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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 8, 2015

Monaco 0-0 yesterday - well fancy that! If you read the research you'd know that option was alive. I did lay the late 0-0 but the goal was not forthcoming. Remember, by delaying risk is decreased.

A 0-0 at halftime for Wolfsburg was not in keeping with their usual goal tendency so I hope you looked at laying the 0-0 2nd half. The goal came at around the 71st minute.

As predictable as ever, Atl Madrid scored 2 goals yet again at home in a match where there were no DRT's. I hope you layed the 0-0 halftime score.

Dortmund and Hoffenheim ended 2-2 and with Hoffenheim leading 1-2, I did lay them. My contention was that the market gets Dortmund correct when priced odds on. Dortmund did equalise for a successful trade.

Juventus did precisely what was needed to go through in this Coppa Italia match. 0-3. I did lay Juve at 0-2 up as I suggested but they were obviously "up for the cup" on this occasion.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

3:45pm - Terek Grozni v Zenit St Petersburg  - 1.85 away

Standout Stats

  • Terek have drawn and won the last 2 head to heads.
  • At home though, in the last 3 head to heads, Zenit have won, drawn and won.
  • This is 9th v 1st in the Russian Premier League

Terek

  • No win in 4 at home
  • 6 losses a draw and a win in their last 8 matches.
  • Terek home matches have been very tight recently, 1-0, 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 1-2,  and overall 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 2-1, 1-0, 0-1
  • Terek have not beaten any side above them at home 0-0-1-0-0 scored only.
  • Against teams above them home and away, Terek have only won 1 match and that was a 1-3 away to Zenit!
  • Only 2 0-0's at home
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home

Zenit

  • 2 match winning streak
  • Scored in their last 6 matches.
  • Lost only 2 matches all season.
  • 5 wins in their last 6 matches.
  • Like Terek, Zenit matches away have been tight, 0-1, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 0-1
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 away loss was a 1-0
  • No 0-0 away
  • Only conceded 1 goal 2nd half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Terek have won the last 2 head to heads, but when Zenit visit, Zenit don't lose.
  • Matches for both sides have been very tight indeed. I may back 0-0 pre-match here in the hope this is as tight as these matches have been this season for Terek at home and Zenit away.
  • Terek are in the poorest recent form and we would have to side with Zenit. It Terek win, it is likely to be a 1-0 scoreline. I would lay Terek if they scored first . Only if the odds were very short.
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4:30pm - Dinamo Kiev v Zorya  - 1.18 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-2 to Kiev in the cup in March 2015 augurs well for today. Do note the first Kiev goal was an own goal so perhaps this leg was tighter than expected.
  • The market though expects home advantage to suggest 3/4 goals, goals before halftime and everything else that follows with a sub 1.2 quote.

Dinamo Kiev

  • The only teams to have beaten Kiev since 2014 have been all non Ukrainian sides in European competitions.
  • Since 20th April 2014, Kiev have only lost 2 matches at home, again against European competition opponents.
  • 9 consecutive wins in the cup. since 2008 the only team able to beat Dinamo Kiev in the cup is Shakhtar Donetsk.
  • That's the same story at home in the cup. The only 2 losses were v Shakhtar Donetsk

Zorya

  • 3 defeats in their last 4 away matches.
  • Only wins in the cup have been against non-top flight league sides.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A remarkable record for Dinamo Kiev whose only kryptonite is Shakhtar Donetsk and Europa and Champions League opponents.
  • Zorya should not land a blow so let's hope they score first so we can back Dinamo Kiev.
  • The usual rules apply with sub 1.2 shots. Expect 3/4 goals. Expect a breakthrough goal at least before halftime.
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5pm - Apollon Smirnis v Olympiakos  - 1.15 away

Standout Stats

  • This is 3rd in the Football league v 1st in the Super League in this Greek Cup match.
  • In April 2014, Olympiakos won 1-0 care of an 88th minute goal.

Apollon

  • Only 2 losses in 19 for Apollon came in their last 2 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 19 at home in all competitions.
  • Unbeaten in 9 matches in the cup.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 9 cup matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 home cup matches.
  • Only loss recently in the cup was a 0-3 v PAOK. Perhaps telling?

Olympiakos

  • Only 3 losses in 26 matches.
  • 3 losses in their last 4 away matches.
  • Since 2010 only PAOK have beaten Oly in the cup, 2 1-0 losses.
  • 4 consecutive away wins to nil in the cup

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • If only PAOK are beating you in the cup since 2010, then Apollon , who have good recent form albeit in their league, should not land a blow.
  • Do note the last head to head . if 0-0 for a while ( Oly are away and might meet resistance), lay the 0-0 as late as you can.
  • 1.15 odds ordinarily suggest 3/4 goals and a possible goal before halftime.
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5pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Rijeka  - 1.64 home

Standout Stats

  • If this was a Croatian League match, I would bit your hand off for the 1.64 odds because Dinamo Zagreb have not lost at home in the league since August 2010.
  • This is, though , the Croatian Cup and in May 2014, Dinamo Zagreb actually lost 0-1 at home to Rijeka in this competition.
  • Rijeka have won 11 of their last 12 cup matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Usually with Dinamo Zagreb at home, we simply know they are unlikely to lose in the league. In the cup, they are a little more vulnerable and that confidence dwindles , especially with Rijeka's solid cup record. I would consider laying Dinamo Zagreb if they score first and if their odds are short enough when ahead.
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7pm - Barcelona v Almeria  - 1.05 home

Standout stats

  • 7 consecutive wins for Barcelona.
  • This is 1st v 18th. Almeria could go out of the relegation zone with a win.

Barcelona

  • 11 wins in their last 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 9 home matches.
  • 5 match winning streak
  • No draw in 14 at home
  • Scored and conceded in 2 home matches.
  • 5-0 v 16th, 6-0 v 19th, 5-0 v 20th fits in with this 1.05 quote .
  • No 0-0 at home
  • 34 of 48 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Almeria

  • No draw in 9 away. conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • Have not won home or away v 6th and above. 3 losses away v 3rd, 4th and 6th.
  • Only 1 away draw.
  • 17 goals conceded away in the first half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Likely this will be a 5-0, 6-0 like Barcelona have managed at home v bottom 5.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score. Likely we'll see goals before halftime at these odds.
  • Do note that Almeria need the win. Will this produce a shock?
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7:30pm - SCR Altach v Red Bull Salzburg  - 1.53 away

Standout Stats

  • This is an Austrian Cup match, and SCR Altach have won 3 of the last 4 head to heads.
  • I would lay Red Bull if they lead here given this recent record, the fact they are away from home and the fact this is an Austrian Cup match.
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7:45pm - Blackburn v Liverpool - 1.69 away

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 when these 2 met at Anfield in March .
  • This is an FA Cup replay.
  • I'm not going to research this fully.
  • Blackburn lose 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Blackburn have won only 1 of their last 5 home matches.
  • Blackburn at home did beat Swansea and Stoke 3-1 and 4-1.

Liverpool

  • Liverpool have lost their last 2 matches v Man Utd and Arsenal.
  • Since 2014, only Arsenal have beaten Liverpool in the FA Cup.
  • 3 consecutive 1-2 wins for Liverpool away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score perhaps today? Blackburn scored and conceded against 2 recent Premiership teams at home. Liverpool have scored and conceded in their last 3 away cup matches.
  • I would lay any team 2-0/0-2 up here and lay Blackburn if they led.
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7:45pm - Celtic v Partick  - 1.2 home

Standout Stats

  • 15 consecutive wins for Celtic in head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 9th. Aberdeen are keeping Celtic honest by keeping the gap to 7 points.

Celtic

  • 2 match winning streak
  • No draw in 11 and in 5 at home
  • 10 wins in their last 11 matches.
  • 10 clean sheets in their last 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 15 first half and 19 2nd half goals scored at home and only 2 conceded at home

Partick

  • No win in 2 away
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Celtic seem to have already won this match, judging by the head to heads.
  • Lay any late 0-0 .
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score .
  • Unlikely to be a DRT here.
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7:45pm - Hearts v Alloa  - 1.29 home

Standout Stats

  • 3 consecutive wins 0-1, 2-0 and 1-4 for Hearts in head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 9th in the English Championship.

Hearts

  • Only 2 defeats, one was last match v Rangers 2-1
  • 4 match home winning streak
  • No draw in 12 and in 5 at home
  • Scored in their last 26 matches.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets at home.
  • 9 wins and that loss to Rangers in their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.

Alloa

  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • No win in 6 matches and in 3 away
  • Conceded 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Complacency the issue with Hearts but it doesn't seem to have entered their minds yet as they continue to win when they really don't need to.
  • Hearts are expected to score as they have in 26 matches so I will use this stat today in-play. Alloa conceding 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches suggests they will be vulnerable today. Lay them if they score first.
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7:45pm - Napoli v Lazio  - 2.36 home

  • This is the Coppa Italia. Looking at the odds, this is not a match I want to involve myself with. Indeed this match is 1-1 from the first leg so that muddies the waters even more.
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7:45pm - Aberdeen v Inverness CT  - 1.84 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-0, 3-2 Aberdeen and 0-1 Aberdeen in head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 3rd in the SPL. 8 points separate these 2 sides though

Aberdeen

  • No defeat in 8 at home
  • Only 2 losses in their last 20 matches came against Celtic.
  • 2 consecutive draws means Celtic are sailing away at the top. A win therefore a necessity to keep a mathematical possibility of the league title
  • 6 wins and 2 draws in their last 8 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 18 of 30 goals scored at home 2nd half.

Inverness ( Caley)

  • 2 match losing streak away
  • No win in 5 overall
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches sees 4 score draws and 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • An inability to score more than 1 goal in their last 4 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • These 2 are tight in the league positions but there is a noticeable points gap and that should lead us to favour Aberdeen today over a Caley side finding it hard to score that 2nd decisive goal in a match. Caley are on a 2 match losing streak and play an Aberdeen side who have only been beaten by Celtic in their last 20 matches. That is compelling enough for me to lay Caley if they score first .
  • Lay any late 0-0 as Aberdeen need points.
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8pm - Paris St-G v St Etienne  - 1.49 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive 0-1 wins for PSG, one came in the Coupe de ligue. This is the Coupe de France today.
  • Both goals came 2nd half and were scored by Ibrahimovic. Perhaps you might want a win scorecast 1-0 Ibrahimovic?

PSG

  • Have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • Undefeated in 27 home matches in all competitions.
  • 4 consecutive wins in the coupe de france, winning  0-3, 2-1, 2-0, 2-0.
  • 5wins in their last 6 home matches in the coupe de france.

St Etienne

  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw in their last 4 matches
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches away.
  • 4 of their last 5 coupe de france matches have gone to extra time.
  • Similarly away from home in the coupe de france, 4 of the last 5 matches have gone to extra time.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • What stands out here? PSG are undefeated in 27 matches at home. This is a compelling stat. The head to heads are very tight. So do prepare for a concerted 0-0 and fear not if 0-0 at halftime.
  • As I said above, you might want to speculate on a 1-0 Ibrahimovic score cast. Very speculative as this is a sequence I cannot see continuing endlessly.
  • St Etienne should not win today but do have a tendency to take matches into extra time. If St Etienne lead late on, lay them and hope they fall foul of another coupe de france draw.
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8pm - Sp Lisbon v Nacional  - 1.35 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the Taca de liga and on 5th March 2015, the scoreline was 2-2, with Nacional leading 1-0 and 2-1 during this match. This suggests that Sporting Lisbon will be able to equalise if falling behind again today. That's my solitary angle into this cup match.
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9pm - Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid  - 1.25 away

Standout Stats

  • 13 consecutive wins for Real Madrid in head to heads.
  • 2-2-3-5-5 scored by Real in the last 5 head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 2nd in La Liga.

Rayo Vallecano

  • 4 match winning streak at home
  • No draw in 27 matches.
  • Have scored in their last 5 at home.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches. The loss was v Barcelona , 6-1!
  • No win v top 5 home and away.
  • Failed to score at home to 1st, 3rd, and 5th.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • Opponents have scored first in 10 of 14 home matches.

Real Madrid

  • No draw in 15 matches.
  • 2 match losing streak away
  • Recent 2 away losses v Ath Bilbao and Barcelona.
  • 3 losses in their last 4 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Lost away to 1st, 3rd, 4th, 8th and 9th away.
  • 80% over 2.5 goals away.
  • No 0-0
  • 40 goals scored away, pretty well split between halves.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Real Madrid are vulnerable away from home  - that's a poor record away v top 9 and they play 9th today. This is a must-win for Real Madrid and there is a hint that Rayo just find the top 4 too tough. Rayo have failed to score v top 5 at home and have not won v top 5 home and away.
  • Despite Real Madrid being poor away to the top 9, they have only failed to score in 2 matchs this season.
  • These 2 tend to avoid draws so lay any late draw.