Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Saturday's live chat was your 3 expressos-in-a-row live chat. Sunday's live chat was more of a cappuccino on a sidewalk watching the world go by. It was slow but still revealed some good angles. I hope you profited on Twitter. Once the Germans, Italians and Spanish are on board, live chats will have a webinar format, but until then, it'll be Twitter.
Today's coupon has an 'after the Lord Mayor's show' feel to it. We are reliant on last season for our pre-match angles. Of course you don't need reminding that in-play stats are crucial this early in the season for your decision making. If I am online I will tweet. Remember the 'if'.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:15 - Portimonense v Boavista - 2.18 Portimonense

  • 10th v 8th from last year. As I said over the weekend, Benfica, Braga, Porto and Sporting Lisbon are the 4 teams I prefer from this league.
  • Any patterns last year? Portimonense tended to lose v the top 7. Ouside the top 7 Portimonense lost only 1 match v bottom side at home.
  • 2-2-2-0-2-4-5-2-3 goals scored v 8th-17th at home.
  • Away from home, Boavista only won 2 matches v 17th and 18th.
  • On this basis, Portimonense should be confident of getting a result. If you have faith in them scoring 2 goals again, Boavista look a natural lay if scoring first.

TURKISH SUPER LEAGUE

19:45 - Kayserispor v Antalyaspor - 1.82 Kayserispor

  • My favoured teams in this league are Fenerbahce, Galatasary, Besiktas and Basaksehir. It's a quiet Monday so I'll take a look at these 2, particularly as the home side is a shade of odds-on.
  • 9th v 14th from last season. No wonder these 2 didn't catch my eye.
  • 8 losses and a 3-2 win closed out last season for Kayserispor. Hopefully their manager will have sorted out this sharp decline in form. 2-0 home win and 2-1 away loss  last season v Antalyaspor.
  • Outside of 12th, kayserispor were unbeaten, 5 wins and a 2-2 at home, scoring 2 or 3 goals on each occasion.
  • Antalyaspor's Achilles Heel was their away form last season. Only 3 wins, 2 of those v the bottom 2 sides. This suggests, if last season's form is upheld, that Antalyaspor won't be winning today.

DANISH SUPER LIGA

18:00 - Esbjerg v SonderjyskE - 2.48 Sonder

  • Were this a busy day, I would not be researching this match. 2.48 the favourite in a league only just a few games old.
  • Last 2 head to heads were friendlies, both teams scored and Sonder won.
  • Esbjerg are yet to get off the mark this season. They have scored and conceded in their 4 matches, alarmingly conceding 3 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime yet in an Esbjerg match.
  • Sonder have a loss, 2-2 draw, 2-0 win and 1-0 loss. 2-2 and 1-0 loss came away from home.
  • 2-3 and 3-3 at home for Esbjerg so they have goals in them.
  • No wonder the market has shrugged its shoulders with that 2.48 the favourite quote!!

SWEDISH ALLSVENKAN

18:00 - Norrkoping v Hammarby - 2.38 Norrkoping

  • 2-1 Hammarby last head to head.

Norrkoping (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • No win in 2 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • Not played the top 6 at home. but have won all other home matches bar 1.

Hammarby (2nd)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 2 defeats.
  • No defeat in 7 away.
  • Not played the top 4 away but 1-2 win v 5th. Losses this season came at home v 1st and 3rd.
  • Conceded in all bar 1 away match. Did score in all bar 1 away match.

Conclusions

  • Caution here. Both teams have 'gaps in the form'. Norrkoping have not met top 6 at home and play 2nd today. Hammarby have not played top 4 away, and meet 4th today.
  • Other angles? Lay any late draw while Norrkoping avoid draws? Note also Hammarby's conceding away.
  • Other than that, the gaps in the form puts me off.

18:00 - Trelleborgs v Sundsvall - 2.4 Sundsvall

  • 2.4 the favourite makes for an unappealing match on paper.
  • 1-0 Sundsvall in the only recent relevant head to head.

Trelleborgs (15th)

  • 5 losses and a 2-2 last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded last 8 matches.
  • All defeats bar 1 win v 6th at home v top 11.

Sundsvall (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 5.
  • All defeats this season v top 7 only. Nice cluster of wins, albeit mostly at home, v 11th to 15th.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/7 away which could be an angle in given they are unbeaten v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these sides. On season form, Sundsvall would be my favoured side here. An angle? Lay Trelleborgs if Trelleborgs score first. Why? Well if Sundsvall are conceding first in 6/7 away, and are unbeaten v 9th and lower away, and meet 15th today, then this suggests they have the capability of equalising. It ties in too with Trelleborgs scoring and conceding in 7 of their last 8 matches.

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

18:00 - Jonkopings Sodra v Varnamo - 1.88 Sodra

  • 0-1 Sodra last head to head.

Sodra (11th)

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches with only 1 win.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Have beaten the bottom 2 away but not played at home. Did lose to 4th bottom at home.
  • Only 1 home win.

Varnamo (16th)

  • Bottom side with only 2 wins. Unbeaten in 2 matches now.
  • 90th minute 0-1 win last away match.
  • That was the only away win. 1-4-0-4-0-4-2-2 goals conceded in recent away matches.
  • Failed to score a first half goal away.

Conclusions

  • Varnamo may have a chance here if they can gain momentum from an unbeaten run of 2 matches.
  • Sodra have beaten the top 2 away but have just one win at home.
  • This is not a match to dwell upon. This is no Real Madrid v Barcelona.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

An occasional foray into Mother Russia but once the major European Leagues are onboard I will rarely visit.

14:30 - FC Ufa v FK Krasnodar - 2.44 Krasnador

  • 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 Kras, 0-1 Ufa. The head to heads suggest backing 0-0 pre match and hoping for a long-drawn out 0-0.
  • 6th v 4th from last season suggests 2 capable teams.
  • Ufa at home conceded 2 goals + only 4 times so that defensive strength is there. 0-1 loss to Krasnador last season at home.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once at home v the top 8 last season.
  • Only 3 losses for Krasnador last season from 29th October 2017 onwards. One was v UFA.
  • All defeats for Krasnador came v the top 8 last season.
  • Win/Draw v Win/Loss so far this season.
  • Tough to call but a chance to back 0-0 pre match. If 0-0 at halftime I would tend to cash out.

17:00 - Rubin Kazan v Zenit St Petersburg - 2.26 Zenit

  • 10th v 5th from last year.
  • No win v top 6 at home last season for Rubin, who struggled to score that 2nd goal. This may leave them vulnerable today if scoring first.
  • Zenit away last season only lost v the top 3.
  • They had 4 0-0's v 8th to 11th away.
  • 2 clean sheet wins for Zenit so far this season. All 2nd half goals.
  • 2-1 and 1-1 Rubin so far.
  • Zenit, on last year's form, should not lose today. On this season's form, we may have to wait until the 2nd half for a Zenit goal so you may want to lay any 0-0 you see 2nd half.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

18:00 - Haugesund v Valerenga - 2.02 Haugesund

  • 3-0 Valerenga and 2-2 last 2 head to heads.

Haugesund (5th)

  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches. 2 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • Scored and conceded at least 2 goals in each of their last 2 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home losses v top 3.
  • 7 of 10 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Valerenga (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 7.
  • 3 defeats in 4 away.
  • Have not beaten a top 7 side away.

Conclusions

  • If Valerenga continue to fail to beat a top 7 side away, we'd have to be siding with Haugesund today not to lose, even if they concede.
  • Valerenga have had 33% 0-0's at halftime away but I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Haugesund.