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A quiet day today. Tennis still interests but a warning that we are now seeing more seeded v seeded players i.e. tighter matches can be assumed.

UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

19:45 - Portugal v Switzerland - 1.69 Portugal

  • 7th v 8th in the rankings.
  • This is a semi-final match.
  • Last head to head was 2017, a 2-0 Portugal win.
  • The last 3 head to heads were all 2-0, 2 Swiss wins and 1 Portugal win.
  • 4 consecutive draws for Portugal in all competitions, either 1-1 or 0-0.
  • 1-3-0-1 goals scored by Portugal this competition.
  • 1-0 and 1-1 at home.
  • 5-2-3 goals scored by the Swiss in recent matches.
  • 6-1-2-5 goals scored in the Nations League by the Swiss. Very un-Swiss like.
  • They have scored and conceded last 3 matches.
  • This looks like Portugal keep it tight at home, and the Swiss, scoring 5 against Belgium recently, are very uncharacteristically attack-minded.
  • I would lay Portugal if Portugal scored first (maybe a 1-0 cover) here if this Swiss team continue their free-scoring.

UEFA U21 EURO QUALIFIERS

19:30 - San Marino U21 v Lithuania U21 - 1.33 Lithuania U21

  • Lithuania just limp over the line as far as being described as 'minnows' a la San Marino, Andorra, Leichtenstein etc.
  • Last head to head came in 2013.
  • The Lithuanian 2-2 v Faroes and 0-2 win v Finland suggests this San Marino side will within their compass.
  • San Marino have trouble even scoring so if scoring first today are immediately gettable.
  • I could see a 0-2, 1-2 win today for the away side.

FRENCH OPEN TENNIS

Madison Keys v Ashleigh Barty - 1.58 Barty

  • It's getting tougher and tougher now as the best form players remain.
  • 14th v 6th in the rankings.
  • Barty has won 6 in a row when priced as favourite.
  • Barty won the last head to head, Davis Cup, in 2 sets.
  • 2 sets, 3 sets, 3 sets, 2 sets v 67th, 134th, 120th and 43rd. This is a huge leap now for Keys v a top 10 player.
  • 2 sets, 2 sets, 2 sets, 3 sets for Barty v 71st, 33rd, 69th, 34th.
  • My ideal angle here? Madison Keys to win the first set. I would then back Barty at enhanced odds in lieu of an equalizing set. Barty's form looks a little more solid. Keys is yet to be tested.

Simona Halep v Amanda Anisimova - 1.19 Halep

  • Halep is one of those players who, if you fancy her to win, tends to cock it up, so when you leave her alone next match, she breezes it.
  • 3rd v 51st.
  • Anisimova has lost 5 in a row when the opponent is a top 10 player.
  • Halep has won 11 in a row at the French Open.
  • 3 sets, 3 sets, 2 sets, 2 sets for Halep this French Open. Halep lost the mid set in those 3 setters. If you want a value lay, therefore, lay Halep if she wins the first set (or lay 2-0 Halep set betting).
  • 4 consecutive 2 set wins for Anisimova. The eyecatcher was a win v 11th seed Sabalenka.
  • I will stick to my value call in laying Halep if she wins the first set. Her 3 setters were mid set loss matches.

Novak Djokovic v Alexander Zverev - 1.14 Novak

  • Djokovic had a period after achieving so much where he was lost in the desert. He looks back to his best now and meets AZ who is a lot less consistent but must be applauded for his battling qualities this French Open.
  • Note that Novak has edged over the 1.1 odds mark for the first time this French Open.
  • 1st v 5th.
  • Novak has won 25 in a row when a 5 setter; won 25 in a row at Grand Slam level; won 6 of the last 7 when opponent was a top 10 player.
  • Zverev has lost 8/9 when priced as a heavy underdog.
  • All 3-setters for Novak Djokovic this French Open.
  • The last 3 matches v top 10 for Novak are interesting. 2 tiebreaker wins v 5th seed, dropped set and tie breaker v 8th seed, and 3 set loss v 2nd seed. Note those tie breakers. It does suggest at the off, that 1.14 is a tad short. The value for me is laying 3-0 set betting Novak particularly if he takes a 2-0 lead.
  • Novak is yet to be tested this French Open and has not met a top 40 player yet.
  • 5 set, 3 set, 5 set, 4 set for AZ tells us that if he wins the first set it is highly unlikely that he will win 3-0. I would easily lay AZ if he leads 2-0.

Dominic Thiem v Karen Khachanov - 1.33 Thiem

  • 4th v 10th in the rankings. A huge improvement for Khachanov.
  • Thiem has won 9/10 when moderate;y priced favourite.
  • 4 set, 4 set, 4 set, 3 set win for Thiem v 136th, 90th, 50th and 16th. Strangely, the straight set win came v the lowest ranked player.
  • 3 sets, 4 sets, 3 sets, 4 sets for Karen. His beating of 8th seed Del Potro may have been clouded by a Del Potro knee niggle from the first round.
  • If 75% of Thiem's matches this French Open have seen him lose a set, it suggests to me that he may not win 3-0 even if 1-0 or 2-0 up. That could be an angle for me. Khachanov is one of those players rising in the rankings so is hitting his peak at the right time.