DRT Daily Research Bulletin, October 4, 2017
The International Football kicks off on Thursday when I hope to be able to follow it live.
There is no football of interest. As I mentioned yesterday, the tennis is frustratingly being played mostly pre-midday. I did enjoy Nadal's match with Pouille. Pouille won the first set and was 3-1 up in the tie breaker for the 2nd set. That is when you lay Pouille at odds of 1.35, sit back and watch the US Open (hard court) Champion pull a rabbit out of the hat. Of course, Nadal won the 2nd set and won the match thereafter. But that is how you turn a 1.14 odds shot into something approaching extreme value!
I will research some of the highlight matches today in case you feel like exercising your tennis trading muscles. Remember times are only indicative in tennis as matches are not allocated a specific amount of time.
Dusan Lajovic v Steve Darcis - 1.86 Darcis
- 84th v 76th so prepare for a tight one. The odds betray this as well. We tend to default to 3 setter here so laying the first set winner is the logical angle.
- Dusan has not been able to go deep into his tournaments.He reached the quarters on hard in Chengdu but that took only 2 wins.
- In this tournament he has 3 3 setters and the scalp of Verdasco who, for me, is a strong yardstick.
- Both Lajovic and Darcis went through qualifying and both won against top players in the first round. For Darcis, he beat 10th ranked Busta 'cap in his ass'.
- This looks highly competitive and I would be keener to lay Dusan if Dusan won the first set.
Monica Niculescu v Shuai Peng - 1.67 Peng
- 65th v 24th and 2 players I know little about. The fact Peng is Chinese automatically advantages her today.
- Their 5 head to heads have always been 3 setters.
- Monica had a dire grass court season.In 3 of her 4 hard court events, she lasted 2 rounds until losing in the 3rd round.
- She beat Konta here and Konta may have suffered jet lag, we know this does affect some players.
- Peng has had 4 3 setters in 5 matches. This tells me she is up for a scrap. So I would be laying Monica if Monica won the first set with more confidence. It does though look as if it might be a 3 setter.
Aljaz Bedene v Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.29 Agut
- 50th v 13th.
- Bedene won a head to head in 2015 in 2 tie breakers and you feel that is his way in today. Agut won 2 hard court head to heads in 2016 albeit one was a Bedene retirement.
- The other was a 3 setter where Agut lost the first set.
- Agut was a quarter finalist on hard in Canada, a winner at Winston Salem, and was stopped by Del Potro in US Open.He reached the semi finals in St Petersburg and this being Beijing, there is a concern regarding jet lag?
- Bedene has only had 2 hard court tournaments where he was knocked out in the first round.
- Agut really should be winning today but watch if Bedene takes a set, history tells us Agut will fight back.
Maria Sharapova v Simona Halep - 1.74 Sharapova
- Number 2 Halep v drug cheat Shara.
- Sharapova is 7-0 in head to heads including the US Open this year, where Halep won the middle set.
- 4 of the last 5 head to heads have been 3 setters.
- 7 3 setters in 8 matches for drug cheat Sharapova suggests Halep will get a sniff at a set today.
- I will look to a Halep reaction if losing the first set. In fact it looks like a match to lay the first set winner.
Elina Svitolina v Ashleigh Barty - 1.68 Elina
- 3rd v 37th and interesting to see only 1.68 about a world number 3.
- 2 wins for Elina in 2 2017 head to heads but very competitive. Her odds are likely to rise in play today.
- Barty in superb form and a list of who's who she beat in Wuhan to reach the final.
- 20, 17, 6 and 1st ranked are the only players able to beat her recently.
- Svitolina should eventually come through but I feel her odds are still too short 4 3 setters in 5 matches for Barty suggests she will not win 2-0 v world number 3.
Grigor Dimitrov v Juan Martin Del Potro - 1.76 Del Potro
- 8th v 24th.
- Dimitrov won the last head to head after consistently losing to Del Boy.
- Dimitrov won in Cincinnati on his way to the title. Very recent hard court form and that was 2 sets.
- Tough to get an angle in for me.
Daria Kasatkina v Agnieszka Radwanska - 1.67 Radwanska
- 31st v 13th.
- No head to heads.
- No strong angles for me.