Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, July 5, 2017

See you for an 11:30am start. I intend to do a long session today. I do have to pick my folks up from the airport at some point but that should be the only distraction. See you @drtclub. Some good trades yesterday albeit Betfair went down.

Irina-Camelia Begu v Ana Konjuh - 1.4 Ana

  • 33rd v 34th - note the tight rankings.
  • Begu won at the same odds in 2015 on clay.
  • Both players beat a 100+ ranked player in the opener here.
  • Not a match I can get a handle on. the head to head is not ultra recent as I would like. The rankings are very tight but the odds very skewed in favour of Begu.

Dominika Cibulkova v Jennifer Brady - 1.33 Cibulkova

  • 4th v 76th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Cibulkova tried very hard to mess up her first round, eventually winning 9-7 in the 3rd set after winning the first set easily.
  • 6 losses in 7 for Cib is poor recent form.
  • 7 losses in 10 for Brady.
  • We have 2 out of form players. Yes, I did back Cibulkova pre tournament because seeing a World Number 4 at 100/1 is value but there is obvious reason behind that quote - poor form.
  • I will speculatively lay Cibulkova if Cibulkova wins the first set.

Heather Watson v Anastasija Sevastova - 1.74 Sevastova

  • 111th v 26th.
  • Last head to head was 2013.
  • Sevastova won on grass in Mallorca.
  • At Eastbourne, Heather reached the semi final and took a set off Wozniaki in defeat.
  • I will be with Heather who, admittedly not an absolute star player, tends to play above her ranking when in front of home support.
  • I do not expect a Heather 2-0 loss. That is my angle here.

Lukas Rosol v Gilles Muller - 1.16 Gilles Muller

  • Short and sharp. Like Feliciano Lopez, Gilles Muller is on my shortlist as a player to follow on grass.
  • Winner at 's-Hertogenbosch on grass and semi finalist at Queens, I expect 2 or 3 rounds at the least from Muller this Wimbledon.
  • Although Rosol is 2-0 in head to heads, these head to heads are not recent. Expect a comfortable Muller afternoon.

Peter Gojowczyk v Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.21 Agut

  • 139th v 18th.
  • 2-0 head to heads for Agut.
  • Peter went through qualifying to get here.
  • Interestingly, Peter's last 3 defeats came v sub 100 ranked players. His wins so far are v 100+ ranked players.
  • The players to have beaten Agut recently? Alexander Zverev, Ivo Karlovic, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Alexander Zverev ( 2 tie breakers).
  • It takes a good un to beat Agut and I cannot see Peter beating Agut. I will be entering this match with that to mind.

Maria Sakkari v Kristyna Pliskova - 1.47 Pliskova

  • 96th v 57th.
  • Sakkari recently retired. Always worth noting as there may be a niggle.
  • I see that Pliskova tends to be competitive if in defeat. So if Sakkari wins the first set, I would lay Sakkari in the expectation of a 3 set match.

Elena Vesnina v Victoria Azarenka - 1.51 Azarenka

  • This is not a match I want to get involved with. The returning Azarenka could re-find her obvious talent, or be ring rusty. There are easier matches to research.

Johanna Konta v Donna Vekic - 1.31 Konta

  • 7th v 84th.
  • 2 recent head to heads. In the grass Final at Nottingham, Vekic won after losing the first set.
  • Note Konta was 1.31 odds in that match.
  • Both players had a limited run at Birmingham.
  • It was pleasing that Konta beat Hsieh 6-2 6-2 after losing to the same player in the French Open.
  • She needs to do the same today. i.e. beat a player who beat her recently with the same pattern - Konta wins the first set and loses the next 2.
  • I will lay Konta if Konta wins the first set. I note her improvement v players who have beaten here, but she was 1.3 the last time these 2 met and lost.

Kei Nishikori v Sergiy Stakhovsky - 1.19 Nishikori

  • 7th v 101st.
  • Sergiy is 2-0 in head to head, albeit from 2011.
  • 5 setter and 4 setter for Sergiy so far was v 100+ ranked players. This tells us that Sergiy should not be winning 3-0 today. So let's hope Sergiy wins the first set, or better yet goes 2-0 up (see Gasquet v Ferrer where Gassa won the 3rd set from 2-0 down).

Aljaz Bedene v Damir Dzumhur - 1.34 Bedene

  • 68th v 90th.
  • Bedene beat Karlovic in 4 tie breakers and 8-6 final set. This is not compelling form. Karlovic, with his tie breakers, does present opportunities for players to win a set or two - win the key points.
  • Bedene lost to Gilles Muller last grass court warm up - Muller is in good form.
  • Damir has been a Challenger Tour participant mostly.He did win the Blois Challenger on clay and has not had a grass warm up.
  • I do not think that Bedene will be losing 3-0. He is not yet a top class player and will lost to a lower ranked player. He should be competitive today but is not backable for me at 1.34. Is he layable off the bat? I would prefer shorter lay odds.

Nikoloz Basilashvili v Sam Querrey - 1.23 Querrey

  • 61st v 27th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Both players have lost to Gilles Muller recently on grass. Querrey's opener was not that impressive - 7-5 and 7-6 sets suggests a tough match but he did win in 3 sets.
  • I think Sam's odds are too short. His odds rose yesterday. I would lay at 1.24 - put it this way I would not back at 1.23 - odds are too short. Basil did take a set off Gilles Muller on grass which impresses.

Ruben Bemelmans v Daniil Medvedev - 1.17 Medvedev

  • 133rd v 63rd.
  • Bemelmans went through qualifiers to get here.
  • A look at players Daniil has lost to, suggests he should cope with a 100+ ranked player. He has lost to Ivo Karlovic, Grigor Dimitrov and Novak Djokovic recently and of course beat Stan Wawrinka first round here.
  • I do not expect Ruben to win 3-0.

Jelena Ostapenko v Francoise Abanda - 1.14 Ostapenko

  • 50th v 185th.
  • French Open winner Jelena will always be popular in the markets.
  • 7 consecutive 3 setters for Jelena now though.
  • There is some collateral form with Caroline Wozniacki. Wozza lost in 3 sets to Ostapenko at the French open, and beat Abanda without Abanda winning a game.
  • I think Jelena will continue her progress today. You might want a cheeky lay of Jelena if she wins the first set, based on her 7 consecutive 3 setters now.

Rafael Nadal v Donald Young - 1.06 Nadal

  • 5th v 44th.
  • At Nottingham, we layed Novak Djokovic after winning the first set and Donald Young responded with a 7-6 tie breaker loss 2nd set.
  • I will do the same here. Lay Nadal at 1.07 and hope Donald remembers his solid fight back v Novak.
  • Rafa though has not dropped a set in 7 consecutive matches, 6 on clay of course.
  • I do not expect any change from my 1.07 lay but remember Tsonga v Olivo (1.06 Tsonga lost). Limited liability and 'the only way is up'.

Beatriz Haddad Maia v Simona Halep - 1.15 Halep

  • 146th v 5th.
  • Recent losses v 48th and 81st suggests struggles for Maia who beat Laura Robson yesterday.
  • Final, Final, Final, Quarter Final - you get the idea with Halep.
  • Expect a Halep win. Nothing in Maia form suggests she can threaten Simona.

Madison Brengle v Petra Kvitova - 1.12 Petra

  • 98th v 15th.
  • Petra won the most recent head to head in Tokyo at 1.21.
  • A great warm up for Petra, winning on grass in Birmingham.
  • Madison has been winning albeit v 100+ ranked players.
  • Expect Petra to win in straight sets. React if anything else.

Florian Mayer v Marin Cilic - 1.1 Cilic

  • 47th v 8th.
  • Cilic has yet to win in straight sets v Mayer.
  • Cilic is class. Quarter Finals at Rome, Roland Garros, Semi Final on grass at  's-Hertogenbosch and Final at Queens.
  • Cilic should be winning but always with Mayer I remember his golden warm up run in 2016  on grass.
  • On that basis, Cilic is a lay at 1.1 incase Mayer can nick a tie breaker or 2 and see Cilic's odds rise. Remember Cilic is yet to win in straight sets v Mayer.

Andy Murray v Dustin Brown - 1.09 Murray

  • 3-3-3 (first to 2 sets), 4 sets for Dustin Brown, Rasta Man, suggests if Dustin wins the first set, he will not win 3-0.
  • Murray should be winning. 1.1 odds I will lay him again knowing the liability is low and I am unlikely to collect but you never know with Dustin.He has taken sets off good players.

Barbora Strycova v Naomi Osaka - 1.33 Strycova

  • 17th v 46th.
  • Strycova won in Tokyo in 2015.
  • Strycova reached the quarters at Eastbourne, losing to Heather Watson. Osaki lost to Wozza in Eastbourne.
  • No strong angles for me here.

Thiago Monteiro v Karen Khachanov - 1.14 Karen

  • 80th v 56th so tight enough rankings.
  • No head to heads.
  • A 5 setter Russian battle for Karen in the first leg . His odds have crashed now.1.14.
  • 4 setter for Monteiro first round v 177th saw the last 2 sets as tie breakers.
  • I am with Karen here. He caught my attention in the clay court season. Beating the likes of Berdych caught my attention and on grass, he took Federer to a tie breaker semi final at Halle.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Simone Bolelli - 1.1 Tsonga

  • 11th v 536th.
  • Last head to heads 2009.
  • Bolelli has been through qualifiers.
  • Expect a Tsonga win. Bolelli was a household name. Strange to see him 536th - injury?

Kevin Anderson v Andreas Seppi - 1.32 Anderson

  • 66th v 74th. Tight rankings.
  • No head to heads.
  • Anderson has lost to Alexander Zverev, Kei Nishikori, Cilic (Anderson retired), and Gasquet. Solid yardsticks.
  • He beat solid yardstick Verdasco in his first round match.
  • Seppi reached the semi finals in Antalya.He took 4 sets v 105th in the first round.
  • Anderson should not be losing 3-0 today. He looks recovered from his hamstring injury.

Francesca Schiavone v Elina Svitolina - 1.24 Svitolina

  • 102nd v 13th.
  • Elina was a finalist in Istanbul, Rome, quarters in French Open.
  • She had a tough opener v Ashleigh Barty.
  • Schiavone was 1.13 odds yesterday but now outsider.
  • I expect Elina to win, and would lay Elina sub 1.1 odds as Schiavone is a battler. We did this at 1.04 Pliskova 4-2 up 2nd set, and Schiavone took her to a tie breaker 2nd set and a nice trade. Lay 1.04 back 1.67 high.