A series of International Friendlies today. I am not sure research will be a very productive use of my time. With teams such as Italy and Spain, there will be absences (Champions League players for example, big team players on pre-season tours as well).
11:25 - Japan v Syria - 1.12 Japan
- This is the Kirin Cup.
- Japan have scored 8 goals to no reply in wins in 2015 and 2016.
- Only 1 loss for Japan in the Kirin Cup historically.
- This is Syria's first time in the Kirin Cup.
- Head to Heads suggest a comfortable win for Japan. Note there will likely be team changes (European club players may be absent).
- Look for 3-0 minimum here and react if 0-0 for a while.
12:35 - China v Philippines - 1.16 China
- No head to heads. This is being played in China.
- Kyrgyzstan and Maldives are the kind of teams the Philippines beat.
- Only 1 loss in 9 friendlies for China.
- Expect a Chinese win.
13:00 - Hong Kong v Jordan - 1.47 Jordan
- 4-0 Jordan in a March 2017 head to head.
- 0-1-0-0-0-1 goals conceded for Jordan in recent friendlies. Away from home though 1-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 1-0 Jordan in friendlies. Tight but poor. All of their best performances occur in Jordan.
- Hong Kong can beat the likes of Singapore and Cambodia but how to quantify those teams against Jordan?
- We only have the head to head as the strong angle here which suggests a Jordan win. Jordan are unlikely to concede 2 goals so lay Hong Kong if Hong Kong score first.
17:00 - Georgia v St Kitts & Nevis - 1.03 Georgia
- Likely to be an illiquid match. An obvious Georgian win expected. The circumstances behind this friendly is unknown.
- This is played in Tibilisi.
- 3-0 and 5-0 losses for St Kitts v the likes of Estonia and Armenia and that is the template for today's friendly.
17:00 - Finland v Liechtenstein - 1.11 Finland
- Head to heads from 2009.
- Finland are clearly limited but a look at the results achieved by Liechtenstein shows us that they can only beat San Marino 1-0 and draw 0-0 with Gibraltar.
- Finland have not played any of the minnows in friendlies recently (San Marino, Andorra, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Gibraltar, Kosovo) so there is no gauge as to how they perform.
- The market expects 3/4 goals from the Finns. I would not be a backer of Finland at 1.11. Would that make me a layer at 1.12?
19:45 - Italy v Uruguay - 2.22 Italy
- Italian players in the Champions League Final are likely to be absent in what could be a ram-shackle Italy side.
- I have mentioned it before. Italy tend to have a so-what? attitude to friendlies. The win is not a requirement.
- That said, they have beaten Scotland, Finland, Netherlands and San Marino recently.
- 4 clean sheets in 5 home friendlies (1-3 French win) for Italy is impressive.
- Only 5 wins in 17 home friendlies betrays their attitude!
- Only 2 defeats in 17 friendlies for Uruguay suggests they take friendlies a little more seriously.
- Lost away last 2 v Costa Rica and Ireland.
- Tough to evaluate. The value seeker could lay Italy if Italy score first at as short odds as possible. In-play stats are the key to trading profits.
- The professional trader though could simply concentrate on French Open Tennis as the best vehicle for trading profits at the moment!
20:30 - Spain v Colombia - 1.6 Spain
- Spain will be missing some key players, predominantly from the Champions League Final and from major teams on pre-season tours.
- Spain can throw in the odd wobbly in a friendly, as advertised by the 0-1 loss to Georgia in 2016 but recent friendlies have been good. 0-2 away win v Belgium, 2-2 v England and 0-2 win away at France.
- Only 3 defeats at home for Spain in friendlies since 2001 and they were all 0-1. Rare.
- Colombia's only friendly defeats since 2011 were against Brazil 1-0 defeats.
- This could be a good work out for Spain today. I would back 0-0 pre match. Why? Well if Colombia can keep Brazil to 1 goal, they may have some joy keeping a much-changed Spain from scoring, long enough to action a profitable back to lay trade.
- In-play stats again will reveal attitude.
The French Open was rain-affected yesterday so there is a backlogue into today. The Nadal and Djokovic research can be found in yesterdays DRT Bulletin.
Elina Svitolina v Simona Halep - 1.43 Halep
- 1-0 Head to heads for Elina.
- 13th v 5th.
- Svitolina won in the Roma Masters v Halep Final in 3 sets, losing the first set.
- 2 of Elinas last 3 French Open matches were 3 set affairs.
- All straight sets so far for Halep in this French Open.
- I must lay Svitolina if she wins the first set as I have more confidence in Halep than Elina given Galeps demolition of Navarro.
Caroline Garcia v Karolina Pliskova -1.62 Pliskova
- 24th v 3rd in the rankings.
- 2-2 head to heads. Garcia has won 2 of the last 3. Pliskova won in 2 sets in Doha. 3 of the sets were 3 setters.
- Pliskova has given a couple of lower ranked players a set this French Open. Royg won the first set last match and Pliskova went on to win with ease.
- Garcia has only dropped one set and is a French Contender.
- The head to heads largely point to a 3 setter although the most recent head to head was as 2-0 Pliskova on hard in Doha.
- I do think that Garcia is more layable as the first set winner.
Andy Murray v Kei Nishikori - 1.27 Murray
- 1st v 7th.
- 9-2 in the head to heads for Murray.6 Murray wins and a Nishikori 5 setter US Open quarter final 2016 in the last 6 head to heads.
- 5 of the last 5 matches have been 5 setters, another was a 3 setter (in a first to 2 sets) so I do not think this will be a 3-0 to Murray today.
- On that basis lay Murray if he leads 2-0.
- 4 sets - 3 sets - 5 sets - 4 sets for Nishikori this French Open. 4-4-3-3 for Murray this French Open.
- Murrays beating of both del Potro and Khachanov impressed - the latter took notable scalps prior to his meeting with Murray.
- This is a match where I would be keen to back Murray if his odds rise to evens as they did against Del Potro.
- Similarly if Nishikori is 1.3 or lower, I would be happy to lay him.
Stan Wawrinka v Marin Cilic - 1.44 Stan
- 3rd v 8th.
- Stan has won the last 7 head to heads. 4 tie breakers out of 7 sets in the last 3 matches between these 2.
- Stan won the last match between these 2 care of 2 tie breakers.
- Head to heads are emphatic. We may see a tie breaker or two and for me once 6-6 is reached it is luck of the draw as far as winning the set. It is the person who wins the key points who gets the set (and not necessarily the better player!).
- I have to oppose any Cilic lead based largely on head to heads.
- Stan has seen at least one tie breaker in all of this French Open matches this year and ominously he has won them all!!
- Lets hope Cilic wins the first set and we get some action.