Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.
Remember the strategies:
Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches
Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised
Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.
Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.
Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)
Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.
Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.
A very quiet day today. Do , therefore, remember to do the Bet365 offer for the Champions League match in order to make a guaranteed profit. Full details were explained to you in yesterday's post. It is guaranteed risk free cash so please go for it.
There are some Asian Champions League matches before midday but these really are a minefield to research. And between the 2 matches below, there are some appealing Portugeuse lower league matches which I'll monitor to see if the odds are accurate and if so, include research next time.
So, in conclusion, in such a quiet day, make sure you learn how to do "bonus bagging" and take advantage of the Champions League match later. I made a guaranteed risk free 30 quid yesterday from the Juventus match. I expect to do the same today.
2pm - Torino v Empoli - 1.89 home
- 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
- This is 9th v 15th in Seria A. Empoli are 11 points clear of relegation. Torino are within 4 points of top 5.
- Only 2 losses in 20 matches.
- 3 score draws in their last 4 matches
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 home matches.
- Lost 0-1 at home to teams either side of Empoli's position.
- Against 12th and under at home, 2 1-0 wins, 2 0-1 losses, a 0-0,and 1-1
- 25% over 2.5 goals at home
- 9 0-0's at halftime at home
- No win in 10 away matches
- Conceded in their last 8 matches
- Only 2 losses in 13 matches came away v Juve and Lazio ( 1st and 2nd)
- 2 2-2's and a 4-2 win in their last 3 matches.
- Only 1 away win v bottom but 10 draws.
- 31% over 2.5 goals
Profitable In-Play Opportunities
- Standout stats? 25% and 31% over 2.5 goals for these 2 does suggest a tight match. But then both teams have scored in Torino's last 5 matches and Empoli have 2 2-2's and a 4-2 in their last 3 matches.
- I will go with both teams scoring today I think although I am put off by the very poor over 2.5 goals stats.
- Both teams are in reasonable form here.
- Given Empoli collect draws away, lay them if they score first.
7:45pm - Barcelona v B Munich - 1.76 home
- Barcelona have all wins bar a loss v PSG this Champions League campaign.They have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches.Clean sheets in their last 2 at home V Man City and PSG.
- Bayern Munich have not won their last 3 away Champions League matches. Loss v Man City, draw with Shakhtar, and loss v Porto.
- Bayern rely on home form to extricate themselves from relatively poor away form.
Profitable In-Play Opportunities
- This is a one-off and anything can happen. But looking strictly at the form, Bayern are very vulnerable away from home and Barcelona keep scoring 2+ goals and have 2 consecutive home clean sheets against teams of the calibre of Man City and Paris St Germain.
- 2-0, 2-1 perhaps tonight? It depends if Bayern Munich's defence can click .
Because of the dearth of matches today, I'll include some TENNIS research which I hope you might find useful. DRT for tennis the same as football. We want the favourite to slip up by:
- Being broken 1st game. Back them for a comeback
- Lay the underdog if he/she wins the first set.
- Look for the favourite to be a set and a break down. Expect a comeback from the favourite. The research will follow once I have researched the matches.
This tennis is in its infancy and I don't profess to have as much knowledge as I do with the football. Also we have limited angles in in-play bar the obvious 3 I mention above. Your feedback would be appreciated.
10am - Caroline Garcia v Maria Sharapova
- 1.16 Sharapova. 3-0 head to heads for Shara. 3 v 28 in the rankings. 2 consecutive Shara straight sets wins on hard courts in 2013 and 2014 This should be emphatic for Sharapova . I would lay Garcia if Garcia wins the first set.
1130am - Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka - 1.22 Serena
- 14 -3 for He-man in head to heads. Tyson in a skirt v the Screamer.1st in the world v 31st win the World. As I said yesterday Azarenka has been slipping in the rankings. IT may be attitudinal with here. A lack of desire?
The last 3 head to heads were on hard courts and note Azarenka won in 2013, lost in 3 sets in 2013 too and lost in 2 sets in 2014. During these matches 4 of the sets were either 7-6 or 7-5. So the Hulk's odds today look a little skinny. I expect them to rise in-play.
I would lay Serena here if she wins the first set. Azarenka has been on the decline recently but might just click if motivated v the world number one. Remember Azar used to be there too!
12pm - Thomaz Bellucci v John Isner - 1.72 Isner
- 2-0 to Bellucci in head to heads came from 2010 and 2013. Isner has found some form since the Davis Cup in Glasgow and is not wholly reliant on that wonderful service game. I would see a tie-breaker here and lay Bellucci if he wins the first set. Isner has been in excellent form and should come back.
77th v 18th in the world.
12pm - David Ferrer v Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.14 Ferrer
- 8th v 65th in the world. 3-0 in head to heads for Ferrer . Note both these guys are spanish and this is a Madrid open . Last year in Spain, Ramos took Ferrer to 7-6 and 5-7 sets so could give him a battle today despite Ferrer being the better player. There is a noticeable gap between the top 10 and even 11th . 1.5 for 2-0 sets is rather tentative.
I would look to lay David Ferrer here at 1.14 as a trading angle based on the last time these 2 met in Spain, where we had a 7-6 and 7-5 set match. This suggests Ramos may VAMOS when in his home country and give Ferrer something to think about
1:45pm - Grigor Dimitrov v Fabio Fognini - 1.49 Grigor
- 11th v 31st in the world. 2-1 to Dimitrov in head to heads. Straight sets for Dimi in Monaco in 2015 on clay augurs well for him today. Dimi has got to the quarter finals and semi finals in his last 2 clay tournaments. Fognini reached the quarters in Barcelona, beating Nadal in the process but then lost 1-6, 3-6 in the quarter finals.In Munich he lost to 44th seed Thiem.
Fognini on his day can really play. Hard to read players such as him are a trader's nightmare. Note he beat Nadal on clay then capitulated in the very next match. Dimitrov has the recent form and should win. If Fognini takes the first set, lay him
2:15pm - Rafael Nadal v Steve Johnson - 1.03 Nadal
- Not much else to say other than expect a 2-0 sets win. Anything else and we can get stuck in. As ever with 1.03 shots it's better to lay them in one v one contests.Minimal downside -unlimited upside.
4pm - Roger Federer v Nick Kyrgios - 1.19 Fed
- no head to heads always sounds slight alarm bells. Fed may take time to suss out Kyrgios. Fed won his last tournament in Istanbul , and was beaten by Monfils on clay at Monte Carlo. No head to heads might suggest a lay of Federer at 1.19 based on the "unknown". He has lost the first set recently in matches then come firing back so let's home Nick can nick the first set, then back 2-1 or lay Kyrgios
Kyrgios reached the final at the Estoril Open on clay and lost to Gasquet in 2 straight sets.
5:15pm - Gael Monfils v Marcel Granollers - 1.2 Gael
- 15th v 62nd and a player, like Isner, worth following in their current form. 1-2 to Granollers - the last head to head was 2013.
Semi final in Monte Carlo and Semi's in the BRD , both clay events, tell us Monfils is back and knocking on a top 10 spot if staying motivated.
Granollers lasted til the 2nd round in Monte Carlo and 3rd round in Barcelona.
I do expect another easy 2 sets win for Monfils in this current form. If Granollers wins the first set, lay him.
7pm - David Goffin v Kei Nishikori - 1.18 Kei
- 21st v 5th in the World. Goffin is on the rise. Nishi is having his best season.
6-1, 6-2 in Miami on hard for Nishikori is emphatic. Nishikori won on clay in Barcelona so is on fire at the moment. Goffin reached the quarters on clay in Germany losing to Kohlschreiber.
This should be straightforward for Nishikori, but it is tempting to lay all players sub 1.2 in odds as the upside is far greater than the downside.
8:30pm - Philipp Kohlschreiber v Andy Murray - 1.37 Murray
- a repeat of a recent match in Germany where Ruby won.
3-1 to Murray in head to heads. 3rd v 24th.7-6, 5-7, 7-6 in Munich only a few days ago should tell us that Andy's odds at 1.37 are not at their lowest this match. I am sure they will rise. Kohl will have some belief, or was playing so well because he was in Germany.
In the last 3 meetings, Kohl has taken a set of Murray.
I think 1.37 is too short for Murray based on these 2's tussles in Germany. A match I traded, and Murray hit evens at one stage 3rd set during the tie-breaker. Tie-breakers might occur today and that 1.37 could rise allowing for a lay to back trade.