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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 3, 2021

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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Fulham v Leicester - 2.04 Leicester

Fulham - 18th

  • Only 3 losses in 10 matches but no win in 10 matches = drawitis.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats v Chelsea and Man Utd.
  • 1-2 v 2nd, 1-1 v 3rd at home.
  • 5/7 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Leicester - 4th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came last match v Leeds United.
  • Draw, Win, Draw last 3 away, 2 1-1 draws and both teams scoring in all.
  • No defeat in 5 away.
  • Scored in last 8 and last 5 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Unbeaten away v 6th and lower.
  • 16 of 21 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 1-1 looms with both sides recent formlines.
  • Both teams to score has a chance here but I would favour Leicester to avoid defeat. I cannot see them losing a 2nd consecutive match to a newly promoted side.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • 1st goal: Fulham have conceded first in 5/10 home matches while Leicester have scored first in 8/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Fulham have lost 6/10 home matches.

18:00 - Burnley v Man City - 1.24 Man City

Burnley - 16th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches v Liverpool and Aston Villa.
  • Have conceded 2 goals last 2 matches, most unlike Burnley. Man City was the only side, prior to the last 2 matches, to score 2+ goals v Burnley.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Failed to score in defeat to the 2 Manchester sides.
  • Failed to score at home v the top 7.

Man City - 1st

  • 8 consecutive wins.
  • 10 wins and 2 draws last 12 matches.
  • 10 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Scored last 9 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 away matches.
  • All wins bar 2 draws home and away v 7th and lower.
  • 8 goals scored at home 16th-30th minute away.

Conclusions

  • We have to choose whether Burnley will over-react defensively to being pummelled 5-0 by City last time and put up firm resistance or whether City will score before halftime as they have done on 12 occasions away this season.
  • With Burnley on a 2 match 2 goal concession sequence, I favour the latter so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • If Burnley score 1, they are unlikely to follow up given the City clean sheet record of late.
  • 1st goal: Burnley have conceded first in 8/8 home matches against top-six teams while Man City have won 8/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Burnley have lost 6/8 home matches against top-six teams.

19:30 - Leeds v Everton - 2.58 Leeds

  • Leave this to the in-play stats. Leeds 3 goals v Leicester away but at home have scored 1-0-1-0-1-5-1-0 goals. 5 v Newcastle but the general pattern not healthy.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 5/9 Leeds home matches while Everton have drawn the first half in 6/10 away matches against middle-third teams. Everton have lost 14/20 away matches against middle-third teams.

20:15 - Aston Villa v West Ham - 2.28 Aston Villa

Aston Villa - 9th

  • A run of 3 without a win has ended with Win, Loss, Win recently, going down 3-2 in the defeat.
  • A draw and 2 consecutive wins, at home, all 3 clean sheets.
  • Only played one of the top 10 at home, a win v Liverpool!
  • 2-1 loss to the Hamsters earlier this season.

West Ham - 5th

  • It takes a top team to beat them. Recently? Liverpool twice, Man Utd and Chelsea.
  • 4 consecutive wins ended with a loss v a Liverpool rediscovering their scoring touch.
  • A draw and 2 consecutive wins away.
  • Only 1 win away v 8th and lower.
  • 11 goals in total scored and conceded last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • It takes a good side to beat West Ham and on that basis I would consider favouring them. There is that element of the unknown as Villa have only played one of the top 10 at home so we have no real idea how they'll set up v top 10 when at home.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Aston Villa home matches against top-six teams and in 7/10 West Ham away matches. West Ham have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

20:15 - Liverpool v Brighton - 1.4 Liverpool

  • Liverpool are best judged on their last 3 matches in all competitions, scoring 2-3-3 goals. They have rediscovered the lethal scoring of old and that may spell disaster for Brighton.
  • Brighton have really tightened it up with a 1-0 loss to Man City, 0-1 win v Leeds, 0-0 v Fulham and 1-0 win v Tottenham who, based on the in-play stats, did not turn up.
  • Angles? Can we expect 2/3+ goals from Liverpool for the 4th consecutive match? The forward line has clicked and that spells trouble for a Brighton side with a single goal max in them.
  • 1st half outcome: Liverpool have won the first half in 12/20 home matches while Brighton have conceded first in 16/20 away matches against top-six teams. Liverpool have won 11/13 home matches against bottom-six teams.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

18:00 - Hamilton v Ross County - 2.25 Ross County

  • The bottom 2 in the SPL so I won't dwell too much on this match.
  • 0-1 loss and 0-2 win for Hamilton in the 2 head to heads this season.
  • Hamilton's only 2 home wins came v 9th and 10th
  • 3 away wins for Ross County came v 4th, 8th, and...Hamilton, all wins requiring clean sheets and 2 of them 0-1.
  • Angles? One of those matches where both sides will logically be eyeing 3 points.
  • 1st goal: Hamilton Ac have conceded first in 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have lost 11/18 home matches. Ross County have drawn the first half in 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.

18:00 - Motherwell v Dundee Utd - 2.00 Motherwell

Motherwell - 10th

  • 0-1 loss and 1-1 v Dundee Utd this season.
  • Scored 2 goals only twice at home.
  • Did beat Ross County last match but I believe, from memory, that Ross were red carded.
  • 0-0 v Aberdeen and 1-1 v Rangers are the standout recent home results.
  • Atill, no win in 6 at home.

Dundee United - 7th

  • 3 draws and 2 defeats last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • An interesting market given Dundee Utd tend to avoid defeat away and are unbeaten in 2 v Motherwell. Motherwell's recent draws v Aberdeen and Rangers are very eyecatching in the context of meeting 7th.
  • Muddling market for me.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/7 Dundee Utd away matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 5/7 such matches. Motherwell have scored first in 12/16 home matches against middle-third teams.

19:45 - Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.22 Rangers

  • 100% home wins for Rangers.
  • 2 3-0 wins already this season v St Johnstone.
  • St Johnstone have not beaten the top 5.
  • Angles. No indepth research. Rangers should win comfortably and score before halftime.
  • 1st half outcome: St Johnstone have drawn the first half in 10/15 away matches against top half non-Big One teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 12/20 St Johnstone away matches. Rangers have won 10/10 home matches against middle-third teams.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:00 - Bordeaux v Lille - 2.10 Lille

Bordeaux - 10th

  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home, 3 at fulltime.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • Played only one match v the top 7 at home.

Lille - 1st

  • 5 wins and a loss last 6 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 3 1-0 wins in 4 matches.
  • Scored last 10 away.
  • Only 1 away loss.

Conclusions

  • Gap in form Bordeaux only met one top 7 side at home. Lille are in excellent form though and I expect them not to lose.
  • Bordeaux keep a lot of 0-0's at halftime.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/16 Bordeaux home matches against top-six teams and in 9/12 Lille away matches. Lille have scored first in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

18:00 - Metz v Montpellier - 2.50 Metz

  • 1st goal: Metz have scored first in 9/17 home matches while Montpellier have lost 7/9 away matches against top-six teams. Montpellier have had L/L double results in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

18:00 - Reims v Angers - 2.70 Reims

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Reims home matches against top-half teams and -1.5 goals in 7/12 Reims home matches. Angers have conceded first in 5/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

18:00 - Rennes v Lorient - 1.60 Rennes

Rennes - 5th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 came last match v 1st in the league.
  • Win, Win< Draw, Loss at home.
  • Not played 15th or lower at home but unbeaten v them away.
  • 0-3 win last head to head.

Lorient - 18th

  • 2 consecutive 3-2 wins came at home. Kept PSG very quiet and to 2 penalties only.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 away.
  • In 4 of their last 5 matches, both teams scored at least 2 goals.
  • All defeats away v the top 10.
  • 6/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lorient were coupon busters last match. But the market is solidly with Rennes this match. Rennes not played 15th or lower at home but solid away augurs well.
  • Interestingly, both teams have scored 2 goals at least in 4/5 Lorient matches. They could well concede 2 away as they have done in 4/5 away recently but will they score 2?
  • Match outcome: Rennes have won 12/20 home matches while Lorient have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches. Lorient have lost the first half in 7/10 away matches.

18:00 - Strasbourg v Brest - 2.20 Strasbourg

Strasbourg - 15th

  • 3 wins, a draw and a loss last 5 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 0-3 win v Brest earlier.

Brest - 14th

  • 5 losses and a win last 6 matches.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away matches.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • Only 2 away wins came v 6th and 19th.
  • 12 goals conceded away last 30 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Not too keen on the form lines here. Strasbourg failing to score v 2 teams above Brest in the league, yet beating Brest with ease earlier this season.
  • Possible late action if Brest keep conceding late on.
  • 1st goal: Strasbourg have scored first in 7/11 home matches against middle-third teams while Stade Brestois have lost the first half in 6/7 away matches against bottom-six teams. Stade Brestois have had L/L double results in 5/7 away matches against bottom-six teams.

20:00 - Dijon v Lyon - 1.33 Lyon

Dijon - 19th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 3 draws and 2 losses last 5 matches.
  • No win in 5 and in 11 at home.
  • 8 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not beaten top 12.
  • 4-1 loss last head to head. A match I remember as Dijon scored first and Lyon were winning by halftime.

Lyon - 2nd

  • Only 2 losses, one came 17th Jan.
  • No defeat 9 away.
  • Scored last 10 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.

Conclusions

  • Dijon have trouble even scoring so are vulnerable if leading today. Lyon won easily last head to head, are undefeated in 9 away and scored 2+ goals last 3 away. It all looks rosey for Lyon.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 6/9 Lyon away matches against bottom-six teams and +2.5 goals in 12/20 Lyon away matches. Dijon have drawn 6/9 home matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Lens v Marseille - 2.40 Lens

  • 1st goal: RC Lens have scored first in 4/6 home matches against middle-third teams while Marseille have lost 10/16 away matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 14/18 Marseille away matches against top-half teams.

20:00 - Monaco v Nice - 1.50 Monaco

Monaco - 4th

  • 6 wins and a 2-2 last 7 matches.
  • 2-3-3 goals scored at home recently.
  • Scored and conceded in 5/6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • 10/14 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Nice - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 12 came away.
  • Won last away match 0-1.
  • Not played top 5 away. Draw and 4 losses at home v top 5.

Conclusions

  • Cote D'Azur derby. On seasonal form though, if Nice are losing to top 5 with home advantage that does not augur well away. Neither does the 2+ goals scored by Monaco latest. I am with the home side here who may concede and score.
  • Match outcome: Monaco have won 7/10 home matches while Nice have lost 7/10 away matches against top-six teams. Nice have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - PSG v Nimes - 1.08 PSG

  • 2nd match for new PSG manager after an embarrassing 3-2 loss at odds of 1.14 in his opening match. If Pocchetino loses this one, this will be the quickest hiring and firing this season.
  • That is the context here. PSG did not turn up v Lorient so do get some in-play stats confirmation.
  • Match outcome: Paris St-G have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Nimes have lost 13/19 away matches. Paris St-G have won by two or more goals in 8/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

20:00 - St. Etienne v Nantes - 2.05 St Etienne

St Etienne - 16th

  • Only 2 wins since 20th September 2020.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 3 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 15th and lower, scoring 2 goals.
  • 2-2 last head to head.

Nantes - 17th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • No win in 13 and in 6 away.
  • Conceded last 4 and last 6 away.
  • Only played 1 of 14th and lower away, a 0-2 win v 18th.
  • 7/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Not enough form for me to be conclusive here although St Etienne consistently score 2 goals at home v 15th and lower.
  • Match outcome: Saint-Etienne have won 8/12 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have won the first half in 5/8 such matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 13/20 Nantes away matches against bottom-six teams.