Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Post-International and pre-Champions league produced some very laboured performances, and it's no coincidence. Look at Man City. The need to rest game changers (De Bruyne for instance) impacted on the match early on. PSG 0-0 until the 90th minute. Juventus could not score. Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 only. Shakhtar 0-2 by halftime (great trade if you kept the faith in the 100% win record, fact they were at home, and 1.38 quote). Please refer to yesterday's Champions League contenders list therefore and brace yourself for potential struggles. The profits were made by staying with these contenders to extricate themselves and they all pretty much obliged, bar for Man City.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3621146290109805323 is the link to today's live chat webinar. 13:45 start to give the 13:30 kick-offs some breathing space. Then it's on into the 14:00 kick-offs and nice to see some Italian Seria A matches.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Bournemouth v Everton - 2.46 Everton

  • You know the drill with 2.46 the favourite. Unlikely we'll find any angles from the bare research as both sides are either as in as good form as each other, or in as poor form as each other.
  • 1st goal: Bournemouth have conceded first in 8/11 home matches against top-six teams while Everton have scored first in 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. Bournemouth have lost 11/14 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Bournemouth's limitations are already clear. 1-1 and 1-2 win v newly promoted, 1-3 and 3-1 losses to Man City and Leicester. So.....where does Everton fit into this picture?
  • 0-0 and 2-0 losses away for Everton, failing to score yet.
  • 1-0 and 3-2 wins at home. I said in the research and Everton have potential for goals if Iwobi, Richarlison and Kean are playing together. And so it proved with the 3 goals against a usually resilient Wolves.
  • Bournemouth I'd suggest will lose v the top 6 but Everton, I'd suggest, are not top 6 material. I personally think Everton might sneak it in what could be another both teams to score match for Bournemouth. If that Everton attack clicks.....watch out.

16:30 - Watford v Arsenal - 2.06 Arsenal

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Watford home matches against top-six teams and in 9/10 Arsenal away matches against bottom-six teams. Arsenal have won 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Watford, note, were not bottom-six last season. They were 11th. Footballformlabs does not distinguish this early season. So their angle might not be 100% reliable.
  • 7 defeats in their last 8 for Watford v top half teams. I tentatively put Watford in the top half and if we take that as read, 7 defeats, a draw and a win for Arsenal away to top half teams.
  • This is an Arsenal with a continuing reputation for poor away performances. They did beat Newcastle away and, as per the market, lost 3-1 to Liverpool.
  • 0-3 and 1-3 losses for Watford so far at home may see Arsenal with an easier task. Aubameyang must be playing for those fancying Arsenal. Winner, Winner, equaliser goal so far for Oooh Bam Eeeh Yang.He could be the difference today.
  • Speculators might look at that 3 goals concession for Watford so far at home.....

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

12:30 - Barnsley v Leeds - 1.53 Leeds

  • Only 1 win for Barnsley this season.
  • Only 1 win plays only 1 defeat. No wonder the market has lurched towards Leeds. Their only defeat came last match.
  • Barnsley have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • 3-2-3 goals scored by Leeds away from home is a solid foundation.
  • A Yorkshire derby of sorts may cloud the form but clearly, on form, the market is spot on.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11am - Eibar v Espanyol - 2 Eibar

  • 1st half outcome: Espanyol have won the first half in 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have scored first in 10/20 away matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 5/8 Eibar home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Both bottom 3 early on albeit only 3 matches so hardly rock-solid form.
  • Eibar are yet to play a home match. They have conceded 2 goals twice away.
  • Espanyol are yet to score!

13:00 - Alaves v Sevilla - 2 Sevilla

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Alaves home matches against top-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 6/10 such matches. Sevilla have conceded first in 11/12 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.
  • Both sides are unbeaten. 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 Alaves. Neither scoring 2 goals nor conceding 2 goals....yet.
  • 0-2, 0-1 away for Sevilla this season. Solid stuff.1-1 at home.
  • 2-0 win and 1-1 for Sevilla v Alaves last season.
  • Alaves at home last season had an air of solidity about them. They lost to the top 2 at home but only 2 defeats outside the top 2 were only 0-1.
  • Will they be this solid this season?

15:00 - Celta Vigo v Granada - 1.94 Celta Vigo

  • 1st goal: Celta Vigo have scored first in 6/8 home matches against promoted teams while middle-third promoted teams have conceded first in 53% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
  • Loss, Win, Draw for Celta this season. Loss v Real Madrid. 4-4, 0-1 defeat, 0-3 win for Granada.
  • What to make of the newly promoted Granada? You'd think really that Celta have too much nouse?

17:30 - Valladolid v Osasuna - 2.22 Valladolid

  • Osasuna are newly promoted.
  • Win, Draw, Loss for Valladolid to date. No clean sheet. No home match either for Valladolid this season.
  • Win, and 2 draws for Osasuna this season. Only 1 away match, a 0-1 win.
  • Not enough to work with here.

20:00 - Betis v Getafe - 2.24 Betis

  • 1st half outcome: Real Betis have drawn the first half in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams as have Getafe in 9/11 away matches against bottom-half teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 14/20 Getafe away matches.
  • 2 losses and a win for Betis this season.Both teams scored in all matches. All over 2.5 goals.
  • 1-0 loss v Atl Madrid, 1-1 v Atl Bilbao, 1-1 v Alaves for Getafe this season.
  • Contrasting form. 1-2 loss and 2-0 loss for Betis v Getafe this season.
  • No strong angles.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

14:00 - Nantes v Reims - 2.22 Nantes

  • 1st half outcome: Nantes have drawn the first half in 11/14 home matches against top-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 14/17 Reims away matches. Reims have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches.
  • 12th v 8th from last season.
  • 0-0 and 1-0 loss for Nantes v Reims last season.
  • Loss, Draw, Win, Win for Nantes this season. Improving each match.
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • 0-0 and 1-0 wins at home.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches for Reims this season.
  • It looks as if backing 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match might pay off today. 2 clean sheets for Nantes at home, 3 clean sheets in 4 for Reims.

16:00 - St Etienne v Toulouse - 1.65 St Etienne

  • Match outcome: Saint-Etienne have won 8/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Toulouse have conceded first in 8/10 away matches. Toulouse have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • St Etienne's 2 defeats came away last 2 matches. A single home match was a 1-1 v Brest.
  • St Etienne have no clean sheets.
  • Toulouse have only lost to PSG this season. Their 2 wins came at home. 1-1 v Brest is the same as Toulouse.
  • St Etienne are yet to shine this season. Can we really trust them ?
  • 4th v 16th from last season. At home last season, St Etienne only lost to the top 6. Is this the reason behind the short odds? 2-0 and 2-3 win v Toulouse last season too.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Genoa v Atalanta - 2.12 Atalanta

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 8/14 Atalanta away matches and +2.5 goals in 12/16 Atalanta away matches. Genoa have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • 3-3 v Roma and 2-1 win v Fiorentina for Genoa this season.
  • 2-3 win and 2-3 loss for Atalanta so far.
  • Both teams have scored and there's been no 0-0 at halftime albeit in a limited sample of matches.
  • 3-1 win and 2-1 loss for Genoa v Atalanta last season. 6 wins at home only for Genoa last season.

14:00 - Parma v Cagliari - 2.5 Parma

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 4/5 Parma home matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 9/13 home matches. Cagliari have lost 8/11 away matches.
  • 2 Cagliari losses so far. 0-1 loss v Juventus for Parma and 1-3 win v Udinese for Parma.
  • 2.5 the favourite suggests leaving this to the in-play stats or not at all.
  • 1-0 and 1-3 win for Parma v Cagliari last season.

14:00 - Brescia v Bologna - 2.52 Bologna

  • +2.5 goals: Middle-third promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 51% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Bologna have drawn the first half in 8/9 away matches against promoted teams.
  • Brescia are newly promoted.
  • 0-1 win v Cagliari and 1-0 loss v AC Milan for Brescia so far this season.
  • 1-1 v Verona and 1-0 win v SPAL for Bologna so far this season.
  • Limited patterns bar an under 2.5 goals pattern in contrast with what the Football Form Labs might say.
  • 2.52, remember, suggests leaving this alone so early.

14:00 - Spal v Lazio - 1.68 Lazio

  • 1st goal: SPAL 1907 have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while Lazio have won 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. Lazio have had W/W double results in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 2-5 Lazio win, 4-1 Lazio win and 1-0 SPAL win last 3 head to heads. The SPAL win came during their giant killing phase last season.
  • 2-3 loss and 1-0 loss for SPAL last season v Atalanta and Bologna.
  • 0-3 win for Lazio v Sampdoria and 1-1 draw v Roma.
  • Only 3 defeats for Lazio last season v teams 9th and lower. included a loss v SPAL.
  • SPAL at home last season beat 1st, 3rd, 6th and 8th - that giant killing I alluded to!
  • The market sees Lazio exacting revenge today.

17:00 - Roma v Sassuolo - 1.72 Roma

  • Match outcome: Roma have won 9/13 home matches while Sassuolo have lost 6/10 away matches. Sassuolo have conceded first in 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 3-1 Roma and 0-0 last season's head to heads.
  • 2 consecutive score draws for Roma v Genoa and Lazio.
  • 2-1 loss v Torino and 4-1 win v Sampdoria for Sassuolo this season.
  • Naturally favour the home side but still little to get stuck into. I would, though, lay any score draw.

19:45 - Verona v AC Milan - 1.66 AC Milan

  • -2.5 goals: Top-half promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 57% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. There have been -2.5 goals in 12/16 AC Milan away matches. Top-half promoted teams have drawn the first half in 57% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
  • Newly promoted Verona.
  • 1-1 and 0-1 win for Verona so far this season. The win came v newly promoted Lecce.
  • 1-0 loss and 1-0 win for AC Milan so far this season.
  • I would, and logic would, assume AC Milan expect to beat newly promoted sides.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Hoffenheim v Freiburg - 1.72 Hoffenheim

  • 3-1 and 2-4 Hoffenheim in head to heads.
  • An inconsistent start for the Hoff this season. 1-0 loss away at Frankfurt, 3-2 win v Werder Bremen, and 0-0  away v Leverkusen.
  • 2 wins and a 1-2 loss for Freiburg this season.
  • Freiburg scored 3 goals in those wins.
  • The Hoff have a solid record v Freiburg - is that enough to be with them, regardless of how many goals they may concede today?

17:00 - Paderborn v Schalke 04 - 2.18 Schalke

  • 1st goal: Bottom-six promoted teams have scored first in 51% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15 while Schalke 04 have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against promoted teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Schalke 04 away matches against promoted teams.
  • 2 losses and a draw for Paderborn so far this season. Both teams have scored and no 0-0 at halftime yet.
  • Schalke failed to score in their first 2 matches of the season then beat Hertha Berlin 3-0.
  • Watching brief with Paderborn but it is not looking rosey if twice they have conceded 3 goals this season.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - PEC Zwolle v RKC Waalwijk - 1.59 PEC Zwolle

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 10/14 Zwolle home matches. Bottom-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 61% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 66% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15.
  • RKC newly promoted hence I suppose the lurch towards PEC Zwolle.
  • PEC have conceded 2+ goals on 4 occasions with 3 losses and a draw. 1-3 win away last match.
  • They play an RKC with 4 defeats and a 3-3.
  • 3-2-3-3-3 goals conceded by RKC.
  • Bit of a stretch to trust this PEC side?

13:30 - Heracles v Willem II - 2.18 Heracles

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 12/20 H Almelo home matches and in 7/10 Willem II away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 14/20 H Almelo home matches.
  • 5-0 Willem II and 3-4 Willem II in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Only 1 win for Heracles cam last match.
  • 0-0-1 goals scored at home.
  • 3 wins first 4 matches for Willem II who lose v solid enough sides Vitesse and Feyenoord.
  • On that basis, I would be with Willem II here but the market sticks with Heracles.

13:30 - Feyenoord v ADO Den Haag - 1.27 Feyenoord

  • Match outcome: Feyenoord have won 15/20 home matches while Den Haag have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 trips to middle-third teams. Den Haag have lost 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • 2-2 and 0-2 ADO last 2 head to heads. Interesting!
  • 3 score draws and a 0-1 win for Feyenoord this season. Poor stuff but unbeaten. They were priced to win last match and did scrape by.
  • 3 losses for ADO Den Haag and then 2 wins to nil.
  • The market expects Feyenoord to continue to collect another 3 points. The head to heads though are interesting.

15:45 - Fortuna Sittard v FC Twente - 2.26 FC Twente

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/15 Sittard home matches. Top-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 55% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15. Top-six promoted teams have conceded first in 55% of away matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15.
  • No win yet for Fortuna Sittard. Both teams scored last 3 matches.
  • 2 losses and 2 draws.
  • 3 draws in their first 4 matches for Twente. They scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Twente look in reasonable order in their return to the top flight.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

12:00 - FC Orenburg v Rubin Kazan - 2.34 FC Orenburg

  • 1st half outcome: Gazovik have drawn the first half in 8/10 home matches against bottom-half teams as have Rubin Kazan in 7/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 12/18 Gazovik home matches.
  • only one win for Orenburg came last match at home.
  • Orenburg are yet to keep a clean sheet.
  • 2-2-1 goals conceded at home last 3 home matches.
  • Orenburg failed to score only once.
  • 4 defeats in 5 matches for Rubin Kazan.
  • Only 1 away win for Rubin.
  • Rubin's 3 wins were only 1-0.
  • Huge gap in form for Orenburg.
  • This could be as low scoring as footballformlabs suggests. I would back 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match and hope to cash out at halftime.

14:30 - FK Tambov v CSKA Moscow - 1.7 CSKA Moscow

  • -2.5 goals: Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 63% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014. There have been -2.5 goals in 10/12 CSKA M. away matches against promoted teams. CSKA M. have won 9/13 away matches against promoted teams.

16:00 - Dinamo Moscow v FC Ufa - 1.65 Dinamo Moscow

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/11 D. Moscow home matches and in 7/8 Ufa away matches against bottom-six teams. D. Moscow have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches.

Dinamo Moscow (11th)

  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home.
  • Only 1 over 2.5 goals match.
  • 3 losses at home have come v the current top 9.

FC Ufa (10th)

  • 2 wins in 3 came at home.
  • No away win. Failed to score last 2 away matches.
  • 3 wins came at home.

Conclusions

  • No strong patterns here. Dinamo Moscow's losses have come v the current top 10 at home.
  • The market expects the home side to go undefeated.

16:00 - Sochi v Lokomotiv - 1.92 Lokomotiv

  • 1st goal: Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 52% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014 while Lok. M. have won 7/8 away matches against promoted teams. Lok. M. have won by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against promoted teams.

17:00 - FK Krasnodar v Kryliya Sovetov - 1.43 FK Krasnador

  • Match outcome: Krasnodar have won 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while K. Sovetov have lost 8/10 away matches. Krasnodar have won by two or more goals in 5/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

FK Krasnador (1st)

  • Only 1 loss came 1st match of the season.
  • 2 wins and a draw at home.
  • Failed to score only in their first match of the season.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins have come v 8th and lower.

Kryliya (13th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Did win their last away match.
  • Failed to score only last match, a 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played the top 2 yet.

Conclusions

  • Krasnador look strong this season and this should be another win.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

18:00 - Portimonense v Porto - 1.46 Porto

  • Match outcome: FC Porto have won 14/16 away matches against middle-third teams and they have won by two or more goals in 5/9 such matches. Portimonense have lost 5/7 home matches against Big Three teams.

Portimonense

  • Only 1 win.
  • 2 consecutive defeats, one was a 1-3 v Sporting Lisbon.
  • 0-1 goals scored at home.
  • Not played the current top 5.

Porto

  • 4-1 and 0-3 in head to heads in Porto's favour.
  • A loss and 3 wins for Porto  3 consecutive clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • Only 4 matches but in seeing Portimonense lose so convincingly at home to Sporting Lisbon, and with Porto winning 3 consecutive matches to nil, and scoring 2+ goals, I am with the away side here today.

20:00 - Boavista v Sporting Lisbon - 1.74 Sporting Lisbon

  • Match outcome: Boavista have lost 9/11 home matches against Big Three teams and they have conceded first in 9/11 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Sporting CP away matches.
  • Boavista are unbeaten this season, scoring and conceding in their first 3 matches. They are yet to concede a 2nd goal.
  • But...they are yet to meet the big 3 (Porto, Sporting, Benfica....until tonight).
  • Both teams have scored in all Sporting matches. That may be the case tonight too.2-3-2 goals scored though by Sporting recently, albeit latterly in defeat.
  • Boavista are yet to concede 2 goals but yet to meet the big 3, one of whom is scoring 2+ goals. An interesting match where I would consider laying Boavista were they to open the scoring or lead late on.