I suppose the clues were there last night. That 'anomolous' 3-0 away Real win in head to heads stood out. Atl Madrid's league form (unable to beat top 7 away) and Real scoring in every match in the league this season. Still I did not trade.
Today's matches look equally as tough to call. I have made an effort based on the stats. Monaco v Juventus is a great example of Attack v Defence. Juventus' ability to keep Barcelona out is a superb example of their strengths. It is up to you if you want to get involved tonight. There is a big program of league football at the weekend.
17:45 - Ajax v Lyon - 2.48 Lyon
- The odds themselves tell you that the market finds it difficult to split these 2 teams in this Europa League first leg semi-final match.
Ajax recent form all competitions
- Only 4 defeats in 2017 in all competitions. Not won their last 2 matches though, one was in the Europa League, the other a tight match with top dutch side PSV.
- 11 straight home wins in all competitions.Since 11th September 2016, Ajax have 21 wins, a draw and a loss in a friendly at home. That must give them confidence.
Ajax Europa League form
- Only 2 defeats in 15 matches. The defeat to Schalke came after Ajax already beat Schalke 2-0.
- Unbeaten in 12 at home with 6 consecutive wins.
Lyon recent form all competitions
- Only 3 wins in 9 matches.
- 4 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, a win, loss, loss and a win.
- Scored and conceded in 11 of their last 13 away matches.
Lyon Europa League form
- Only 1 loss in 7 was against a Roma side who Lyon beat 4-2 at home. A 'convenient' loss I would call it.
- 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines again for Lyon - Loss, Win, Loss.
- Lyon away have tended to be emphatic. 1-4, 0-1, 1-4, 2-1 (loss to Roma - again a 'convenient' loss, 2-1 loss). 1-4 was achieved against a dutch side AZ.
- I am sorry for sitting out first leg matches, or at best taking my cues from the in-play stats. This is a semi-final.
- Ajax we learn above are excellent at home and should have a degree of confidence.
- What do we learn about Lyon? They tend to score and concede don't they? And 2-1 turns up a lot.
- From the latter, backing 2-1/1-2 is a possible trading angle. In this case we want a 1-1 in order to trade out of both of those scorelines for a profit.
- This is just a speculative angle. This is the Europa League. The market has the favourite at 2.48. It is a first leg and will be tactical given the away goal rule.
19:45 - Monaco v Juventus - 2.48 Juventus
- Coincidentally the same odds as the above match and likely as hard a nut to crack.
- Here we have the archetypal Attack v Defence in what is going to be a great tactical spectacle. As with the above match, we might learn something by looking at both teams' recent form in all competitions, and recent form in the Champions League in isolation.
Monaco recent form all competitions
- 10 wins and 2 defeats both v PSG in the last 12 matches. Solid stuff.
- Scored 2 goals at least in 10 of those matches.
- In 9 of 12 matches there, both teams scored.
- 20 wins and 2 losses in 22 home matches. Monaco must be supremely confident at home. Lyon and PSG were the only victors.
- 7 consecutive home matches saw both teams score. Monaco just tend to score more than their opponents.
Monaco Champions League form
- Scored 3 goals in each of their last 4 champions League matches against the likes of Man City twice and twice against Dortmund.
- 8 wins and a 1-1 draw v Bayer in their last 9 Champions League home matches.
- 0-0 with Juve at home way back in April 2015 I don't think is relevant to today given the changes at Monaco.
Juventus recent form all competitions
- Only 2 defeats since 3rd December 2016 came away to Fiorentina and Napoli (in the Coppa Italia so may have fielded a weakened side).
- Scored 2 goals at least in 6 of their last 7 matches. Failed to score 2 v Barcelona but that was a containment job over 2 legs.
- Juventus see a marked decline in recent wins away. Only 2 wins in 7, but only 1 loss by the same token = DRAWITIS!
- 1-1-1-2-2-0-2 scored recently away. Note that increase in scoring recently. Is this a deliberate tactic with this match in hand? Get that away goal or goals?
Juventus Champions League form
- 8 clean sheets in 10 matches, superb. It just tells you where their strengths lie.
- Juventus kept the likes of Barcelona from scoring, not once, but twice! That's Messi, Suarez, Neymar with a dummy stuck in their mouths to keep them quiet!!
- 4-1-3-2-0 scored in recent aways. Note the 0 was v Barcelona in a 2nd leg having already won 3-0 at home so it was not a must-score match, rather a must not lose 3-0 match.
- Caveat - I will probably not be playing this match but what kind of a case can we make from the above?
- Monaco are superb at home. But both teams are scoring. That is why Monaco, to keep winning, have had to score 2 goals at least in 10 of their last 12 matches. Now turn that into the Champions League and they are scoring 3 goals versus all-comers!
- Like Monaco, Juventus have a recent habit for scoring 2 goals. The only match they did not score 2 in recently was away at Barcelona where they had already inflicted the damage at home.
- In 3 of their last 4 away, Juventus have started scoring 2 goals. Is that deliberate? A deliberate tactic to try and up the away match scoring rate?
- Here is where Juventus shine. 8 clean sheets in 10 matches, keeping Barcelona from scoring twice. Can they keep that up v Monaco? Answer that question and you have your trading angle?
- This could be a 2-2, it could be a 3-2 or Juventus clean sheets could kick in and them win 0-2. I personally am happy to go with these 3 scorelines but note it is more for an interest rather than in having a very strong trading angle. Is there anything from the above form that makes you side one way or another? Or will you wait for the in-play stats which for instance yesterday revealed an utterly dominant Real Madrid side.