I chose yesterday for a live chat because we had all lower leagues in England playing at the same time. And it paid off with some good angles. AFC Wimbledon though win the Mr. Magoo award for services to shooting and not scoring.
Today it is just the Champions League and a handful of Championship matches. This may not be enough to justify me staying up til midnight my time for a live chat today. Never say never though! If I am online, see you 19:45.
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (CL)
17:55 - Lokomotiv v Schalke - 2.52 Schalke
- Not the most appealing opener. Schalke have been waivering in the Bundesliga. Their first win came last match.
- Schalke have had trouble scoring - they were imperious last year and were this last year's Schalke, I'd be all over them today.
- A no play for this this match, in-play stats may reveal.
17:55 - Paris St-G v Crvena Zvezda - 1.08 PSG
- Oh boy, another heavy weight with a very poor recent Champions League record (a la Bayern and Real Madrid). 4 consecutive losses for PSG, albeit by Bayern, Real Madrid, Real Madrid again and Liverpool. Both teams have scored in PSG's last 5 CL matches.
- Only 2 losses at home for PSG since 2012 came v the Spanish giants.
- Crvena, better known as Red Star, have 4 draws in 5 matches and have been at it since July 2018. 2 recent 0-0's came at home.
- This is obviously a huge step up from the likes of Spartaks Jurmala, Suduva etc.
- 1.08 suggests 3/4 goals from PSG and a breakthrough before halftime and nothing in Red Star's form suggests a shock here. I do like to look at ways to take on 1.08 shots.
20:00 - Tottenham v Barcelona - 1.98 Barcelona
- I would love to be down White Hart Wemb-er-ley for this match. Barcelona will have seen Bayern Munich and Real Madrid falter and a possible inability for them to get through qualifiers, and double down v a Tottenham all too reliant on Harry 'you're only supposed to blow the bloody doors off' Kane.
- Tottenham have scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches. In 2018 in the CL, 2-2 v Juventus, 1-2 loss v Juventus, 2-1 loss v Inter Milan. 3-1 win v Real Madrid at home in 2017 catches the eye.
- Barcelona are yet another giant going through a poor run. This, as with Bayern, is down to management resting key players (Messi last match!). 2-2, 2-1 loss and 1-1 draw in La Liga for Barcelona.
- Since March 2017, Italian sides have been Barca's kryptonite, with only losses v Juventus and Roma.
- The value seekers will be looking to lay a Barcelona lead given the really poor runs from teams like Bayern and Real Madrid last night. Are the big guns struggling? This should be the Barca first team today and they should have too much for Tottenham. A really good match to watch and to follow inplay stats. I think Tottenham are too lightweight currently.
20:00 - Dortmund v Monaco - 1.37 Dortmund
- Dortmund are unbeaten in 10 matches. 11 goals scored in 2 matches.
- Dortmund have a very poor recent record in the CL. Only 1 win in 9 was a limping-over-the-line 0-1 v Club Brugge. That was the only match in which they did not concede in 9 matches.
- 2-3, 1-3,1-1, 1-2 at home last 4 CL matches. 2-3 loss was v......Monaco! This was a Monaco with a certain Mbappe chipping in with 2 goals. He has since gone on to better things.
- Monaco need Mbappe back. 0-1-2-1-1-1-0-0 goals scored recently without winning. Monaco failed to score in their last 2 matches.
- 7 losses and 2 draws in the CL recently for Monaco.
- 2 sides in poor CL form meet each other. The side with better domestic form, Dortmund, are selected by the market.
- The Champions League is tough to read isn't it? Do you want to lump on a side losing their last 4 home CL matches? But then, Monaco are lightweight up front, even with the superb Falcao in tow. Dortmund to simply outscore Monaco?
20:00 - Porto v Galatasaray - 1.52 Porto
- Benfica were cruising v AEK Athens last night, got red carded, 0-2 turned to 2-2, then a 2-3 win Benfica. Good stuff.
- Only 3 wins in 11 for Porto suggests they will not be lasting long in the CL. 1-1 away to Besiktas suggests they may target a good result v another Turkish side tonight.
- At home though, Besiktas won 1-3 in September 2017. 5-2-4-4-7-5 goals in total for Porto. So do not expect a 0-0.
- Only 1 draw in all competitions for Galatasary since April 2018.
- Only 2 wins in 15 CL matches for Galatasary, one was v Benfica!! 2-1 at home.
- Galatasary clearly are out of their depth in the CL. Porto are little better. The value seekers will note Gala's win v Benfica, and note Besiktas beat Porto at home and hope their country compatriots will do same. Value lay Porto if Porto score first? But then you trust a Gala with only 2 wins in 15 CL matches.
20:00 - Napoli v Liverpool - 2.24 Liverpool
- A fascinating match and my instinct is to stick with Liverpool.
- 5-0 Liverpool win....in a friendly. Napoli are another side with poor form in the CL. Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw. Wins v Feyenoord and Shakhter.
- 2-1 loss to Man City.
- 3 wins in 4 for Napoli at home v Nice, Feyenoord and Shakhter.
- 1-2 loss and 1-1 draw v Chelsea are the only recent blemishes for Liverpool. The Chelsea manager....ex of Napoli!
- In 13 of their last 16 CL matches, Liverpool have scored 2+ goals. They lost 4-2 to Roma last season and 3-1 to Real Madrid.
- I am personally with Liverpool not to lose. I like their goalscoring ability.
20:00 - Atletico Madrid v Club Brugge - 1.31 Atl Madrid
- Belgian sides for me, are like fish out of water in the CL
- 3 consecutive clean sheets for Atl Madrid coming at the right time.
- Since September 2016, Atl Madrid have only lost to Bayern, Real Madrid and Chelsea in the CL. Club Brugge do not hold a candle to these 3 teams.
- Only 3 home losses in the CL since 2008. Solid stuff.
- 10 defeats and a draw for Club Brugge in the CL backs up my initial point.
- We should assume a comfortable home win.
20:00 - PSV v Inter - 2.46 Inter
- Is the market reacting to Ajax 1-1 v Bayern Munich? for me, the dutch sides lack competition domestically.
- Only 2 wins in 11 CL matches for PSV came v BATE.
- PSV meet an Inter side who are clicking in Italian Seria A with 4 consecutive wins.
- Inter were last in the CL in 2012 so little to work from. 2-1 home win v Spurs impressed.
- I am personally with Inter Milan here not to lose, despite the market portraying to us a match in which it is hard to pick a winner.
19:45 - Rotherham v Bristol City - 2.14 Bristol City
- Last head to head February 2017.
- Win, Loss, Win, Win, Draw at home for Rotherham. Poor away, Rotherham are most likely to get a positive result at home.
- Only 1 match played at home by Rotherham v top 15 and they play 10th. Another gap in form leading me to halt my research. We get this sometimes early season. Bristol City have not played any of the bottom 7 away (Rotherham are 19th). They did beat 17th 0-3. Enough to hang your hat on an away positive result?
19:45 - Blackburn v Sheff Utd - 2.6 Sheff Utd
- 2.6 the favourite suggests we move on!
- Only 1 loss for Blackburn. 2 of 3 wins came away. 6 draws.
- Blackburn are unbeaten at home.
- Blackburn have not led at halftime at home. Yet to meet a top 4 side at home.They play 5th today.
- With Blackburn 14th, Sheff Utd, in 4th, have 5 wins and a 0-0 v 12th and lower home and away. Again, this looks overwhelming evidence for consistent form v lesser lights.
- The reason for 2.6 odds? Sheff Utd are compelling but Blackburn are unbeaten at home. Personally, I am taken by the consistency of Sheff Utd v 12th and lower. Winning.
19:45 - Sheff Wed v West Brom - 2.08 West Brom
- West Brom are goal machines.
- Both teams have scored in all bar 1 match for Sheff Wed. 3 losses came away.
- West Brom have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 8 matches. 6 wins, a draw and a loss to Middlesbrough.
- I cannot see West Brom losing today and I cannot discount a score draw. That is how I will approach this match. West Brom certainly look compelled to score. Both teams are assumed to score today. West Brom's goal scoring has me clearly favouring them.
19:45 - Derby v Norwich - 2.14 Derby
- 1-2 Derby and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
- Loss, Win, Win, Draw, Win at home for Derby. Last 2 losses came away and were only 1-0.
- Derby though have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Only home loss for Derby came at home, a 1-4.
- Only 2 matches played home and away v top 13.
- Norwich's 3 defeats are clustered v top 4 teams. Is this a sign that they are favoured today v current 9th? A big gap in form though with NO matches played v 9th-16th inclusive.
- More gaps in form, but I am quite taken by the fact that Norwich have so far lost only v the top 4. Enough to expect Norwich not to lose v a Derby inserted as favourites?
19:45 - Nottm Forest v Millwall - 1.97 Nottm Forest
- Strictly on current form, we side with Forest not to lose. Only 1 defeat. BUT 6 draws and only 3 wins.
- those 3 wins came at home. Forest have failed to score in only one match.
- Millwall have 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches. Only 1 win. Only 1 clean sheet for Millwall.
- Millwall have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- The odds look right here. Forest really should eye these wobbly Lions. Remember Forest have failed to score only once and could have 2 goals in them.
- Enter this match expecting Millwall not to win, even if leading.