Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. Research is getting trickier as these matches become more about context (must win!!!) rather than seasonal achievements.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Sheff Utd v Wolves - 2.22 Wolves

Sheff Utd - 9th

  • 2 losses since February came away.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Win last 4 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten the top 6 home or away. Have beaten 7th, 8th and 10th at home.

Wolverhampton - 6th

  • Only 1 loss in 9 came at home v Arsenal latest.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Win, Win away.
  • 7 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 3 away losses v 1st, 11th and 17th.
  • 17 of 23 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Sheff Utd are noticeably good at home recently. Wolves are as good away of late.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0. Strong 2nd half scoring for Wolves.
  • How important is Sheff Utd's inability to beat any top 6 side home or away so far this season?
  • This could be a match to back 0-0 pre match?

18:00 - West Ham v Burnley - 1.96 West Ham

West Ham - 16th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • 3-1, 0-2, 3-2 at home recently.
  • 3-2 and 2-2 last 2 matches.
  • 2-2-2-2 goals conceded last 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 13 matches and last 6 at home.
  • Only 3 wins v top 12 home and away, 2 came v Chelsea.
  • 3-0 loss v Burnley last time out.

Burnley - 10th

  • Only 1 loss in 11 came v Man City.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Loss, Win away recently.
  • Unbeaten away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Burnley are in decent form and that is not good news for the Hammers. But West Ham have scored 2+ goals last 2 matches and 3-0-3 goals last 3 at home so cannot be discounted in their need for points.
  • West Ham have conceded last 13 matches, remember that! Burnley are unbeaten away v 12th and lower.
  • At this stage of the season, we cannot discount teams who need points. Remember what West Ham did to Chelsea at home recently.

18:00 - Man City v Newcastle - 1.13 Man City

  • 5 matches remain this season and Newcastle are safe. They can pick the cast of Byker Grove, with Jimmy Nail up front.
  • Man City are still not assured a top 4 place so expect them to be going until it is a mathematical certainty.
  • Remember what follows with 1.13 shots. I will point these out in the review/preview video.

20:15 - Brighton v Liverpool - 1.6 Liverpool

  • Brighton are 9 points clear of the bottom 3. Another win could secure their Premier League future.
  • Dead rubber for Liverpool.
  • Liverpool have failed to score in their last 3 away matches, with a 3-0 loss, 0-0, and 4-0 loss.
  • A watching brief tonight as we have question marks over Liverpool's motivations.

SPANISH LA LIGA

19:30 - Betis v Osasuna - 2.06 Betis

  • A win tonight for Betis should secure their La Liga survival with 4 matches remaining.
  • A top 5 spot is possible for Osasuna but will require a lot of results to go their way. Osasuna are safe from relegation.
  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches for Betis came at home. Win, Draw, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • Only 5 clean sheets all season for Betis.
  • 0-0 v Osasuna last time these 2 met.
  • Betis at home have lost only one match v 6th and lower and play 11th today.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 for Osasuna.3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away wins for Osasuna.
  • Osasuna are unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
  • Osasuna have scored 15 of their 18 goals away in the 2nd half.
  • Angles? Both sides have the seasonal form to suggest they'll be competitive here. Betis only 1 loss at home v 6th and lower. Osasuna unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.
  • Given Betis don't tend to keep clean sheets, we might expect an Osasuna goal. Do expect a 2nd half goal from them if they haven't scored 2nd half.

19:30 - Getafe v Villarreal - 2.64 Getafe

  • I won't research this match given it's 2.64 the favourite.
  • 6th v 5th and Champions League / Europa League is on the table for both sides.
  • Villareal have been the better post-lockdown side, keeping 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.

21:00 - Barcelona v Espanyol - 1.14 Barcelona

  • This is a must win for Espanyol, although it looks as if they are relegated. If they do not win today, Espanyol cannot get out of the bottom 3.
  • A must win for Barcelona given there is a gap developing between them and Real Madrid.
  • 2-2-4 goals scored by Barcelona recently, fits in with a 1.14 odds quote today.
  • 6/6 defeats for Espanyol recently, 3 of their recent losses were 1-0, including v Real Madrid.
  • 2-2 last time these 2 met.

ITALIAN SERIA A

18:30 - Fiorentina v Cagliari - 1.81 Fiorentina

Fiorentina - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • 5-2 loss v Cagliari earlier this season.
  • Only 1 home loss v 12th and lower.
  • Scored 2+ goals only once at home v the top 12.

Cagliari - 11th

  • Only 2 wins in 16 matches came within the last 4 matches.
  • 1-0-1-1-1 goals scored recently away.
  • Losses away v 1st, 8th, 15th and 18th.

Conclusions

  • Fiorentina are too close to the bottom 3 points-wise to be comfortable yet.
  • They have trouble scoring a 2nd goal v the top 12 and that could suggest laying Fiorentina if they score first. Cagliari themselves have only scored 1-0-1-1-1 goals away recently though.

18:30 - Genoa v Napoli - 1.66 Napoli

Genoa - 18th

  • Only 1 win in 6 came v Milan pre-lockdown.
  • Post lockdown, 2 losses and 2 draws, conceding 4-2-3-2 goals.
  • No draw in 11 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
  • 100% defeats at home v the top 6, scoring in each match.
  • 0-0 last time these 2 met.
  • 17 of 25 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Napoli - 7th

  • 8 wins and 2 losses last 10 matches.
  • 3 wins and a loss v Atalanta post lockdown.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 away matches.
  • Unbeaten away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Genoa are conceding far too readily post-lockdown for Napoli to let them off. 8 wins in 10 recently for Napoli.
  • Genoa have scored v the top 6 at home but lost all matches, so remember that if they score first.

20:45

Atalanta v Sampdoria - 1.35 Atalanta

Atalanta - 4th

  • 8 consecutive wins, 4 at home.
  • No defeat in 10.
  • Scored in their last 18 matches and last 10 at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals last 5 home matches.
  • 2+ goals scored at home in all bar 1 match v 12th and lower.
  • 0-0 last head to head.

Sampdoria - 14th

  • 3 losses and 2 wins last 5 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Loss, Win away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • 9 losses and a 0-0 away v the top 13.
  • 13 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Seasonal form points to a home win, and a comfortable one with Atalanta likely to score 2+ goals.

Bologna v Sassuolo - 2.38 Bologna

  • Bologna have conceded in their last 25 and last 14 at home so do remember that.
  • 9th v 10th. 3-1 loss for Bol v Sas last head to head.
  • Only 2 home wins for Bologna v the top 15 is a concern. But only 1 away win v the top 12 for Sassuolo.
  • I will break here. Looking like a typical 2.38 the favourite match.

Torino v Brescia - 1.68 Torino

Torino - 16th

  • 8 matches remain this season and Torino are far too near to the bottom 3 for comfort.
  • 9 losses, a draw and a win last 11 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • Scored last 6 matches and last 4 at home.
  • 0-4 win v Brescia last head to head.
  • Have lost 1-2 at home v the bottom 4.

Brescia - 19th

  • Only 1 win in 15 came last match. All must-wins from now on will give Brescia a very slim hope.
  • 4 losses, a draw and a loss last 6 away matches.
  • Conceded last 7 away. No win in 7 away.
  • Only 3 losses home and away v 11th and lower. Not scored a 2nd goal away.

Conclusions

  • If Brescia cannot score that 2nd goal, then lay them if they score first. Torino have been in very poor form and are slipping too near the bottom 3.
  • Must win for both teams. Torino do not look reliable. Watching brief via the in-play stats.

Roma v Parma - 1.63 Roma

Roma - 6th

  • Inconsistent.
  • 3 losses, 3 wins, 3 losses last 9 matches.
  • Loss, win, win, loss at home recently. Loss v Udinese at home last match is a concern for Roma fans.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2-0 loss v Parma last head to head.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 at home v the top 14.

Parma - 12th

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Scored last 6 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only win home and away v the top 6 came....v Roma.
  • 2-0-2-2-2 goals scored away v 3rd - 9th.

Conclusions

  • In-play stats for me I'm afraid. I don't know which Roma will turn up. Parma could threaten 2 goals as well but are on a 3 match losing run.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.