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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 31, 2018

There is a DRT Facebook live chat this evening.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/288630934852757/ is the link. Join me at 19:00 tonight. Only 2 matches on at 19:00 but I can talk about specific elements of DRT.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Chelsea v Bournemouth - 1.29 Chelsea (shortlist)

  • 5 consecutive Chelsea wins in all competitions in head to heads augurs well for them today.

Chelsea

  • Only 4 losses.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 home matches too.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% home wins v 9th and lower.

Bournemouth (12th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches without losing.
  • Solid home wins v Everton and Arsenal but no win in 6 away saw 4 draws and 3 score draws.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • 100% defeats v top 5 albeit away, 1-0 v 2nd and 5th. May make Chelsea work? It was only 0-1 last time these 2 met this season.

Conclusions

  • Chelsea like meeting Bournemouth and with them keeping clean sheets regularly, Chelsea look the likeliest first scorers.
  • 1-0 again? Do prepare for rear guard action from Bournemouth albeit they have been scoring and conceding recently.
  • 0-0 at halftime would not surprise. 0-0 fulltime may surprise.
  • Remember Bournemouth have conceded in their last 11 matches.

19:45 - Everton v Leicester - 2.68 Leicester

  • A market which tells you this could be a tough match to evaluate. I am guessing the market is non commital because of the new managers for each side.
  • 10 games in for Everton's Big Sam and 15 matches in for Leicester's new manager Claude Puel.

Everton (9th)

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches to begin Big Sam's reign but now Everton have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches, have no win in 6 matches and 3 losses in their last 4 matches.
  • At home, Everton remain strong under Big Sam, with 4 wins, a draw, a loss v Man Utd, and a draw v West Brom latest.

Leicester (7th)

  • Unbeaten in 3, 2 wins at home and a 0-0 v Chelsea.
  • No win in 3 now for Leicester away, sees 2 losses v Watford and Liverpool and a draw v Chelsea.

Conclusions

  • The market is right again. Everton are strong at home under Big Sam but have no win in 6 matches overall.
  • Leicester are unbeaten in 3, keeping clean sheets and indeed kept Chelsea from scoring. A match for the in-play stats.
  • Strictly speaking, Everton do their winning at home v teams below them in the league and Leicester have not actually beaten a top 14 team away from home. On that basis, you'd be with Everton here but as I say, too tough to call for me.

19:45 - Newcastle v Burnley - 2.28 Newcastle

  • 1-0 Burnley the last time these 2 met.

Newcastle (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches came within the last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats in those last 6 matches were v Manchester City.
  • 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 1-1 in the last 4 home matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away. You'd think Premier League survival is based on performances outside of the top 10.

Burnley (8th)

  • No win in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive defeats, 2 v Liverpool and Man Utd.
  • 0-0-2-0-1-0-0 goals scored recently. Strangely scored 2 goals against Manchester City!
  • Failed to score as you see in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 6 wins this season were 1-0, one was 1-2 and the other 2-0.
  • v 14th and lower, home and away, 3 0-0's, 3 1-0 wins, a 0-1 loss and a 2-0 win v bottom of the league.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • This match will not be a shortlisted match so that may be a hint in itself.
  • Both sides are struggling for that 2nd goal. Burnley I feel will look to score first half, get that 0-1 and sit on it. 3 0-0's and 3 1-0's v teams 14th and lower looks a deliberate tactic. Add to that, 8 of 11 goals scored away coming 1st half and you see why I argue for this.
  • I would chance a back of 0-0 pre-match and hope these 2 are as blunt in attack as the form suggests.
  • On form, Burnley should be favoured. Newcastle it seems will be picking their points up away from the top 10 teams.

19:45 - Southampton v Brighton - 1.8 Southampton

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.

Southampton (18th)

  • No win in 11 matches and in 5 at home  - bring back Le Tiss. Worrying times in the bottom 3.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches without actually winning.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 loss v 14th and lower, albeit 5 draws and a 1-0 win!
  • Unbeaten at home v 14th, 15th, 19th and 20th.
  • Austin is the top scorer with 6 goals, 5 at home. That sums up the Saints well, I feel.

Brighton (16th)

  • Only 1 win in 13 matches.
  • No win in 5 and in 6 away.
  • Failed to score in their last 6 away.
  • 2 away wins but it is clear that Brighton are collecting the majority of their points at home.

Conclusions

  • No win in 11 plays 1 win in 13! Oh Lordy. Brighton are not scoring away and even a blunt Southampton may take advantage although their scoring and conceding habit at home and overall leaves Saints vulnerable. They are unbeaten at home v 14th and lower and I will enter this match expecting the Saints not to lose, so that covers laying any Brighton lead here.

20:00 - Man City v West Brom - 1.16 Man City (shortlist)

  • 2-3 City when these 2 last met.
  • We have another new manager in Alan Pardew at West Brom.
  • He is 10 matches into his tenure so that will be my Baggies focus.

Man City (1st)

  • Only 1 loss was 4-3 v Liverpool.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No defeat in 12 at home with 11 consecutive wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of those 11 wins.
  • 2 0-1 losses at halftime. Embrace those as City have been unbeaten at home!
  • 6 1-0 leads at halftime is about half of home matches.
  • In 9 of 12 home matches, City scored 3 goals at least.
  • 29 of 42 goals scored at home came 2nd half so fear not if 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime.
  • 13 goals scored in the last 15 mins of home matches (Raheem Sterling time is usually 85th+ minute).

West Brom (19th)

  • Bottom 3 but a win could take them as high as 15th.
  • First win since 27th August came last home match v Brighton.
  • No win in 11 away.
  • Lost to top 3 at home, not played them away.
  • 0-0 v Liverpool and 1-1 away v Tottenham suggests the template for today.

Conclusions

  • West Brom have only 1 win since 27th August 2017. That will have Pep Gladioli shaking in his boots.
  • City on form are expected to score at least 3 goals. If they do not score first half, they are highly likely to score 2nd half.
  • If 1-1 late on, back City late on (80th+ minute). They have scored 13 late goals this season.
  • There is nothing in West Brom which suggests an upset.

20:00 - Stoke v Watford - 2.32 Stoke

  • Paul lambert is 2 matches into his Stoke managerial career. Xabi Gracia is the new Watford manager.
  • This makes this match wholly unappealing from a research perspective. As I hope I have shown you this season, new managers can engender quick improvements. We have new managers for each side. Which, if any, will see the instant improvements and changes in fortune?
  • The in-play stats may reveal all.

20:00 - Tottenham v Man Utd - 2.4 Tottenham

  • The home team has won each of the last 6 head to heads.
  • These top team clashes are usually 'best on the day' i.e. form tends not to play a part. I will do some research though to see if there are any patterns.

Tottenham (5th)

  • Only 1 loss in 10 was against Man City.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss v 3rd.
  • 3/3 losses v top 3 teams.
  • 18 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Man Utd (2nd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 3 draws and 3 wins last 6 matches.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Not beaten top 4 yet. 1-0 and 0-0 away v top 4.

Conclusions

  • Man Utd's struggles this season have tended to come v top 3 sides. I say struggles - 2 losses and a 0-0.
  • Tottenham are yet to beat a top 3 sides with 3/3 losses.
  • On basic form like this, we favour Man Utd. They beat Spurs 1-0 last time these 2 met.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA

19:00 - Boavista v Maritimo - 2.16 Boavista

  • We saw yesterday with Estoril that these mid table teams in a peripheral league may be tough to read in-play.
  • 3-0 Boavista and 1-0 Maritimo in the last 2 head to heads.

Boavista (9th)

  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • All defeats home and away came v top 11 teams.
  • Beat Benfica at home.

Maritimo (6th)

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Losses away v 1st, 3rd, 8th, 12th and 17th.
  • 11 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It didn't work with Sheff wednesday last night. Will it work today? 2 Maritimo 0-0's in a row to end?
  • Boavista are more vulnerable v top 6. Enough to lay them if they score first? Other than that, not a match which appeals.

19:00 - Chaves v Setubal - 1.92 Chaves (shortlist)

  • 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.

Chaves (7th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches came v Benfica last match.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 home matches.
  • No defeat in 7 matches at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 5th and lower.
  • 1-1 v Setabul earlier this season.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Setabul (17th)

  • 4 consecutive score draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No win in 10 and in 9 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 14 matches.

Conclusions

  • Chaves are in great recent form. Given both teams have a strong scoring and conceding pattern, I think we'll see goals from both sides without Setabul necessarily winning.
  • That is the simple angle there.

21:00 - Sporting Lisbon v Guimaraes - 1.3 Sporting (shortlist)

  • 3 draws and a comprehensive Sporting win in the last 4 head to heads.

Sporting Lisbon (3rd)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Could go top with a win.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • 100% home wins v 6th and lower - 6 clean sheets in those wins.
  • All 4 conceded home goals came last 15 mins of matches.

Guimaraes (8th)

  • 4 losses in the last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away losses.
  • No draw in 10 and in 8 away.
  • 4-2 away loss v 1st, 1-3 home loss v 2nd, 0-5 home loss v 3rd does suggest vulnerability here v another top 3 side.
  • 9 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Guimaraes tend to concede heavily v the top 3, they may yet score but I would have to side with Sporting Lisbon even if Guimaraes lead.
  • Sporting tend to score first and lead at halftime at home  in 70% of matches so we are unlikely to see a trading angle (which would be a 0-0 at halftime or a Guimaraes lead).

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Hibernian v Motherwell - 1.73 Hibernian (shortlist)

  • 2-2 and 0-1 Hibs in the last 2 head to heads.

Hibernian (4th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 was a 1-0 v Celtic last match.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches and given they failed to score last match I feel it is more likely Hibs will score today.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Losses at home v 2nd, 3rd, 8th and 10th. 2-2 and 0-1 win v Motherwell this season.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 6th and lower.

Motherwell (6th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • 5 away losses ended with a draw last match.
  • No 0-0.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 10/12 away.
  • Away wins v 3rd, 9th and 10th.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. It is a strong pattern for both sides (Hibs v 6th and lower and Motherwell v top 4 away).
  • I think Hibs will score today given they failed to score last match and have failed to score in only 3 matches. Motherwell tend to concede first.
  • I would have to lay Motherwell if Motherwell score first.

19:45 - Ross Co v Aberdeen - 1.76 Aberdeen (shortlist)

  • 2 1-0 Aberdeen wins and now 2 Aberdeen 2-1 wins in recent head to heads.

Ross Co (12th)

  • No win in 11 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 12 at home.
  • 7 defeats in their last 9 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 100% defeats v top 4 teams.

Aberdeen (3rd)

  • Only 2 losses in 8 came away v Celtic and Rangers.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v top 2 teams.

Conclusions

  • I would have to be with the away side today. Ross County may yet score but not win.
  • Aberdeen only tend to lose to the top 2 teams.
  • Ross County must be opposed if leading. What chance another 1-2 Aberdeen win?