 scored at home saw only 2 wins.
- 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Failed to score only 3 times.
- 1-1 v 18th and 1-0 v 20th at home.
Swansea (19th)
- 5 defeats in 6 matches.
- Only 2 wins.
- Unbeaten at halftime away.
- 2 0-0's, a 1-0 and a 2-1 away v teams above them.
Conclusions
- Burnley do not inspire at all. Lacking up front, they have managed only one loss when only scoring a maximum of one goal.
- Their form v bottom 3 at home is 1-1 and 1-0.
- This could be a snooze fest. Back 0-0 pre match and hope that these poor goal scorers pick up a 0-0 at least until halftime?
15:00 - C Palace v Everton - 2.58 Palace
- New manager syndrome for both of these teams means no head to heads worth checking out, and no in-depth research.
- Palace are vastly improved against London opponents. Alas that does not include Everton!
- Palace have conceded in all matches.
- Everton's 3 wins have only come at home. New manager currently so tough to read them.
- A brilliant 3-2 win last match under new manager at home saw Everton 0-2 down.
- A match I am none too keen on until we see the managers' stamps on the clubs.
15:00 - Leicester v Man City - 1.36 Man City
- Head to heads pretty irrelevant given managerial changes and Man City finding some money round the back of the settee.
- Man City play Feyenoord in the Champions League this coming week.
Leicester (12th)
- 2 goals scored at least in each of their last 3 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets. Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- 2-1-2-1-2 scored at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- No 0-0 at home.
- Not met top 3 yet but rather ominously have lost all matches v top 6, conceding 2 goals at least in each.
Man City (1st)
- All wins bar that draw with Everton.
- Scored 3 goals at least in 7 of their last 8 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
- No 0-0.
Conclusions
- As you can probably deduce, Man City are not affected pre-Champions League.
- The fact Leicester are losing to top 6 sides indicates an away win today. Leicester may yet score but they have to stop City scoring their traditional 3 goals.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on stats.
- Leicester have upped their goalscoring of late to 2 goals. They may achieve that today but not win.
15:00 - Liverpool v Southampton - 1.46 Liverpool
- 0-0, 1-0 Saints, 0-1 Saints, 0-0 in the last 4 head to heads.
- Liverpool play Sevilla in the Champions League next week.
Liverpool (5th)
- 3-3 v Watford; 1-0 v Palace; 5-0 loss to Man City; 2-3 win v Leicester; 0-0 v Man Utd; 3-0 win v Huddersfield are the pre Champions league results for Liverpool.
- Not the best results in the world. Struggles v Palace, needed to outscore Leicester, failed to score v the Manchesters.
- 2 losses came away v Man City and Tottenham.
- Unbeaten at home.
- Failed to score only twice.
- Unbeaten at halftime at home.
- Only lost to the top 3 this season.
- Only 1 goal conceded at home.
Southampton (13th)
- Only 3 wins, 2 were 1-0 only.
- 0-1-1-1 scored away.
- Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches.
- Not played top 7 away yet.
- All wins have come v the bottom 5.
Conclusions
- Liverpool do lapse pre Champions League but the fact remains this season that they have conceded only 1 goal at home (yes I was shocked too!) and lost only away to the top 3.
- Liverpool really should be eyeing this as a win despite tight head to heads.
- Southampton are poor goalscorers, albeit scoring 0-1-1-1 away recently. 2 of their 3 season wins were 1-0 and I cannot see them keeping Liverpool quiet. 3-1-0-3-1-3 scored by Liverpool pre Champions League.
- Southampton must be layed if scoring first.
- If there is to be a first half leader, it should be Liverpool.
15:00 - West Brom v Chelsea - 1.61 Chelsea
- 2 consecutive Chelsea 1-0 wins in head to heads.
- Chelsea have a Champions League match on the 22nd November.
West Brom (16th)
- Only 2 wins came 1st 2 matches of the season.
- 3 match losing streak.
- Conceded in each of their last 6 matches.
- 1-1-0-2-2 scored in recent home matches. Scoring the 2 without winning.
- Only met one of the top 8 at home, a 2-3 loss to Man City.
Chelsea (4th)
- Only 3 defeats.
- 3 consecutive wins.
- 4 wins in 5 away.
- Failed to score only twice.
- No away draw.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- Wins v 12th, 14th and 17th away suggests West Brom should be within their compass.
- Scored first in 4/5 away.
- Win, Win, Loss, Win pre Champions League this season. Only loss was a London derby v Palace.
Conclusions
- Unlike Man Utd, Chelsea are more robust pre-Champions League and I think they can be trusted to come out unscathed today.
- West Brom did score 2 goals v Man City but have conceded 3 in that match. They scored 2 in their last 2 at home and still did not win. So if West Brom start scoring, they still may not win.
- Look for potential changes Chelsea (post International and pre-Champions League).
- Chelsea have failed to score only twice so expect them to score and they should win.
17:30 - Man Utd v Newcastle - 1.31 Man Utd
Man Utd (2nd)
- Pre Champions League so take note. United are very vulnerable pre- Champions League under Mourinho who showed this habit with Chelsea.
- 100% win record at home without conceding.
- All dropped points, 2 draws and 2 defeats have at their root a pre-or post-Champions League match.
- 2 0-0's at halftime at home but none fulltime.
- 8 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.
Newcastle (11th)
- Unsuccessfully attempting the keep-a-clean-sheet-and-nick-a-1-0 tactic. 1-0 win and 2 1-0 defeats last 3 matches.
- 3 1-0 defeats and a 1-0 win away within their 5 aways.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- 7 0-0's at halftime but no 0-0 this season.
- Not met top 6 away yet but lost 1-0 away to current 7th, 8th, and 10th.
- All 5 conceded goals away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Newcastle do not seem to have the talent to pull off the Fat Spanish Waiter's 1-0 tactic. They are losing 1-0 away, have lost 1-0 away to top 10 and are on a 2 match 1-0 losing streak.
- They meet a Manchester United whose catalogue of dropped points all falls in matches pre- or post- Champions League. No coincidence there as Mourinho did this at Chelsea if you look at their pre-Champions league form.
- Man Utd therefore are at their most vulnerable today but may get away with it. Note Newcastle are yet to meet the top 6 away and this could be the rude awakening. Mourinho would take a 1-0 win and indeed pre-Champions League he was pulled off a couple of 1-0 wins and a 0-0. It is post-Champions League where Man Utd are on a 2 match losing run.
- A lot of 0-0's at halftime for Newcastle but none full-time. That is a ready angle in.
ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP
Typically of this league a number of matches are too tough to call. I will focus on the odds on favourites initially.
15:00 - Norwich v Barnsley - 1.68 Norwich
- 2-0 Norwich in Feb this year.
Norwich (14th)
- 6 defeats, 3 came in the last 3 matches.
- No win in 5 at home sees 2 consecutive defeats. They are priced to end that sequence today.
- 0-0-1-1-0 scored in recent home matches.
- 5 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Barnsley (16th)
- Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 5/6 away.
- No 0-0.
- Not won at halftime away.
- 3 away losses came v top 4.
- All wins bar 1 came v 19th and lower.
- 9 of 11 goals conceded away came 1st half.
Conclusions
- I have seen stronger favourites. 0-0-1-1-0 scored at home and you want me to back Norwich at 1.68 odds? It looks like Alan Partridge and Delia Smith are the front 2.
- I would actually be laying any Norwich lead today. I acknowledge that the market has its reasons behind such short odds but Barnsley remember have only lost away to the top 4.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If Barnsley are to concede it is highly likely to be 1st half.
GERMAN BUNDESLIGA
14:30 - Bayern Munich v Augsburg - 1.17 Bayern
- 3+ goals scored by Bayern in the last 4 head to heads.
- Bayern play Anderlecht on 22nd November.
Bayern (1st)
- Loss, draw, win, win pre Champions League this season.
- Failed to score only once.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 home wins.
- 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
- Led 2-0 in 7 matches at halftime.
- Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 home matches.
- 5 consecutive 2-0 leads at halftime at home.
Augsburg (10th)
- Only 3 defeats.
- Unbeaten in 4 away.
- Failed to score only twice.
- Not played top 4 away.
- 2-2 v 5th and 1-2 v 7th is interesting away.
Conclusions
- Bayern tend to win pre-Champions League when the market expects. We should see 3+ goals from Bayern today.
- If you want to chance it, back 2-0 in the halftime market.
- If not, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Let's hope the Augsburg with positives v top 7 teams away turns up as we may get a good trading match. But with 3 clean sheets at home, 3 clean sheets in 4, Bayern will be a tough nut to crack.
14:30 - Hoffenheim v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.18 Hoffenheim
- Hoff have not conceded in the last 4 head to heads, winning 2.
Hoffenheim (5th)
- Only 2 defeats.
- Only 1 win in 5 matches.
- Only 1 home loss came last match.
- Scored in all matches.
- Scored and conceded in 6 of the last 8 matches.
- Unbeaten at home at halftime.
- 2 goals scored in 4 of 5 matches v top 10.
- Not conceded a first half goal at home.
Frankfurt (7th)
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
- Scored 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Only 0-0 at halftime came first match.
- 2-1 or 2-2 scorelines v top 6.
Conclusions
- This does look on form a 2-1/1-2 in waiting today. Frankfurt tend towards 2-1 or 2-2 v top 6 teams and with Hoffenheim scoring and conceding in 6 of their last 8 matches, and scoring 2 goals v top 10, it does seem we are headed that way.
- So I will back 2-1/1-2 pre match and hope both teams score. Indeed I hope for a 1-1 as the odds for 2-1/1-2 will shorten.
- Note the head to heads see Hoff keeping clean sheets. I oppose that on this season form.
- We should expect a goal before halftime on form this season.
14:30 - Leverkusen v RB Leipzig - 2.2 Leverkusen
- 2 consecutive Leipzig wins in head to heads.
- Champions League for Leipzig this week.
Leverkusen (9th)
- Scored and conceded in 9 matches this season.
- Scored in all matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Scored 2 goals at least in all home matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Only played one of the top 13 so little to go on at home v the best.
- No goal first 15 mins at home.
Leipzig (2nd)
- 5 wins in 6 matches.
- Tend to be unaffected pre Champions League with 3 wins and a loss v Bayern.
- All 3 defeats came away from home.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Only 1 draw was a 2-2.
Conclusions
- Leipzig are unaffected by upcoming Champions League matches.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but you might want to give it 15 minutes.
- Leverkusen keep scoring 2 goals at home but have only met one top 13 side so those efforts need a context.
- With each side keeping only 2 clean sheets we should see both teams score.
14:30 - Mainz v FC Koln - 2.02 Mainz
- 0-0 and 2-0 Koln in the last 2 head to heads.
- Koln play Arsenal in the Europa League next week.
Mainz (13th)
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
- Only 1 clean sheet this season.
- Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Only 3 wins all season all came at home.
- No 0-0.
- Not led at halftime at home.
- Not met bottom 3 yet but all 3 home wins came v 9th and lower.
Koln (18th)
- No win this season. That will end at some stage.
- Have at last scored away in each of their last 2 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
Conclusions
- We need to find that chink in opponents armour before considering a Koln win.
- With only 2 clean sheets Koln are highly likely to concede today. They have scored in each of their last 2 away matches so may score today, albeit not it seems in victory.
- That is backed up by Mainz scoring and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches and keeping only one clean sheet.
- I would favour Mainz were I to have to pick a team simply because the Mainz 3 home wins have all come v teams 9th and lower in the league.
14:30 - Wolfsburg v Freiburg - 1.68 Wolfsburg
- Freiburg won the last head to head but that is not the norm.
Wolfsburg
- An amazing 7 consecutive score draws and 8 in their last 9 matches.
- 5 consecuive home score draws, 4 of which were 1-1.
Freiburg
- Only 1 win.
- Only 1 goal scored away from home in 5 matches.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
Conclusions
- The form could be conspiring to end these score draws. If Freiburg can muster only one goal away they may have trouble scoring against a Wolf we know can score.
- The problem is that the Wolf keep conceding.
- I will lay any late score draw. It is more probable that we see an end to the score draw today given the away side.
17:30 - Hertha Berlin v Mgladbach - 2.1 Mgladbach
- The home team has won the last 3 head to heads (Mgladbach twice).
- Hertha have a Europa League match upcoming.
Hertha Berlin (11th)
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches and have only lost when they have not scored.
- Only clean sheet came first match of the season.
- 2-1-2-2-0-2 scored at home recently.
- Conceded 2 goals in 2 home matches v top 4.
- 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Mgladbach (8th)
- Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Failed to score only once.
- 2-2-1-2-3 goals scored away from home, very impressive.
- No away draw at halftime.
- Scored and conceded in 4 aways v top 10.
Conclusions
- I do fear that Hertha could concese 2 goals at least today, the way they have v top 4 at home and the way Mgldbach have been scoring away from home.
- I would have to lay Hertha if Hertha were to score today (although they tend to concede 2nd half).
- I would have to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Mgladbach may concede today but have the goal power not to lose.
ITALIAN SERIA A
17:00 - Roma v Lazio - 2.36 Roma
- While the country gets over the fact that they will not be in the World Cup, Seria A returns.
- Roma, Roma, Roma, Lazio in the last 4 Italian Seria A Matches. Remember this is a Rome derby.
Roma (5th)
- No draw. only 2 defeats.
- 4 Roma wins in 5 home matches.
- Last 3 Roma home results were 0-1, 1-0, 1-0.
- Failed to score only once.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
- No draw at halftime at home.
- Only 2 home losses were v top 3.
- 8 of 9 home goals were scored 1st half.
Lazio (4th)
- 9 wins in 10 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
- 100% away win record.
- Failed to score only 1st match of the season.
- Only 0-0 at halftime came first match of the season.
- Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away matches.
- Did beat Juventus 1-2 away.
Conclusions
- The odds are right here. This is tough to call as we see 2 in-form sides in this Roman derby.
- 100% wins away for Lazio includes v Juventus.
- On form lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Other than that this could go either way.
- Not Roma tend to avoid draws ....so far so lay any late draw if you think there is a possibility for this to continue.
- Both sides have European competition matches mid week so that does cloud matters.
19:45 - Napoli v AC Milan - 1.52 Napoli
- Napoli are unbeaten in the last 5 head to heads, winning 4 of them.
- Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads.
- Champions League for Napoli mid week and Europa League for Milan mid-week.
Napoli (1st)
- Unbeaten, all wins bar 2 0-0's.
- 3+ goals scored in all home matches bar that 0-0.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
AC Milan (7th)
- 5 consecutive defeats prior to Europa League matches. Coincidence?
- 2 consecutive away wins.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- All defeats came v top 6-pretty emphatic!
Conclusions
- Napoli do not seem to be affected pre-Champions League. AC Milan have lost all pre-Europa League matches and play top 6 again and they have a 100% losing strike rate so far.
- Form wise it does point to a shock if Milan win today and that is my angle in. I am with Napoli all the way.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- 0-0 seems to be worst case for Napoli.
SPANISH LA LIGA
12:00 - Getafe v Alaves - 1.88 Getafe
Getafe (12th)
- Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 home matches, 2-1 results (2 defeats and a win).
- No home draw.
- Not played any side 8th and lower at home.
- Scored 7 of their 8 home goals in the second half.
Alaves (18th)
- No draw saw all defeats bar 2 wins.
- 0-0-0-2-0 goals scored away.
- Failed to score in all bar 4 matches.
- Lost all matches v top 11.
Conclusions
- I would lay any late draw today and slant towards Getafe here. Getafe have a strong both teams to score pattern but Alaves have failed to score in 4 away. IF Alaves score and score first it is a clear lay opportunity.
- There is an element of the unknown as Getafe are yet to play teams 8th and lower at home.
- Getafe tend to score 2nd half at home so note that if 0-0 at halftime.
15:15 - Leganes v Barcelona - 1.35 Barcelona
- Both teams have scored in the 2 Barcelona head to head wins.
Leganes (9th)
- 3 consecutive defeats came away.
- Only 2 home wins were 1-0.
- Did manage 5 consecutive clean sheets until those 2 losses.
- 2 0-0's 2 1-0's at home.
- Not beaten a top 12 side.
Barcelona (1st)
- Unbeaten.
- Unaffected pre-Champions League.
- All wins bar 1.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Leganes only tend to win 1-0 or 2-0 and against 13th and lower.
- I cannot see a home win today. Barcelona have won all matches bar 1 and are unaffected by Champions League football so should continue the wins today.
- Beware Leganes at home. Keep it tight. Barcelona have scored 80% of their goals 2nd half so fear not a 0-0 at halftime.
- 2 goals minimum expected of Barcelona today.
17:30 - Sevilla v Celta Vigo - 1.76 Sevilla
- 3 consecutive Sevilla wins in head to heads.
- Sevilla have a Champions League match upcoming.
Sevilla (6th)
- All 4 defeats this season have come within the last 6 matches.
- They all came away from home.
- No 0-0.
- Only conceded a maximum of 1 goal at home.
- 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Celta Vigo (11th)
- Scored and conceded in 8 matches.
- Failed to score only once.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
- All wins v 15th and lower.
Conclusions
- Celta Vigo have a strong both teams to score pattern and I think they could score without winning. They are beating teams 15th and lower but top 6 should be too much.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Sevilla score strongly 2nd half so note that if they have not scored by halftime.
- This all assumes that the Champions league does not distract Sevilla.
19:45 - Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid - 2.38 Real Madrid
- This is going to be worth watching but as far as trading goes.....well we will see.
- This match really is about the best on the day. The head to heads tend to back that up.
- Both sides have upcoming Champions League fixtures.
Atl Madrid (4th)
- Draw, Win, Draw Draw pre Champions league.
- Unbeaten this season.
- Failed to score only twice.
- 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
- Draws so far this season v 1st and 2nd.
- Not conceded a goal first half at home.
Real Madrid (3rd)
- Draw, Win, Win, Loss before Champions League.
- 3 consecutive 2-1 away results, 2 wins and a loss to Girona.
- Failed to score only once.
- Scored and conceded in their last 4 aways.
- 8 of 11 away goals scored 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Like Roma v Lazio this is another of those 'best on the day' derbies, clouded again by pre-Champions League concerns.
- Neither side is in the winning groove pre Champions League.
- 1-1 or 2-1/1-2 look the likeliest scorelines today in a match best served by the in-play stats.
SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE
12:30 - Ross Co v Celtic - 1.22 Celtic
- Celtic tend to win but it was 2-2 last time Celtic visited Ross.
Ross County (8th)
- All defeats v top 4.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- 2 consecutive home wins.
- Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match at home.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
Celtic (1st)
- Unbeaten.
- Generally unaffected pre Champions League bar a couple of 1-0's.
- Conceded only 1 goal away from home. All other wins to nil.
- Scored in every match.
- All away wins.
Conclusions
- Celtic should win. Their Champions League is all but over. Celtic have scored in every match. That is a ready angle in case it is 0-0 for a while or Celtic are losing.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
15:00 - Aberdeen v Motherwell - 1.76 Aberdeen
- Aberdeen tend to win head to heads but the last 2 have been 1-0 wins only.
Aberdeen (2nd)
- Only loss v Celtic.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
- No 0-0 at home.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- Not played 2nd to 6th inclusive at home.
Motherwell (5th)
- Only 1 draw.
- Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 away matches.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime away.
- No 0-0.
- Away wins v 9th and lower.Not beaten a team above them in the league.
Conclusions
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- Motherwell tend to score and concede away but should not win if scoring today.
- Aberdeen have only been beaten by Celtic and should not lose to a Motherwell yet to beat a team above them in the league.
15:00 - Hibernian v St Johnstone - 1.59 Hibernian
Hibernian (3rd)
- 4 consecutive wins.
- Only 2 defeats.
- Failed to score only once.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- No 0-0.
St Johnstone (7th)
- 5 defeats in 6 matches.
- Failed to score in their last 6 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Failed to score last 3 away.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- Only 1 away win.
Conclusions
- St Johnstone have suddenly stopped scoring and that naturally takes us to Hibs who have failed to score only once. To compound St J's difficulties, Hibs have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on season but note only 1-0 last time these 2 met and a strong bias to Hibs scoring before halftime seeing as St J cannot hit a cow's arse with a banjo (as they say in footballing circles).
15:00 - Rangers v Hamilton - 1.36 Rangers
- 6-4-4 goals scored in the last 3 head to heads by Rangers.
Rangers (4th)
- 4 wins in 5 matches.
- Only losses v Hibs and Celtic.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- Only losses v top 3.
Hamilton (4th)
- Only 1 win in 10 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches.
- Failed to score only twice and only kept 2 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
- Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding.
- Only 1 win v top 8 home and away.
Conclusions
- Based on the season long form, Hamilton should not be winning. They should score, but likely concede more than they score.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- I expect Rangers to continue their recent win run.
- Do note Hamilton score and concede 80% of away goals 2nd half. Important to note if 0-0 at halftime.
DUTCH EREDIVISIE
17:30 - Feyenoord v VVV - 1.3 Feyenoord
Feyenoord (6th)
- Only 1 win in 7.
- Champions League on 21st November.
- Win, Loss, Draw, Draw pre Champions League so may be vulnerable today.
- No win in 3 at home.
VVV (12th)
- Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- Only 1 win in 9 matches.
- 1-1 away v 5th and 0-2 win away v 7th.
Conclusions
- I would say Feyenoord were vulnerable but then VVV have failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- I would not be backing Feyenoord with that recent record and with their poor pre-Champions League record. I would see value in laying a Feyenoord lead at very short odds just in case.
- Do remember despite poor form, VVV drew with 5th and beat 7th away.
17:30 - Twente v Heerenveen - 2.38 Twente
- Both teams scored in 4 head to heads until a 1-0 Twente win last match.
Twente (14th)
- No draw.
- All 3 wins came at home.
- 3 wins in their last 4 at home.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- Scored in all home matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Wins at home v 8th and 9th and 18th.
- 100% over 2.5 goals at home.
Heerenveen (10th)
- 4 losses came in their last 5 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Unbeaten v teams beneath them in the league.
- Scored and conceded in 5 aways and only 1 loss.
Conclusions
- Both sides are poor defensively.
- It does look like both teams will score and on form, Heerenveen are actually favoured because they are unbeaten v teams beneath them in the league.
- Their recent poor losing run is because they were playing teams better positioned than Twente.
- On that basis I would lay Twente if Twente scored first and they have scored in all home matches.
19:45 - Breda v Ajax - 1.3 Ajax
- No head to heads since 2015.
Breda (16th)
- Only 2 wins.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Lost to 1st and 3rd at home.
- 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Ajax (2nd)
- 3 defeats, 2 came at home.
- 4 wins in 5 matches.
- Scored in every match.
- 4-4-3 goals scored in their last 3 away matches.
- 4 0-0's at halftime away.
- 3+ goals scored in 3 matches v 13th and lower.
- 12 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Strong 2nd half goals trends with these 2 so note that.
- At their best Ajax could score 3+ goals again today which tells us to back Ajax if Breda scores first.
- Breda have already lost to 2 of the top 3 and play 2nd placed today.
- If 0-0 at halftime fear not. I would even back 0-3, 1-3, any other away score at halftime if 0-0.
19:45 - Willem II v Sparta Rotterdam - 2.04 Willem II
- 2-2 and 3-2 Willem II in the last 2 head to heads.
Willem II (17th)
- No draw.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
- Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
- Scored and conceded in all home matches.
- All defeats v top 11.
- No 0-0.
Sparta Rotterdam (13th)
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- No win away.
- Not led at halftime away.
- 2-1 or 2-2 v 15th and lower.
- No goal first half hour of away matches.
- 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Both teams could score today. Willem II especially are vulnerable.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Sparta tend to concede mostly 2nd half so take on any 0-0 at halftime.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
16:00 - Paris St-G v Nantes - 1.12 PSG
- PSG tend to win to nil in head to heads.
PSG
- All wins bar 2 away draws.
- Failed to score only once.
- 2+ goals scored in all home matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Scored first in 5/6 at home.
- Led at halftime in 5/6 at home.
Nantes
- 0-1-1-2-1-0 scored away. Inconsistent.
- Not played top 7 away.
- Wins have either been 2-1 or 1-0.
Conclusions
- If Nantes only win 1-0 or 2-1 then they will have to stop PSG scoring 2 goals as they do at home and in their last 5 matches.
- There is no strong scoring from Nantes which suggests PSG, even pre-Champions League, will be troubled.
- 1.12 suggests 3/4 goals minimum from PSG and a probable lead at halftime.
19:00 - Dijon v ESTAC Troyes - 1.93 Dijon
Dijon (16th)
- Only 3 wins but did win 2 of their last 3 matches.
- Only scored 2 goals once at home and that resulted in a win.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- No 0-0.
Troyes (11th)
- 2-1-1-2-0 conceded away.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Not led at halftime away.
- 3 of 4 wins came v 15th and lower.
- 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- French Ligue 1 can be a messy league which is why I leave it til the end to research.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Atrictly on form, Troyes should not be losing this match based on what they have achieved v 15th and lower. But the market disagrees.
- Dijon should certainly be conceding as they have only kept that one clean sheet.
19:00 - Guingamp v Angers - 2.32 Guingamp
- Guingamp and Angers have shared wins in the last 2 head to heads.
Guingamp (13th)
- 3 of 4 wins came at home.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Only 1 home loss was v PSG.
- All draws at halftime at home, 4 0-0's.
- v 10th and lower at home, unbeaten.
- No 0-0.
Angers (14th)
- Only 2 wins.
- All 3 losses came at home.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- 2-1-1-2-2-2 goals scored away.
- 2-2, 0-2 win, 2-2 last 3 aways.
- Unbeaten away.
Conclusions
- Both teams are in good form in their respective home and away matches, enough for me to take a back seat here.
- I can make an argument for either side so inplay stats will reveal all.
- What do I take out of research? Angers 2 goal pattern is eye-catching.
19:00 - Strasbourg v Rennes - 2.36 Strasbourg
Strasbourg (18th)
- 2 consecutive home score draws.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- 3-0-1-3-2 goals scored at home. Quite eyecatching for a newly promoted team.
- Conceded in their last 10 matches.
- Only 2 wins came v 15th and lower.
- No win v top 14 teams.
- 6 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Rennes (10th)
- 3 consecutive 1-0 wins.
- The only clean sheets.
- 1-2-3-2-0-1 goals conceded away.
- No 0-0.
- Unbeaten at halftime away.
- Not played bottom 7 away.
- 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- The market is right yet again. Strasbourg's scoring at home tells us that they cannot be discounted.
- Rennes are suddenly on a 1-0 winning run.
- I will leave this match alone.
- Strasbourg have conceded in their last 10 matches so expect them to concede at some point?
- Lay any late 0-0 based on Rennes.
19:00 - Toulouse v Metz - 1.75 Toulouse
- 1-2 Metz and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
Toulouse (12th)
- Only 1 loss at home.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
- Not lost at halftime at home.
- All defeats v top 9.
Metz (20th)
- All defeats bar a single win.
- Only clean sheet came in that win.
- 0-0-1-0-0-1-0 goals scored away.
- No draw.
Conclusions
- Rather like Benevento in Italy it seems a default to oppose Metz.
- Metz cannot score 2 goals away yet so lay them if they score first.
- Toulouse have only 1 loss at home so the market looks right here.
- But only a 1-0 win v bottom half at home suggests Toulouse may need a clean sheet to get the win.
- Lay any late draw.