DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 3, 2018
Some good angles last night - did you note the 0-0 at halftime in the Wolves match? Now if I went for 2-2 in research, I hope you took that 0-0 on 2nd half? Did you note that Ipswich lead and red card. In research I was strongly with Fulham even without the advantage of 11 v 10 men. West Brom led. In research I pointed to West Ham scoring 2+ goals v lower sides. 2-1 win West Ham. A good set of trading angles.
A small set of matches today. Arsenal v Chelsea is too tough to call. Juventus look 'up for the up' and have a good record in Turin Derby matches so that is a match I would fix on. Feirense do 1-0's! Work with that inplay . Porto have failed to score only twice. 6 0-0's at halftime at home Rio Ave but NONE at fulltime (see Wolves match).
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
19:45 - Arsenal v Chelsea - 2.5 Chelsea
- A high profile London Derby and not really a match I can fathom as these tend to be 'best on the day'. On a quiet day, I will research.
- 0-0 on 17th September 2017 when these 2 last met.
- In the last 13 matches, Arsenal have only been beaten by the 2 Manchester teams.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Only home loss came v Manchester United.
- Scored in their last 10 at home.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Not beaten a top 4 team home or away.
- 4 consecutive clean sheets.
- Only 1 loss in 13 matches was v West Ham away.
- Unbeaten away v top 11.
- 1-1 and 1-2 win v 4th and 5th away.
- As per my opening comment, too tough to call. Note Chelsea are scoring and conceding v top 5. Look for that today v 6th?
- Note Arsenal are yet to beat a top 4 team, so 1-1 or 1-2 correct score for Chelsea?
ITALIAN COPPA ITALIA
19:45 - Juventus v Torino - 1.4 Juventus
- Coppa Italia match and a Turin Derby so you would think both teams will be giving 100% in a competition where other teams' attitudes are questionable.
- 5 Juventus wins in 6 head to heads in all competitions.
- Home form all competitions - only 1 loss in 14 matches was v Lazio; 5 consecutive clean sheets; 6 wins and 2 0-0's in the last 8 matches.
- Overall form all competitions - 7 wins in 9 matches, the other 2 matches were 0-0. 8 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Cup form home and away - only 1 loss in 13 was a 2-3 v Napoli.
- Cup form home - 7 consecutive home wins scoring 2+ goals.
- Away form all competitions - only 2 wins in 8 matches. 3-2-2 goals scored last 3 aways; scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 aways.
- Overall form all competitions - only 1 loss in 11 matches; scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches;
- Cup form home and away - 3 consecutive wins includes away v Roma; 2 defeats in 9 matches were v Juventus and Milan.
- Cup form away - 7 consecutive losses ended v Roma last match.
- We always have to include a caveat with Cup matches ....IF the teams are up for it, then Juventus are justified their favouritism. They seem up for the cup, 7 consecutive home wins attests to that.
- Away from home in the cup, Torino had 7 consecutive defeats until they beat Roma.
- In Seria A Juve recently beat Torino 4-0 . In the cup recently Juve and Milan beat Torino.
- Torino like scoring and conceding so if Torino score first I would lay them.
PORTUGEUSE PRIMIERA LIGA
18:15 - Boavista v Braga - 2.2 Braga
- 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 the last 3 head to heads AT Boavista. Braga tend to be equally as effective in head to heads at home.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Scored 2 goals only once at home.
- No draw in 7 at home.
- Only 1 win v top 12 was a home win v 3rd placed Benfica.
- All wins bar 1 came v 13th and lower.
- Only 1 loss in 9 matches came away last match.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- No 0-0.
- 10 wins and a loss v 7th and lower.
- 6 of 8 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Head to heads at Boavista have been tight. On this season's form. Braga have a good chance here.
- Boavista have only scored 2 goals once at home (albeit v Benfica) but it signals to me to lay Boavista if Boavista scored first.
- 10 wins for braga v 7th and lower suggests good form. I will nod towards the away side.
20:15 - Feirense v Porto - 1.21 Porto
- 1-1 and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
- Only 4 wins.
- 9 defeats and 2 1-0 wins last 11 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Last 4 home matches were 1-0 or 0-1.
- 7 1-0 scorelines in 8 matches (5 of those were losses).
- All defeats v top 5.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Undefeated at halftime away.
- Yet to concede 2 goals away.
- Not conceded an away goal first half.
- Porto are highly likely not to lose today but it could be a 0-1 win and a goal we might have to wait for. Do not be surprised with a concerted 0-0 given Feirense's love of 1-0 scorelines.
- Do expect an eventual Porto goal.
20:15 - Rio Ave v Pacos Ferreira - 1.74 Rio Ave
- 2-1 pacos and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
- 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win last 5 at home.
- Conceded in their last 6 at home.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home but no 0-0 at fulltime at home.
- All bar one defeat came v top 7 sides.
- 2-1 home wins v 16th and 18th.
- 8 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- No goal scored in 30 mins of any home match.
Pacos Ferreira (15th)
- 4 losses and a draw in 5 matches.
- No away win.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
- Strictly on form, Rio Ave should be feeling positive. They tend only to lose to top 7 sides.
- If 0-0 at halftime, I would expect a 2nd half goal.
- This match could edge towards 2-1 if both teams score (as occurs in recent Pacos matches) and Rio Ave do not lose (Pacos yet to win an away match).
- It goes without saying that Pacos look layable if scoring first.
21:30 - Benfica v Sporting Lisbon - 2.44 Benfica
- 0-1 Benfica, 2-1 benfica and 1-1 last 3 head to heads.
- Only 1 defeat.
- Failed to score only once.
- 100% home win record.
- Unbeaten at halftime.
- Only played one of the top 10 at home, a 3-1 win v 4th.
- Failed to score only v top 2 team Porto.
- 6 wins in 7 away.
- Not played the top 5 away.
- Neither team has really played a contemporary in the top 3 this season so we are left with little to work with.
- A match for the in-play stats and again the market, quoting 2.44 the favourite, gives you the hint that it was tough to call.