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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 6, 2021

ENGLISH FOOTBALL LEAGUE CUP

19:45 - Man Utd v Man City - 2.04 Man City

  • Man Utd are unbeaten in 3 head to heads without conceding. Intriguing.
  • I won't do any more research on this derby match.

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Cagliari v Benevento - 2.5 Cagliari

  • Always a question mark when newly promoted Benevento roll into town.
  • 2 2-0 wins in 3 matches for Benevento ended v AC Milan latest.
  • They play a Cagliari with no win in 8 and in 4 at home, albeit they have played Roma and Napoli latest.
  • Benevento have been defensively strong lately IF we take AC Milan away - 0-1-0-1-1-0-0 goals conceded.
  • 15th v 10th. All Benevento wins have come v 11th and lower.
  • Similarly, Cagliari are unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.
  • Angles? As befits a 2.5 the favourite match, tough to split these 2 because their form v teams around their opponents suggests both sides will be eyeing the win today!

14:00

Torino v Verona - 2.62 Torino

Atalanta v Parma - 1.28 Atalanta

Atalanta - 7th

  • 3 consecutive home wins scoring 3-4-5 goals is an excellent return to form post European Club competition.
  • Best judged on their last 5 matches, those 3 home wins and 2 away draws.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 63% goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Parma - 16th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 3 draws and 3 defeats last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches.
  • 7 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 2+ goals conceded in all bar 1 away matches.
  • 7/10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Atalanta should eye 2 goals today as Parma are rather generous defensively away from home.

Crotone v Roma - 1.44 Roma

Crotone - 20th

  • Only 2 wins all season, came in their last 2 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal at home v the top 9.

Roma - 4th

  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss away recently.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 10th and lower.
  • 10/13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Roma have an excellent 100% win rate v 10th and lower. No need to desert that pattern.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

Sampdoria v Inter - 1.59 Inter

Sampdoria - 11th

  • 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 losses recently.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% defeats home and away v the top 6.
  • 8/13 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Inter - 2nd

  • 8 consecutive wins.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 away.
  • Scored every match.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 matches and last 3 away.
  • Only loss came home v 1st.

Conclusions

  • Sampdoria's inconsistency is in marked contrast with Inter's consistency. I expect an away win. Inter remember have scored in every match so remember that if Samp score first.

Lazio v Fiorentina - 1.89 Lazio

Lazio - 9th

  • Only 2 wins in 7, sees no shoots of recovery as we have seen with the likes of Atalanta.
  • But a 2-0 home win latest v Napoli, and 2 goals in defeat v AC Milan latest might be a signal that there are goals.
  • Failed to score only first match.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches and last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Opponents have led in 5/7 home matches at halftime.
  • Lost at home to 14th.but beat 12th and play 13th.
  • 8/9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Fiorentina - 13th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 draws and a 0-3 win v Juventus latest. Note that was heavily influenced by a Juventus red card.
  • Failed to score in 4  away matches prior to that Juventus away win.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Bar that red card Juventus win, Fiorentina have lost to the rest of the top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • Ignore the 0-3 win v Juventus latest. It was 0-1 and Juventus, down to 10, were bossing until a 0-2 own goal where they simply downed tools. Pay more attention to the other defeats away v the top 7 for Fiorentina.
  • The problem I have with this match is knowing which Lazio side turns up today?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

Bologna v Udinese - 2.8 Udinese

Sassuolo v Genoa - 1.87 Sassuolo

Sassuolo - 6th

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Win, Loss at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 3-4-4 goals scored v 17th and lower.
  • 8/10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Genoa - 19th

  • Only 2 wins came v newly promoted sides.
  • 1-2 win, 1-1 draw latest. draw v Lazio.
  • Conceded last 12 and last 5 away.
  • Only wins v 18th and lower.

Conclusions

  • What to make of the 1-1 for Genoa v Lazio? If Sassuolo revert to 3+ goals as they do v 17th and lower, that will seal the deal but outside of the bottom sides, Sassuolo have been stumbling to a single goal a match. Genoa score draw would be best case. Were Lazio having an off day in the 1-1 or is this a sign of increased Genoa defensive strength? Unbeaten in 2?
  • Note Sassuolo tend to score 2nd half.

17:00 - Napoli v Spezia - 1.22 Napoli

Napoli - 5th

  • Only 1 win in 4 came last match v Cagliari.
  • 10 goals to no reply in 2 matches v the bottom 2.
  • 12/18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Spezia - 18th

  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Loss away.
  • Scored last 5 away matches.
  • Conceded last 7 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side yet.
  • 11/13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Napoli can ignite that goalscoring v bottom 2 when playing 3rd bottom, this will be a 3/4 goals win for Napoli.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding trends for Napoli. So we may not see a first half goal but really a 1.22 shot should be scoring before halftime.

19:45 - AC Milan v Juventus - 2.42 Juventus

  • Mouth watering affair but absolutely no pre-match angles for me. Anything could happen in this big clashes.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:00 - Brest v Nice - 2.25 Brest

Brest - 11th

  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches.
  • 2 2-2's and a 2-1 loss recently.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 home losses v 5th and 17th.
  • 12/17 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Nice - 12th

  • Only 1 win in 7 came away recently.
  • No defeat in 5 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Brest is Best so says the market but Nice is nice so says the Challenge table, unbeaten away v 9th and lower and meeting 11th today.
  • What to make of Brest's recent 2 goals a game last 4 home matches?
  • It is hard to pick a weaker side on that basis!

18:00 - Lorient v Monaco - 1.80 Monaco

Lorient - 18th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 2+ goals conceded in 4/5 matches.
  • 4 losses and a win last 5 at home.
  • Failed to score in 8/10 matches but managed a 2-2 last match.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 100% defeats v top 11.
  • 67% of goals 2nd half at home.

Monaco - 6th

  • 3 defeats, win and draw for Monaco recently.
  • 2 losses and a win away recently.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored last 5 away. No draw 8 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The Challenge Table suggests struggles for Lorient but 2 of their recent defeats v top 10 sides were only 0-1. They may be a thorn in Monaco's side.
  • Monaco have failed to score only twice and are unbeaten v 12th and lower, albeit mostly at tome. Lorient may struggle today really against a top 6 side despite their solid 2-2 away at Nice, another Cote D'Azur side.

18:00 - Metz v Bordeaux - 2.62 Metz

18:00 - Nantes v Rennes - 2.05 Rennes

Nantes - 16th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • No win in 8 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw, Draw at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 5 losses v top 6.
  • 5 goals scored 15th-30th minute at home.
  • 9/14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Rennes - 4th

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 away.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 wins plays 4 consecutive wins. The recent form is with Rennes today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

18:00 - Strasbourg v Nimes - 1.55 Strasbourg

Strasbourg - 17th

  • 3/4 wins came away from home.
  • 2 consecutive defeats without scoring.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • Beat 19th 1-0 at home.
  • 4/6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Nimes - 20th

  • Only 3 wins, 2 were 1-0.
  • Failed to score in 7/11 matches.
  • 3-2-3-2-2-3 goals conceded latest.
  • 4/5 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2 sides at the wrong end of the table. The market thinks Strasbourg is better than Nimes. Both sides tend to 1-0 wins suggesting, more confidently with Nimes, to lay them if they score first and cover the 0-1. Nimes are eminently generous defensively lately and that will be their undoing.

20:00 - Lille v Angers - 1.60 Lille

Lille - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Failed to score only v PSG.
  • No defeat in 7 and in 9 at home.
  • Scored first in 8/9 at home.
  • 100% wins v 6th and lower at home.

Angers - 9th

  • 3 wins and 2 draws last 5 away.
  • No defeat in 5 away.
  • 2/2 losses v the top 3. Beat 4th and 7th away.

Conclusions

  • Lille have failed to score only once so expect a goal at least. They are unbeaten at home and tend to score first which may negate a trade.
  • Angers are in a good place, 3 wins and 2 draws away but are yet to beat the top 3. They did beat 4th away. Significant? Or are the top 3 a step too far?

20:00 - Lyon v Lens - 1.44 Lyon

Lyon - 1st

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 9 wins last 11 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home, scoring 2+ goals last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 8 goals scored 31st-45th minute at home.

Lens - 7th

  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win recently.
  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Lost away to 2nd, beat 4th and 6th.
  • 5 goals scored 31st-45th minute away.

Conclusions

  • Lens may score and that will require 2 goals from Lyon to win. They do over 2.5 goals matches and score 2 goals last 5 home matches so that is a possibility.
  • If you want to, wait for 30th minute if 0-0, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

20:00 - Marseille v Montpellier - 2.10 Marseille

Marseille

  • 2 losses and a draw recently. The losses came away.
  • Unbeaten in 6 at home.

20:00 - Reims v Dijon - 1.83 Reims

Reims - 15th

  • Win, draw , win last 3 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Draw, Win at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Lost at home v 18th and 20th. Beat 16th and 17th at home.

Dijon - 19th

  • Only 2 wins came away within the last 4 away matches and were 1-3!
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Win away recently.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 8 away.

Conclusions

  • Dijon have suddenly hit some away form, scoring and conceding in their last 4 away matches.
  • Both sides have had only 2 clean sheets. Reims form v 16th and lower is muddling. Wins v 16th and 17th, losses v 18th and 20th...and play 19th today.
  • I don't have any ultra strong angles here but we are unlikely to see a 0-0 at fulltime.

20:00 - St. Etienne v PSG - 1.36 PSG

St Etienne - 14th

  • 5 draws and a win last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home draws.
  • 2 consecutive 2-2's. Scored 2 goals in last 3 matches.
  • Not beaten the top 4 yet, and failed to score that 2nd goal at home v the top 12.

Paris St Germain - 3rd

  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Loss, Win, 0-0 recently away.
  • 100% wins away v 8th and lower. No goal conceded away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • PSG at their best can win this to nil. Their defence may be tested if St Etienne bring confidence from their 3 consecutive matches scoring 2 goals. They do, though, tend to flatten out at a single goal at home v the top 12 so may not be able to retain this 2 goal habit today. Draw best case for St Etienne today.

GREEK SUPER LEAGUE

15:15 - AEK Athens v Panetolikos - 1.17 AEK Athens

AEK Athens - 4th

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • 2 draws and a loss latest.
  • 2 consecutive home draws.
  • 0-2 win opening match of the season v today's opponents.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • All wins have come v 7th and lower.
  • 10/14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Panetolikos - 12th

  • 2 wins this season came at home and recently.
  • 0-0-0-1-0 goals scored away recently.
  • 3 0-0's during that run.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • All defeats v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • If AEK scored the 3/4 that they do v the bottom 2, then 1.17 will be justified. 0-0 looks in play with Panetolikos but they do tend to lose to the top 6.

17:30 - Asteras v Olympiacos - 1.44 Olympiakos

Asteras - 7th

  • Draw, Win, Draw, Draw last 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 3 at home.
  • Lost to top 3 away without scoring. Yet to play them at home.
  • Scored 2 goals only once at home.

Olympiakos - 1st

  • Unbeaten.
  • 2 1-1 draws did come away.
  • Scored every match.
  • 3-0 win v Asteras earlier this season.
  • 67% of goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Worst case for Oly today would seem to be 1-1. Asteras cannot seem to score that 2nd goal so 1-0, 1-1 best case for them. I expect an Oly win. Note they score more 2nd half.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

13:00 - Genclerbirligi v Hatayspor - 2.20 Hatayspor

Genclerbirligi - 17th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • 3/4 wins all season came in those 6 matches.
  • Win, Draw, Win at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • Draw, Win, Loss, Draw at home v the top 8.
  • 6/9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Hatayspor - 6th

  • 5 wins and 2 losses last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away and only one at fulltime.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 5/8 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I would favour Hatayspor here on their solid record  v 8th and lower, only the one loss. Genclerbirligi are in good home form and their wins this season are coming in the last 6 matches. Only 1 win v the top 8 though for Genclerbirligi.
  • Not 2 of the shining lights in this league.

16:00 - Antalyaspor v Karagumruk - 2.50 Antalyaspor

16:00 - Besiktas v Rizespor - 1.44 Besiktas

Besiktas - 2nd

  • 9 wins in 11 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 home matches.
  • Only played one of the top 12 at home, a 1-0 win.
  • 10/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Rizespor - 11th

  • A win and 2 draws latest.
  • Scored and conceded last 6.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • Big gap in form for Besiktas v the top 12 at home so nothing really to gauge them by, when playing 11th unless we note that Rizespor have not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • They are scoring and conceding and may score today but with a score draw best case.