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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, November 18, 2017

I hope you saw yesterday why I emphasize post-International and pre-Champions League. Dortmund lose their 4th consecutive pre-Champions League match. Monaco added to Amiens collection of 1-1 draws. I have emphasized the teams playing Champions League this week. Will they falter as Monaco and Dortmund did? Live chat at 14:30.
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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Arsenal v Tottenham - 2.52 Arsenal

  • I tend to leave high profile derby matches alone. There is always the chance of a red card to disadvantage any research.
  • Arsenal have not won any of the last 4 head to heads but score drew 3 of them.
  • Arsenal are yet to meet top 8 at home so their 100% record needs a context.
  • Tottenham have only met one of the top 6 away and lost 0-1.
  • As I say, watching brief but no angles for me. The in-play stats will reveal all.

15:00 - Bournemouth v Huddersfield - 1.96 Bournemouth

Bournemouth

  • Only 3 wins hence a bottom 4 place.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime this season and only 1 0-0 at fulltime.
  • 4 0-0;s at halftime at home.
  • Only 3 goals scored at home. 5 goals conceded 2nd half at home.

Huddersfield

  • Only 4 wins but won their last 2 home matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 away matches.
  • Only 1 away win v Palace was their first away match of the season.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would take note of any 0-0 at halftime and lay the 0-0 2nd half as these 2, if they concede, concede 2nd half at home (B'mouth) and away (Huddersfield) but their goalscoring is poor so I would try and delay to get a low odds 0-0 lay.
  • 2 teams in poor form. Huddersfield have failed to score in their last 3 away but Bournemouth have only 2 clean sheets and have scored only 3 home goals. Unappealing.

15:00 - Burnley v Swansea - 2.14 Burnley

  • 0-1 Swansea, 0-1 Swansea and 3-2 Swansea last 3 head to heads.

Burnley (7th)

  • Only 2 defeats v West Brom and Man City.
  • 0-1-0-1-1 scored at home saw only 2 wins.
  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 1-1 v 18th and 1-0 v 20th at home.

Swansea (19th)

  • 5 defeats in 6 matches.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • 2 0-0's, a 1-0 and a 2-1 away v teams above them.

Conclusions

  • Burnley do not inspire at all. Lacking up front, they have managed only one loss when only scoring a maximum of one goal.
  • Their form v bottom 3 at home is 1-1 and 1-0.
  • This could be a snooze fest. Back 0-0 pre match and hope that these poor goal scorers pick up a 0-0 at least until halftime?

15:00 - C Palace v Everton - 2.58 Palace

  • New manager syndrome for both of these teams means no head to heads worth checking out, and no in-depth research.
  • Palace are vastly improved against London opponents. Alas that does not include Everton!
  • Palace have conceded in all matches.
  • Everton's 3 wins have only come at home. New manager currently so tough to read them.
  • A brilliant 3-2 win last match under new manager at home saw Everton 0-2 down.
  • A match I am none too keen on until we see the managers' stamps on the clubs.

15:00 - Leicester v Man City - 1.36 Man City

  • Head to heads pretty irrelevant given managerial changes and Man City finding some money round the back of the settee.
  • Man City play Feyenoord in the Champions League this coming week.

Leicester (12th)

  • 2 goals scored at least in each of their last 3 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets. Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2-1-2-1-2 scored at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not met top 3 yet but rather ominously have lost all matches v top 6, conceding 2 goals at least in each.

Man City (1st)

  • All wins bar that draw with Everton.
  • Scored 3 goals at least in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • As you can probably deduce, Man City are not affected pre-Champions League.
  • The fact Leicester are losing to top 6 sides indicates an away win today. Leicester may yet score but they have to stop City scoring their traditional 3 goals.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on stats.
  • Leicester have upped their goalscoring of late to 2 goals. They may achieve that today but not win.

15:00 - Liverpool v Southampton - 1.46 Liverpool

  • 0-0, 1-0 Saints, 0-1 Saints, 0-0 in the last 4 head to heads.
  • Liverpool play Sevilla in the Champions League next week.

Liverpool (5th)

  • 3-3 v Watford; 1-0 v Palace; 5-0 loss to Man City; 2-3 win v Leicester; 0-0 v Man Utd; 3-0 win v Huddersfield are the pre Champions league results for Liverpool.
  • Not the best results in the world. Struggles v Palace, needed to outscore Leicester, failed to score v the Manchesters.
  • 2 losses came away v Man City and Tottenham.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Only lost to the top 3 this season.
  • Only 1 goal conceded at home.

Southampton (13th)

  • Only 3 wins, 2 were 1-0 only.
  • 0-1-1-1 scored away.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not played top 7 away yet.
  • All wins have come v the bottom 5.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool do lapse pre Champions League but the fact remains this season that they have conceded only 1 goal at home (yes I was shocked too!) and lost only away to the top 3.
  • Liverpool really should be eyeing this as a win despite tight head to heads.
  • Southampton are poor goalscorers, albeit scoring 0-1-1-1 away recently. 2 of their 3 season wins were 1-0 and I cannot see them keeping Liverpool quiet. 3-1-0-3-1-3 scored by Liverpool pre Champions League.
  • Southampton must be layed if scoring first.
  • If there is to be a first half leader, it should be Liverpool.

15:00 - West Brom v Chelsea - 1.61 Chelsea

  • 2 consecutive Chelsea 1-0 wins in head to heads.
  • Chelsea have a Champions League match on the 22nd November.

West Brom (16th)

  • Only 2 wins came 1st 2 matches of the season.
  • 3 match losing streak.
  • Conceded in each of their last 6 matches.
  • 1-1-0-2-2 scored in recent home matches. Scoring the 2 without winning.
  • Only met one of the top 8 at home, a 2-3 loss to Man City.

Chelsea (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 4 wins in 5 away.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No away draw.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Wins v 12th, 14th and 17th away suggests West Brom should be within their compass.
  • Scored first in 4/5 away.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win pre Champions League this season. Only loss was a London derby v Palace.

Conclusions

  • Unlike Man Utd, Chelsea are more robust pre-Champions League and I think they can be trusted to come out unscathed today.
  • West Brom did score 2 goals v Man City but have conceded 3 in that match. They scored 2 in their last 2 at home and still did not win. So if West Brom start scoring, they still may not win.
  • Look for potential changes Chelsea (post International and pre-Champions League).
  • Chelsea have failed to score only twice so expect them to score and they should win.

17:30 - Man Utd v Newcastle - 1.31 Man Utd

Man Utd (2nd)

  • Pre Champions League so take note. United are very vulnerable pre- Champions League under Mourinho who showed this habit with Chelsea.
  • 100% win record at home without conceding.
  • All dropped points, 2 draws and 2 defeats have at their root a pre-or post-Champions League match.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home but none fulltime.
  • 8 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Newcastle (11th)

  • Unsuccessfully attempting the keep-a-clean-sheet-and-nick-a-1-0 tactic. 1-0 win and 2 1-0 defeats last 3 matches.
  • 3 1-0 defeats and a 1-0 win away within their 5 aways.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime but no 0-0 this season.
  • Not met top 6 away yet but lost 1-0 away to current 7th, 8th, and 10th.
  • All 5 conceded goals away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Newcastle do not seem to have the talent to pull off the Fat Spanish Waiter's 1-0 tactic. They are losing 1-0 away, have lost 1-0 away to top 10 and are on a 2 match 1-0 losing streak.
  • They meet a Manchester United whose catalogue of dropped points all falls in matches pre- or post- Champions League. No coincidence there as Mourinho did this at Chelsea if you look at their pre-Champions league form.
  • Man Utd therefore are at their most vulnerable today but may get away with it. Note Newcastle are yet to meet the top 6 away and this could be the rude awakening. Mourinho would take a 1-0 win and indeed pre-Champions League he was pulled off a couple of 1-0 wins and a 0-0. It is post-Champions League where Man Utd are on a 2 match losing run.
  • A lot of 0-0's at halftime for Newcastle but none full-time. That is a ready angle in.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

Typically of this league a number of matches are too tough to call. I will focus on the odds on favourites initially.

15:00 - Norwich v Barnsley - 1.68 Norwich

  • 2-0 Norwich in Feb this year.

Norwich (14th)

  • 6 defeats, 3 came in the last 3 matches.
  • No win in 5 at home sees 2 consecutive defeats. They are priced to end that sequence today.
  • 0-0-1-1-0 scored in recent home matches.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Barnsley (16th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5/6 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not won at halftime away.
  • 3 away losses came v top 4.
  • All wins bar 1 came v 19th and lower.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I have seen stronger favourites. 0-0-1-1-0 scored at home and you want me to back Norwich at 1.68 odds? It looks like Alan Partridge and Delia Smith are the front 2.
  • I would actually be laying any Norwich lead today. I acknowledge that the market has its reasons behind such short odds but Barnsley remember have only lost away to the top 4.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. If Barnsley are to concede it is highly likely to be 1st half.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Bayern Munich v Augsburg - 1.17 Bayern

  • 3+ goals scored by Bayern in the last 4 head to heads.
  • Bayern play Anderlecht on 22nd November.

Bayern (1st)

  • Loss, draw, win, win pre Champions League this season.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 home wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Led 2-0 in 7 matches at halftime.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 home matches.
  • 5 consecutive 2-0 leads at halftime at home.

Augsburg (10th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Unbeaten in 4 away.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Not played top 4 away.
  • 2-2 v 5th and 1-2 v 7th is interesting away.

Conclusions

  • Bayern tend to win pre-Champions League when the market expects. We should see 3+ goals from Bayern today.
  • If you want to chance it, back 2-0 in the halftime market.
  • If not, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Let's hope the Augsburg with positives v top 7 teams away turns up as we may get a good trading match. But with 3 clean sheets at home, 3 clean sheets in 4, Bayern will be a tough nut to crack.

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.18 Hoffenheim

  • Hoff have not conceded in the last 4 head to heads, winning 2.

Hoffenheim (5th)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss came last match.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of the last 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home at halftime.
  • 2 goals scored in 4 of 5 matches v top 10.
  • Not conceded a first half goal at home.

Frankfurt (7th)

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 0-0 at halftime came first match.
  • 2-1 or 2-2 scorelines v top 6.

Conclusions

  • This does look on form a 2-1/1-2 in waiting today. Frankfurt tend towards 2-1 or 2-2 v top 6 teams and with Hoffenheim scoring and conceding in 6 of their last 8 matches, and scoring 2 goals v top 10, it does seem we are headed that way.
  • So I will back 2-1/1-2 pre match and hope both teams score. Indeed I hope for a 1-1 as the odds for 2-1/1-2 will shorten.
  • Note the head to heads see Hoff keeping clean sheets. I oppose that on this season form.
  • We should expect a goal before halftime on form this season.

14:30 - Leverkusen v RB Leipzig - 2.2 Leverkusen

  • 2 consecutive Leipzig wins in head to heads.
  • Champions League for Leipzig this week.

Leverkusen (9th)

  • Scored and conceded in 9 matches this season.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in all home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only played one of the top 13 so little to go on at home v the best.
  • No goal first 15 mins at home.

Leipzig (2nd)

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Tend to be unaffected pre Champions League with 3 wins and a loss v Bayern.
  • All 3 defeats came away from home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 draw was a 2-2.

Conclusions

  • Leipzig are unaffected by upcoming Champions League matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but you might want to give it 15 minutes.
  • Leverkusen keep scoring 2 goals at home but have only met one top 13 side so those efforts need a context.
  • With each side keeping only 2 clean sheets we should see both teams score.

14:30 - Mainz v FC Koln - 2.02 Mainz

  • 0-0 and 2-0 Koln in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Koln play Arsenal in the Europa League next week.

Mainz (13th)

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet this season.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 3 wins all season all came at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Not met bottom 3 yet but all 3 home wins came v 9th and lower.

Koln (18th)

  • No win this season. That will end at some stage.
  • Have at last scored away in each of their last 2 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • We need to find that chink in opponents armour before considering a Koln win.
  • With only 2 clean sheets Koln are highly likely to concede today. They have scored in each of their last 2 away matches so may score today, albeit not it seems in victory.
  • That is backed up by Mainz scoring and conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches and keeping only one clean sheet.
  • I would favour Mainz were I to have to pick a team simply because the Mainz 3 home wins have all come v teams 9th and lower in the league.

14:30 - Wolfsburg v Freiburg - 1.68 Wolfsburg

  • Freiburg won the last head to head but that is not the norm.

Wolfsburg

  • An amazing 7 consecutive score draws and 8 in their last 9 matches.
  • 5 consecuive home score draws, 4 of which were 1-1.

Freiburg

  • Only 1 win.
  • Only 1 goal scored away from home in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • The form could be conspiring to end these score draws. If Freiburg can muster only one goal away they may have trouble scoring against a Wolf we know can score.
  • The problem is that the Wolf keep conceding.
  • I will lay any late score draw. It is more probable that we see an end to the score draw today given the away side.

17:30 - Hertha Berlin v Mgladbach - 2.1 Mgladbach

  • The home team has won the last 3 head to heads (Mgladbach twice).
  • Hertha have a Europa League match upcoming.

Hertha Berlin (11th)

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches and have only lost when they have not scored.
  • Only clean sheet came first match of the season.
  • 2-1-2-2-0-2 scored at home recently.
  • Conceded 2 goals in 2 home matches v top 4.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mgladbach (8th)

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2-2-1-2-3 goals scored away from home, very impressive.
  • No away draw at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 aways v top 10.

Conclusions

  • I do fear that Hertha could concese 2 goals at least today, the way they have v top 4 at home and the way Mgldbach have been scoring away from home.
  • I would have to lay Hertha if Hertha were to score today (although they tend to concede 2nd half).
  • I would have to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Mgladbach may concede today but have the goal power not to lose.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:00 - Roma v Lazio - 2.36 Roma

  • While the country gets over the fact that they will not be in the World Cup, Seria A returns.
  • Roma, Roma, Roma, Lazio in the last 4 Italian Seria A Matches. Remember this is a Rome derby.

Roma (5th)

  • No draw. only 2 defeats.
  • 4 Roma wins in 5 home matches.
  • Last 3 Roma home results were 0-1, 1-0, 1-0.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No draw at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home losses were v top 3.
  • 8 of 9 home goals were scored 1st half.

Lazio (4th)

  • 9 wins in 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • 100% away win record.
  • Failed to score only 1st match of the season.
  • Only 0-0 at halftime came first match of the season.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away matches.
  • Did beat Juventus 1-2 away.

Conclusions

  • The odds are right here. This is tough to call as we see 2 in-form sides in this Roman derby.
  • 100% wins away for Lazio includes v Juventus.
  • On form lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Other than that this could go either way.
  • Not Roma tend to avoid draws ....so far so lay any late draw if you think there is a possibility for this to continue.
  • Both sides have European competition matches mid week so that does cloud matters.

19:45 - Napoli v AC Milan - 1.52 Napoli

  • Napoli are unbeaten in the last 5 head to heads, winning 4 of them.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Champions League for Napoli mid week and Europa League for Milan mid-week.

Napoli (1st)

  • Unbeaten, all wins bar 2 0-0's.
  • 3+ goals scored in all home matches bar that 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

AC Milan (7th)

  • 5 consecutive defeats prior to Europa League matches. Coincidence?
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats came v top 6-pretty emphatic!

Conclusions

  • Napoli do not seem to be affected pre-Champions League. AC Milan have lost all pre-Europa League matches and play top 6 again and they have a 100% losing strike rate so far.
  • Form wise it does point to a shock if Milan win today and that is my angle in. I am with Napoli all the way.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • 0-0 seems to be worst case for Napoli.

SPANISH LA LIGA

12:00 - Getafe v Alaves - 1.88 Getafe

Getafe (12th)

  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 home matches, 2-1 results (2 defeats and a win).
  • No home draw.
  • Not played any side 8th and lower at home.
  • Scored 7 of their 8 home goals in the second half.

Alaves (18th)

  • No draw saw all defeats bar 2 wins.
  • 0-0-0-2-0 goals scored away.
  • Failed to score in all bar 4 matches.
  • Lost all matches v top 11.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late draw today and slant towards Getafe here. Getafe have a strong both teams to score pattern but Alaves have failed to score in 4 away. IF Alaves score and score first it is a clear lay opportunity.
  • There is an element of the unknown as Getafe are yet to play teams 8th and lower at home.
  • Getafe tend to score 2nd half at home so note that if 0-0 at halftime.

15:15 - Leganes v Barcelona - 1.35 Barcelona

  • Both teams have scored in the 2 Barcelona head to head wins.

Leganes (9th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats came away.
  • Only 2 home wins were 1-0.
  • Did manage 5 consecutive clean sheets until those 2 losses.
  • 2 0-0's 2 1-0's at home.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side.

Barcelona (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Unaffected pre-Champions League.
  • All wins bar 1.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Leganes only tend to win 1-0 or 2-0 and against 13th and lower.
  • I cannot see a home win today. Barcelona have won all matches bar 1 and are unaffected by Champions League football so should continue the wins today.
  • Beware Leganes at home. Keep it tight. Barcelona have scored 80% of their goals 2nd half so fear not a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2 goals minimum expected of Barcelona today.

17:30 - Sevilla v Celta Vigo - 1.76 Sevilla

  • 3 consecutive Sevilla wins in head to heads.
  • Sevilla have a Champions League match upcoming.

Sevilla (6th)

  • All 4 defeats this season have come within the last 6 matches.
  • They all came away from home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only conceded a maximum of 1 goal at home.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo (11th)

  • Scored and conceded in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • All wins v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Celta Vigo have a strong both teams to score pattern and I think they could score without winning. They are beating teams 15th and lower but top 6 should be too much.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Sevilla score strongly 2nd half so note that if they have not scored by halftime.
  • This all assumes that the Champions league does not distract Sevilla.

19:45 - Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid - 2.38 Real Madrid

  • This is going to be worth watching but as far as trading goes.....well we will see.
  • This match really is about the best on the day. The head to heads tend to back that up.
  • Both sides have upcoming Champions League fixtures.

Atl Madrid (4th)

  • Draw, Win, Draw Draw pre Champions league.
  • Unbeaten this season.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Draws so far this season v 1st and 2nd.
  • Not conceded a goal first half at home.

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss before Champions League.
  • 3 consecutive 2-1 away results, 2 wins and a loss to Girona.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 aways.
  • 8 of 11 away goals scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Like Roma v Lazio this is another of those 'best on the day' derbies, clouded again by pre-Champions League concerns.
  • Neither side is in the winning groove pre Champions League.
  • 1-1 or 2-1/1-2 look the likeliest scorelines today in a match best served by the in-play stats.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

12:30 - Ross Co v Celtic - 1.22 Celtic

  • Celtic tend to win but it was 2-2 last time Celtic visited Ross.

Ross County (8th)

  • All defeats v top 4.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Celtic (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Generally unaffected pre Champions League bar a couple of 1-0's.
  • Conceded only 1 goal away from home. All other wins to nil.
  • Scored in every match.
  • All away wins.

Conclusions

  • Celtic should win. Their Champions League is all but over. Celtic have scored in every match. That is a ready angle in case it is 0-0 for a while or Celtic are losing.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

15:00 - Aberdeen v Motherwell - 1.76 Aberdeen

  • Aberdeen tend to win head to heads but the last 2 have been 1-0 wins only.

Aberdeen (2nd)

  • Only loss v Celtic.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Not played 2nd to 6th inclusive at home.

Motherwell (5th)

  • Only 1 draw.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Away wins v 9th and lower.Not beaten a team above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Motherwell tend to score and concede away but should not win if scoring today.
  • Aberdeen have only been beaten by Celtic and should not lose to a Motherwell yet to beat a team above them in the league.

15:00 - Hibernian v St Johnstone - 1.59 Hibernian

  • 1-1 earlier this season.

Hibernian (3rd)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.

St Johnstone (7th)

  • 5 defeats in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • St Johnstone have suddenly stopped scoring and that naturally takes us to Hibs who have failed to score only once. To compound St J's difficulties, Hibs have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on season but note only 1-0 last time these 2 met and a strong bias to Hibs scoring before halftime seeing as St J cannot hit a cow's arse with a banjo (as they say in footballing circles).

15:00 - Rangers v Hamilton - 1.36 Rangers

  • 6-4-4 goals scored in the last 3 head to heads by Rangers.

Rangers (4th)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only losses v Hibs and Celtic.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Only losses v top 3.

Hamilton (4th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice and only kept 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding.
  • Only 1 win v top 8 home and away.

Conclusions

  • Based on the season long form, Hamilton should not be winning. They should score, but likely concede more than they score.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I expect Rangers to continue their recent win run.
  • Do note Hamilton score and concede 80% of away goals 2nd half. Important to note if 0-0 at halftime.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Feyenoord v VVV - 1.3 Feyenoord

Feyenoord (6th)

  • Only 1 win in 7.
  • Champions League on 21st November.
  • Win, Loss, Draw, Draw pre Champions League so may be vulnerable today.
  • No win in 3 at home.

VVV (12th)

  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • 1-1 away v 5th and 0-2 win away v 7th.

Conclusions

  • I would say Feyenoord were vulnerable but then VVV have failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • I would not be backing Feyenoord with that recent record and with their poor pre-Champions League record. I would see value in laying a Feyenoord lead at very short odds just in case.
  • Do remember despite poor form, VVV drew with 5th and beat 7th away.

17:30 - Twente v Heerenveen - 2.38 Twente

  • Both teams scored in 4 head to heads until a 1-0 Twente win last match.

Twente (14th)

  • No draw.
  • All 3 wins came at home.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Wins at home v 8th and 9th and 18th.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.

Heerenveen (10th)

  • 4 losses came in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten v teams beneath them in the league.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 aways and only 1 loss.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are poor defensively.
  • It does look like both teams will score and on form, Heerenveen are actually favoured because they are unbeaten v teams beneath them in the league.
  • Their recent poor losing run is because they were playing teams better positioned than Twente.
  • On that basis I would lay Twente if Twente scored first and they have scored in all home matches.

19:45 - Breda v Ajax - 1.3 Ajax

  • No head to heads since 2015.

Breda (16th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Lost to 1st and 3rd at home.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Ajax (2nd)

  • 3 defeats, 2 came at home.
  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 4-4-3 goals scored in their last 3 away matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 3+ goals scored in 3 matches v 13th and lower.
  • 12 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strong 2nd half goals trends with these 2 so note that.
  • At their best Ajax could score 3+ goals again today which tells us to back Ajax if Breda scores first.
  • Breda have already lost to 2 of the top 3 and play 2nd placed today.
  • If 0-0 at halftime fear not. I would even back 0-3, 1-3, any other away score at halftime if 0-0.

19:45 - Willem II v Sparta Rotterdam - 2.04 Willem II

  • 2-2 and 3-2 Willem II in the last 2 head to heads.

Willem II (17th)

  • No draw.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches.
  • All defeats v top 11.
  • No 0-0.

Sparta Rotterdam (13th)

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 2-1 or 2-2 v 15th and lower.
  • No goal first half hour of away matches.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. Willem II especially are vulnerable.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Sparta tend to concede mostly 2nd half so take on any 0-0 at halftime.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

16:00 - Paris St-G v Nantes - 1.12 PSG

  • PSG tend to win to nil in head to heads.

PSG

  • All wins bar 2 away draws.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2+ goals scored in all home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 5/6 at home.

Nantes

  • 0-1-1-2-1-0 scored away. Inconsistent.
  • Not played top 7 away.
  • Wins have either been 2-1 or 1-0.

Conclusions

  • If Nantes only win 1-0 or 2-1 then they will have to stop PSG scoring 2 goals as they do at home and in their last 5 matches.
  • There is no strong scoring from Nantes which suggests PSG, even pre-Champions League, will be troubled.
  • 1.12 suggests 3/4 goals minimum from PSG and a probable lead at halftime.

19:00 - Dijon v ESTAC Troyes - 1.93 Dijon

Dijon (16th)

  • Only 3 wins but did win 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Only scored 2 goals once at home and that resulted in a win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0.

Troyes (11th)

  • 2-1-1-2-0 conceded away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 3 of 4 wins came v 15th and lower.
  • 5 of 6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • French Ligue 1 can be a messy league which is why I leave it til the end to research.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Atrictly on form, Troyes should not be losing this match based on what they have achieved v 15th and lower. But the market disagrees.
  • Dijon should certainly be conceding as they have only kept that one clean sheet.

19:00 - Guingamp v Angers - 2.32 Guingamp

  • Guingamp and Angers have shared wins in the last 2 head to heads.

Guingamp (13th)

  • 3 of 4 wins came at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss was v PSG.
  • All draws at halftime at home, 4 0-0's.
  • v 10th and lower at home, unbeaten.
  • No 0-0.

Angers (14th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • All 3 losses came at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2-1-1-2-2-2 goals scored away.
  • 2-2, 0-2 win, 2-2 last 3 aways.
  • Unbeaten away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams are in good form in their respective home and away matches, enough for me to take a back seat here.
  • I can make an argument for either side so inplay stats will reveal all.
  • What do I take out of research? Angers 2 goal pattern is eye-catching.

19:00 - Strasbourg v Rennes - 2.36 Strasbourg

Strasbourg (18th)

  • 2 consecutive home score draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3-0-1-3-2 goals scored at home. Quite eyecatching for a newly promoted team.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 2 wins came v 15th and lower.
  • No win v top 14 teams.
  • 6 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Rennes (10th)

  • 3 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • The only clean sheets.
  • 1-2-3-2-0-1 goals conceded away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Not played bottom 7 away.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market is right yet again. Strasbourg's scoring at home tells us that they cannot be discounted.
  • Rennes are suddenly on a 1-0 winning run.
  • I will leave this match alone.
  • Strasbourg have conceded in their last 10 matches so expect them to concede at some point?
  • Lay any late 0-0 based on Rennes.

19:00 - Toulouse v Metz - 1.75 Toulouse

  • 1-2 Metz and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Toulouse (12th)

  • Only 1 loss at home.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Not lost at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v top 9.

Metz (20th)

  • All defeats bar a single win.
  • Only clean sheet came in that win.
  • 0-0-1-0-0-1-0 goals scored away.
  • No draw.

Conclusions

  • Rather like Benevento in Italy it seems a default to oppose Metz.
  • Metz cannot score 2 goals away yet so lay them if they score first.
  • Toulouse have only 1 loss at home so the market looks right here.
  • But only a 1-0 win v bottom half at home suggests Toulouse may need a clean sheet to get the win.
  • Lay any late draw.