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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 9, 2020

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and see you throughout the evening on Telegram. There looks to be a lot more competitive football in the Champions League tonight than last night.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:00 - Preston v Middlesbrough - 2.50 Middlesbrough

Preston - 15th

  • 2-3 win and 2-2 last 2 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • All defeats at home v the top 16, failing to score in 5 of those 6 defeats, 3 of them were 0-1.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Middlesbrough - 10th

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • Only played 1 of 15th and lower away, a 1-1 draw but at home are beating them all.

Conclusions

  • If the market can't split these 2, what chance do I have, apart from in-play stats? Preston's 100% defeat record v top 16 is compelling, and failing to score. It does suggest laying them if they lead 1-0 but covering the 1-0 scoreline given there is a gap in form for Boro v 15th and lower, and given they have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • You may want to chance a back of 0-0 pre match at its highest point and hope these 2 continue to stumble in front of goal.

19:45 - Barnsley v Wycombe - 1.70 Barnsley

Barnsley - 17th

  • 3 defeats in 4.
  • Failed to score last 2 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • All wins bar 1 are coming v 16th and lower. Clean sheets v teams below them in the league at home.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Wycombe - 22nd

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • Conceded last 8 away.
  • 2-2 away v 15th, 1-2 win away v 16th, and play 17th today.
  • 5/6 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Barnsley consistently tend to beat and beat without conceding, teams below them in the league. Intriguingly, Wycombe have a 2-2 away v 15th and 1-2 win away v 16th which conflicts with that Barnsley clean sheet home record.
  • The neutral player will lay any 2nd half 0-0.

19:45 - Brentford v Derby - 1.61 Brentford

Brentford - 6th

  • In horse racing parlance, reliable sorts.
  • Unbeaten in 9 matches.
  • 2 goals scored last 3 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw at home. Too many draws.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 home and away v 17th and lower, and note 3 wins away so....with home advantage....!
  • 7/9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Derby County - 23rd

  • Only 2 wins, were 0-1. Why? Derby have not scored a 2nd goal this season.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Have beaten 1st 0-1 away and drawn 1-1 with 2nd away!!

Conclusions

  • A clear strategy if Derby score first. They are likely to win 0-1 if they cannot score that 2nd goal so lay them but cover the 0-1. Brentford do exude an air of confidence about them and could score 2 goals which would put this match to bed.
  • Derby intriguingly unbeaten v the top 2 away!!

19:45 - Bristol City v Blackburn - 2.30 Blackburn

Bristol City - 8th

  • Only 2 defeats in 7 came within the last 3 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • 1-1-0-0-0 scored at home v top 16. BUT 5 wins and a draw away v 5th and lower.
  • 5/7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 4 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Blackburn - 9th

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches. 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Draw away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side.
  • 3-2-2-3 goals conceded away v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • Topsy turvy form for Bristol City. Cannot win at home but winning for fun away.
  • Do note the high % of 0-0 at halftime at home for Bristol City. Lay that 2nd half 0-0.
  • A muddling match. Blackburn are conceding 2+ goals v the top 7 but Bristol City at home have failed to score in 3 matches v the top 16.

19:45 - Norwich v Nottingham Forest - 1.75 Norwich

Norwich - 1st

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 were 1-0.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • 3/4 matches v 20th and lower saw 2-1 wins.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Nottm Forest - 21st

  • 4 losses and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in those 5.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats, failing to score.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 2-0 defeats away v 2nd and 3rd.
  • 6/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2-0 or 2-1 look the possible correct scores today if Norwich continue their form v the bottom 5.
  • Nottm Forest are struggling to even score.
  • High % 0-0 at halftime both sides suggests a back of 0-0 pre match and hope this match ignites 2nd half.

19:45 - Reading v Birmingham - 2.10 Reading

Reading - 3rd

  • Unbeaten in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • 6 wins and a 0-3 at home v 7th and lower.
  • 9/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Birmingham - 16th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 1 away loss.
  • 75% of halftime scorelines away are 0-0.
  • 1-0 loss v 1st, 0-0 v 4th away.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal away v the top 12.

Conclusions

  • Reading are excellent at home and that is where they target their points collection. Not good news for Birmingham who fail to score that 2nd goal away v the top 12. That may come back to haunt them today.
  • Yet another match where 0-0 at halftime is in play. If so, back 0-0 pre match and cash out as late as possible if lucky to get 0-0 into the 2nd half (75% chance for Birmingham).

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

17:55 - Ajax v Atalanta - 2.30 Ajax

  • The winner takes 2nd place here. A draw will do for Atalanta but Ajax must win. 2-2 the last time these 2 met saw Ajax leading 0-2.

17:55 - Midtjylland v Liverpool - 2.05 Liverpool

  • Likely a 2nd string Liverpool side outside for an obligatory end of Group match. They are through in Group D.
  • Midtjylland will finish bottom of the group.

20:00 - Bayern Munich v Lokomotiv Moscow - 1.33 Bayern Munich

  • An intriguing match in Group A. Bayern have qualified but Lokomotiv with a win could clinch 2nd place, with their rivals for that position playing each other.
  • 1-2 Bayern the last time these 2 met. The question is whether Bayern Munich will be fielding a second string side. Really they ought to.

20:00 - Inter Milan v Shakhtar Donetsk - 1.30 Inter Milan

  • Group B is wide open. This match is simply winner could qualify. Depending on other results, Shakhtar Donetsk could afford a draw but then will need other results to fall their way, so stick with the assumption that these 2 will be looking for 3 points.
  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met. Shakhtar must win this decider that they were playing Real Madrid who they have done the double over.
  • Inter have been far too generous defensively, conceding 2-0-3-2-2 goals.
  • My knee jerk reaction here is that Inter's odds are way too short.

20:00 - Man City v Marseille - 1.40 Man City

  • There is nothing really to play for, for these 2 sides. Man City have qualified. Marseille have only a top 3 place to look to, and Europa League football.

20:00 - Olympiacos v Porto - 1.80 Olympiakos

  • As above, Porto have already qualified. Olympiakos must battle for Europa League places if that is a goal of theirs.
  • 4 consecutive defeats for Olympiakos includes a 2-0 defeat to Porto.

20:00 - Real Madrid v M'gladbach - 1.70 Real Madrid

  • A draw will not do, not even for Mgladbach on 8 points in Group B, Shakhtar and Real Madrid on 7 points, and Inter on 5 points.
  • I thought Real Madrid's wins over Inter Milan impressed but it's their 2 defeats against Shakhtar Donetsk which see them still with work to do.
  • 2-2-6-4-2 goals scored by Mgladbach which is exactly what a faltering Real Madrid don't want to here. They are very unreliable, that loss against Alaves in La Liga compounded the loss to Shakhtar Dontesk next match.

20:00 - Salzburg v Atletico Madrid - 2.20 Atletico Madrid

  • Only Bayern Munich have qualified out of Group A. It is all to play for, for the other 3 sides.
  • I put this down as a must win match for both sides. Both sides are guaranteed 2nd place with a win.

GREEK SUPER LEAGUE

15:15 - Asteras v Volos - 1.73 Asteras

Asteras - 9th

  • No win in 5 matches. 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Loss at home.
  • 2 goals conceded in 3/4 recent matches.
  • All defeats have come v the top 4.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal at home.

Volos - 7th

  • No win in 5 matches saw 3 1-1 draws.
  • 4-3-4 goals conceded last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 matches.
  • Only away loss v 1st.
  • 2-3-2 goals scored away v 6th and lower.
  • 78% of goals scored and conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Ordinarily I would not look at teams like this. I cannot really split these 2. The home side tends only to lose to the top 4, and play 7th today. Volos tend to score 2+ goals away v 6th and lower, and meet 9th today.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.