Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

It's another jam-packed evening of football. I will certainly try my best to stay up for a DRT Facebook chat. 17:00 looks a good start time.

ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

  • I am not researching these matches. They are all high-profile affairs and mix in a bit of squad rotation, making these matches best approached via the in-play stats. Liverpool v Arsenal - always tasty. Aston Villa v Wolves? Black Country(ish) derby. Chelsea v Man Utd - another top 4 clash. We know Man Utd's attitude to this competition in the past.

19:30 - Liverpool v Arsenal - 2.08 Liverpool


19:45 - Aston Villa v Wolves - 2.24 Aston Villa


20:05 - Chelsea v Man Utd - 1.96 Chelsea


SPANISH LA LIGA

18:00 - Valencia v Sevilla - 2.6 Sevilla

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Valencia home matches against top-six teams and in 14/19 Sevilla away matches. Sevilla have scored first in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • All 3 losses for Valencia came away.
  • Unbeaten at home. Both teams have scored in all bar 1 home match.
  • Valencia failed to score only once.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Valencia have not beaten a top 8 side home or away.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Sevilla came at home.
  • 3 away wins and now 2 away losses for Sevilla.
  • 2 of 3 sides Sevilla beat were Real Madrid and Barcelona.
  • Angles? No strong patterns early season. Sevilla have had only one draw this season. Lay any late draw?
  • Best case for Valencia score draw? Do remember (as with Parma yesterday), 2.6 the favourite suggests a lack of trust in these sides.

18:00 - Sociedad v Levante - 1.52 Sociedad

  • 1st half outcome: Real Sociedad have won the first half in 6/8 home matches against bottom-half teams and they have scored first in 6/8 such matches. Levante have lost 9/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Sociedad (5th)

  • Only 1 draw came first match of the season.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Sociedad failed to score in only one match.
  • 2-3-1-3 goals scored at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% win record v 13th and lower.
  • 6 of 9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Levante (14th)

  • Only 3 wins, 2 came at home. Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss away.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right. Levante have only beaten bottom of the league away and have failed to score last 2 matches.
  • 2+ goals for Sociedad?
  • Note too Sociedad keep avoiding the draw.

19:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol - 1.95 Ath Bilbao

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 16/19 Ath. Bilbao home matches and in 6/8 Espanyol away matches against middle-third teams. Espanyol have drawn the first half in 5/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

Ath Bilbao (12th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches were the only 3 losses all season.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Win, Win, Win, Loss, Draw at home.
  • No over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not played the bottom 7 at home.

Espanyol (19th)

  • Only 2 wins did come away.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not played the top 12 away yet but 100% defeats at home v top 9.

Conclusions

  • A strong under 2.5 goals pattern for both teams should signal backing 0-0 pre-match in the hope this pattern continues. Cash out as late as possible.
  • gaps in form for both sides is a concern. Both sides failing to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.

20:00 - Betis v Celta Vigo - 2.14 Betis

  • Match outcome: Real Betis have won 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Celta Vigo have lost 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. Celta Vigo have conceded first in 8/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Both sides have had only 2 wins.

Betis (17th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches at home.
  • Opponents have scored first in all 5 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Celta Vigo (18th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • No away win. 2 consecutive away losses.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • 9 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • No first half goals away.

Conclusions

  • Back 0-0 pre-match if these goal-less first halves continue.
  • But do expect at least a goal 2nd half.
  • Ask yourself....can I trust strugglers?

20:15 - Real Madrid v Leganes - 1.29 Real Madrid

  • Match outcome: Real Madrid have won 18/20 home matches against bottom-six teams while Leganes have had L/L double results in 5/6 away matches against Big Two teams. Leganes have lost 6/6 away matches against Big Two teams.
  • What a contrast between these 2. First loss of the season for Real came last match away at Mallorca. First win of the season for Leganes came last match at home to....Mallorca. Spooky or what?
  • Real Madrid tend to score 2+ goals at home and Leganes tend not to score more than 1.
  • Real have led at halftime in 3/4 home matches.
  • Angles? Should be as comfortable as the market suggests. Leganes are vulnerable if they can only score one goal maximum. Note Real Madrid have not conceded a first half goal yet this season at home.

ITALIAN SERIA A

18:00 - Napoli v Atalanta - 2.1 Napoli

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Napoli home matches against top-six teams and +3.5 goals in 10/18 Atalanta away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 15/20 Atalanta away matches.

Napoli (4th)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 3 wins and a 0-1 loss at home.
  • 2 goals scored in the home wins.
  • Not played top 6 at home but the 2 losses came v 2nd and 7th.

Atalanta (3rd)

  • Unbeaten bar a 2-3 loss v Torino.
  • Brilliant scoring record. 2+ goals in all matches. 3+ goals on 5 occasions and in 4 consecutive matches now.
  • Only 1 clean sheet though.
  • Not played top 4 away yet.

Conclusions

  • Be careful here. 2 top 4 sides whose solid form has largely come outside of the top 4 i.e. we have little to gauge performance v the best.
  • Atalanta's goal scoring does suggest they have a goal in them....but again the strong record is away from the top 4.

20:00 - Udinese v Roma - 2.08 Roma

  • 1st goal: Udinese have conceded first in 12/17 home matches against top-six teams while Roma have scored first in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Udinese have lost 10/12 home matches against top-six teams.
  • a simple angle here which is serving us well. Udinese, if they win, tend to win 1-0. If they lead, as they have done last 2 matches, take out insurance on the 1-0 and oppose Udinese.

Sassuolo v Fiorentina - 2.56 Fiorentina

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/14 Sassuolo home matches and in 6/8 Fiorentina away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Sassuolo home matches.
  • Not a market which appeals. We saw with Parma yesterday that the unexpected is not unexpected at 2.4+ odds.
  • Only 3 wins for Sassuolo. 2 at home, but 2 consecutive home losses now.
  • Sassuolo failed to score in only one match.
  • 2-1 loss, 2-2, 1-3, 0-0 away for Fiorentina. Only 1 loss in 7 matches for Fiorentina came last match v Lazio.
  • Angles? Too early in the season for strong form angles. Note Sassuolo do have a goal in them.

Sampdoria v Lecce - 1.76 Sampdoria

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 5/5 Lecce away matches and +3.5 goals in 4/5 Lecce away matches. Sampdoria have drawn the first half in 7/9 home matches against promoted teams.
  • 2 bottom 5 teams and Sampdoria, bottom of the league, are favourites? What gives?
  • Only 1 win for Sampdoria. Only 2 wins for newly promoted Lecce came away v Torino and SPAL.
  • Lecce have not kept a clean sheet.
  • Lecce have beaten 12th, 13th and 19th away and play 20th today.But Sampdoria have played only 1 match at home v 7th and lower. Gap in form and playing 16th today.
  • Angles? Can you trust these 2? The market thinks this is an ideal opportunity for bottom side Sampdoria to record a win against a clearly struggling newly promoted side.

Cagliari v Bologna - 2.6 Bologna

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Bologna away matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 5/10 Bologna such matches. Cagliari have drawn the first half in 9/13 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • I don't like fixating on these odds matches. Cagliari only lost their first 2 matches. 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches.
  • Cagliari failed to score only first match of the season.
  • 3 losses for Bologna v Roma, Udinese and Juventus, 2 coming last 2 away matches.
  • 4-0-0-1 goals scored away by Bologna.
  • Bologna's wins have come v 18th and lower and they play current 7th.
  • Angles? Suffering from a lack of matches producing a lack of patterns but noticeable that Bologna are yet to win outside of 18th place i.e. strugglers early season.
  • Please remember, a la Parma last night, that any result is possible with a 2.6 favourite. On form, we are with Cagliari though.

Lazio v Torino - 1.6 Torino

  • Match outcome: Lazio have drawn 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Torino FC have drawn 6/9 away matches against top-six teams. Torino FC have drawn the first half in 8/12 away matches.

Lazio (6th)

  • 2 losses came away from home.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Draw. 1-1, 2-0, 4-0, 3-3 at home.
  • Failed to score only against Inter Milan.
  • 4-2-3-2 goals scored in recent matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 9th-16th at home.
  • 7 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Torino (12th)

  • Only 3 wins, 2 of which came at home.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats, 2 were 1-0.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Lazio's goal scoring exploits of late really catch the eye. And that should be enough to counter any Torino lead.
  • There is an argument to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market, but I do note a couple of 1-0 losses for Torino so they threaten to keep it tight.
  • Gap in form is a slight concern. Lazio have not played 9th-16th at home (Torino are 12th).

Juventus v Genoa - 1.27 Juventus

  • HT/FT: Juventus have had W/W double results in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Genoa have lost the first half in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams. Juventus have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Juventus (2nd)

  • Unbeaten. All wins bar 2 draws.
  • 4 consecutive wins at home.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.

Genoa (17th)

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • A draw and 3 losses away. 3-3-4-5 goals conceded.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.

Conclusions

  • We should expect the home win and 2/3+ goals for Juventus.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

19:45 - Motherwell v Kilmarnock - 2.34 Motherwell

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/10 Kilmarnock away matches against top half non-Big One teams and they have drawn the first half in 7/8 such matches. Motherwell have scored first in 11/14 home matches.
  • 4th v 3rd early season. All defeats for Motherwell v the top 6, 3 losses v top 6 at home.
  • Kilmarnock have not met 2nd - 7th away this season so a gap in form there.
  • Angles? Not too keen here. Motherwell are conceding 2 goals v top 6. Enough to go to war with?

Ross Co v Rangers - 1.22 Rangers

  • +2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 50% of home matches against top half non-Big One teams since 2014-15. There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 Rangers away matches. Rangers have won 3/5 away matches against promoted teams.
  • Ross have not met the top 5 at home. Rangers are 2nd. They did lose 1-4 v 7th at home and lost 6-0 away to 1st.
  • Rangers have only lost to Celtic this season.
  • 1-2, 0-1. 0-4, 1-1 away for Rangers. A hint that they might struggle to be emphatic away.
  • Angles? As emphatic as the market suggests. Gaps in form. Ross have not played the top 5 at home so an element of assumption here that Ross will struggle v the big 2.

St Johnstone v Hearts - 2.68 St Johnstone

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 St Johnstone home matches against bottom-six teams while Hearts have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +1.5 goals in 13/20 Hearts away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 'I'll get me coat!' 2.68 the favourite. No thank you.
  • St Johnstone are bottom. Hearts are 4th bottom.
  • St J's only losses at home came v 2nd, 3rd, 4th
  • Hearts have only lost to top 5 home and away.
  • Angles? It looks as if these 2 sides could excel v lesser lights (such as their opponents!).

Hibernian v Livingston - 1.99 Hibs

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/17 Hibernian home matches and they have drawn the first half in 7/11 home matches against middle-third teams. Livingston have conceded first in 12/20 away matches.
  • Only 1 win for Hibs came v 10th. Hibs are 11th. Livvy are 7th.
  • Both teams have scored in 4/5 Hibs matches.
  • Both teams have scored in all of Livingston's away matches. They have only beaten newly promoted Ross away. They conceded 2+ goals away v 2nd, 3rd, 8th and 12th.
  • Angles? 4 consecutive score draws for Hibs suggests they may concede but not lose. Add in Livvy's 3 consecutive away defeats while scoring and that would be my angle here.

Celtic v St Mirren - 1.12 Celtic

  • Match outcome: Celtic have won 11/12 home matches against bottom-six teams while St Mirren have lost 6/10 away matches. Celtic have had W/W double results in 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 3-6-3-7 goals scored by Celtic at home is bang in line with a 1.12 odds favourite. St. Mirren are 3rd bottom.
  • 0-1 loss at home v Rangers. 1-0 loss away v Kilmarnock for St Mirren. Might they keep it tight?
  • Angles? We really expect 3+ goals.

Hamilton v Aberdeen - 1.74 Aberdeen

  • 1st goal: Hamilton Ac have conceded first in 11/18 home matches while Aberdeen have won 10/15 away matches against middle-third teams. Aberdeen have scored first in 10/17 away matches.
  • 2 wins for Hamilton came v 3rd and 7th at home.
  • Aberdeen have beaten 4th away, 6th at home, 7th away and 9th at home and play 8th today.
  • Outside of the top 2 away, Aberdeen have conceded 0-0-0-1 goals.
  • Angles? I quite like Aberdeen here. A thinking that they will not concede more than 2 goals today. A ready angle if Hamilton score first.

ITALIAN SERIA B

  • Benevento let me down at the weekend but are at home today and I think are reliable. Only 1 loss. We do expect that Benevento will score at home. Frosinone are newly relegated too and are at home, worth shortlisting.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

17:00 - Rio Ave v Moreirense - 1.65 Rio Ave

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Rio Ave home matches against middle-third teams and +3.5 goals in 5/9 Rio Ave such matches. Moreirense have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against top half non-Big Three teams.
  • Win, Draw, Loss, Loss at home for Rio Ave.
  • They failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • A gap in form here. Rio Ave have not met 9th-17th at home and play 12th today.
  • All defeats for Rio Ave came v the top 7.
  • Similarly, gap in form for Moreirense. Not played top 8 away, lost to 9th, 10th, 11th away.
  • Angles? Gaps in form early season suggest treading warily. No collateral form to work from.
  • The Challenge Table suggests that if Moreirense are losing away to 9th, 10th and 11th, then they may struggle v 8th?

18:45 - Maritimo v Porto - 1.34 Porto

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Maritimo home matches against Big Three teams and they have drawn the first half in 9/13 such matches. FC Porto have won 14/16 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Draw, Loss, Loss, Win at home for Maritimo. Both teams have scored at home.
  • Maritimo have failed to score in only 1 match. their last match.
  • A loss and all wins for Porto points us the way of the market.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches for Porto.
  • Angles? It looks clear cut. Porto's defence should be on top here. And keep Maritimo from scoring those goals to get a win.
  • A potential win to nil for Porto.

20:00 - Guimaraes v Belenenses - 1.42 Guimaraes

  • 1st goal: Vitoria S.C. have scored first in 13/14 home matches against bottom-six teams while Belenenses have lost 12/17 away matches against top-six teams. Vitoria S.C. have won 11/17 home matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches for Guimaraes. They have only lose v 2 of the big 3 (Porto and Sporting) away from home.
  • 1-1-5-1 scored at home. When they scored 1 goal , they got 2 draws and a win.
  • Only 2 wins for Belenenses. 0-0, 0-0, 1-3 , 3-1 away. 0-0-3-1 goals scored away.
  • With Guimaraes 5th, Belenenses have lost to all top 8 home and away.
  • Angles? This looks clear cut. Draw worst case for Guimaraes. Value seekers might eye the fact that Guimaraes have scored 1-1-5-1 at home. If they stall at one goal, they might be layable, particularly if the match is 1-0 late on.

20:15 - Benfica v Portimonense - 1.22 Benfica

  • Match outcome: Benfica have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Portimonense have lost 6/6 away matches against Big Three teams. Benfica have won by two or more goals in 8/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • It's Benfica v Porto at the top. One consolation for Benfica? Porto are playing away from home.
  • Benfica have all wins bar a loss v Porto.
  • 6 clean sheets this season.
  • Benfica only failed to score in one match.
  • Portimonense have won only one match this season.No win in 6 matches.
  • 1-2, 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 away. Does not seem to be the kind of form to trouble Benfica.
  • Angles? If Portimonense are losing to top 4 sides....at HOME, then logic suggests an away defeat v 2nd today.
  • Benfica's last 2 wins were only 1-0  but trust that clean sheet if 0-0 late on and back Benfica 1-1 if 0-0 late on.

21:00 - Famalicao v Gil Vicente - 2.08 Famalicao

  • 1st goal: Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 62% of away matches against promoted teams since 2014-15 and bottom-six promoted teams have lost 59% of away matches against promoted teams since 2014-15. Top-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 50% of home matches against promoted teams since 2014-15.
  • A superb season for newly promoted Famalicao ended v Porto last match.
  • 1-0, 4-2, 3-1 at home .They failed to score only last match.
  • Gil Vicente have failed to score in 5 matches this season and have won only one match.
  • Angles? Famalicao are meeting Gil for the first time. Hence the hesitancy to price Famalicao as their form suggests - shorter odds.
  • With Gil Vicente struggling to score, lay them if they score first.