Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Man Utd look like the United of the Fergie era. 0-2 down and backable at 20/1 in the +1 market, they drew 2-2 with 87th and 90th minute goals. The English Premier League continues this evening, along with French, Scottish and Portuguese league football. Attack v Defence is apparent with Liverpool and Southampton's matches. Tottenham still leave us wondering how they cope without Alli and Kane. Son is back from Asian Cup duty.


19:45 - Bournemouth v Chelsea - 1.7 Chelsea

Bournemouth (12th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 home matches but recent overall form is dire.
  • Only 2 clean sheets since 3rd November 2018.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • 1-2 at home v 5th and 6th.

Chelsea (4th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Only 4 losses all season.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 8 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.


  • Bournemouth form is good recently at home but put into context, they have not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • Indeed Chelsea's form v 8th and lower is exemplary, unbeaten and tending towards clean sheets away.

19:45 - Southampton v Crystal Palace - 2.48 Southampton

  • A match to look at briefly. Why? New manager Southampton and 2.48 the favourite.
  • Since the new manager, Saints have found their scoring feet - 3-3-1-1-0-2-2, 4 wins out of these. They have scored and conceded in all bar 1 match under the new manager.
  • Win, Loss, Loss, Win at home under new manager. Losses v West Ham and Man City.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches for Palace.
  • Only 1 loss for Palace v teams below them in the league but only met 2 of the teams 15th and lower away.
  • 5/5 clean sheets for Palace v 16th and lower.
  • Attack v defence today? No wonder the market is 2.48 the favourite! If Southampton continue their scoring, it must be a good opportunity for them today.

20:00 - Liverpool v Leicester City - 1.26 Liverpool

  • The above match may be attack v defence. So might this one.

Liverpool (1st)

  • Only loss v Man City.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 7 consecutive Liverpool home wins.
  • No draw in 12 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 matches at home.
  • All wins bar a draw v 2nd at home.
  • Led at halftime in 7/11 at home.

Leicester City (9th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 away were 0-1.
  • Not played the top 3 away.Beat 4th 0-1.
  • 14 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.


  • Be careful with this Leicester side. They can be very defensive. With Liverpool scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches, this is your archetypal attack v defence. LIverpool statistically could score first half and if Leicester score, it is likely a 2nd half goal.

20:00 - Tottenham v Watford - 1.7 Tottenham

  • I cannot do indepth research here given the lack of attackers for Spurs.
  • Their previous form saw Alli, Son, Kane contribute.
  • Son might return for Tottenham. But he is fatigued from the Asian Cup. Alli and Kane are still out.
  • No draw this season for Tottenham. I cannot look at recent form as Kane and Alli and Son were playing.
  • 3 draws in 4 for Watford who have lost only 1 match in 8 v Chelsea. Watford have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Watford have not met the top 4 away. 5 losses in 6 v the top 6.
  • A muddling affair best watched. If Son does play, he is an ample replacement for Llorente.


20:00 - Nantes v St Etienne - 2.76 Nantes

  • Oh Lordy, 2.76 the favourite. Yikes.
  • I will head to the Challenge Table first here. 15th placed Nantes meet 4th placed St Etienne. Nantes have yet to play the top 4 at home. They beat 6th 2-0.
  • St Etienne have met one of the bottom 7 away, so another gap in form. Beat 20th away.
  • St Etienne have an away pattern. 3/3 losses away v top 3. Draws generally away v 5th-11th. Lost 3-2 away v 12th. Win v 13th and 20th away.
  • 13 of 16 goals conceded by St Etienne away came 2nd half. 13 of 18 goals scored at home by Nantes came 2nd half.
  • Nantes last 4 losses were 1-0 only.
  • For me, a slight nod towards St Etienne who tend to have a pattern of loss, draw, win, the lower they go down league positions away from home. Ergo best chance for a win today?


19:45 - Celtic v St Johnstone - 1.22 Celtic

Celtic (1st)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 4-5-5-3-3-4-3- goals scored at home recently.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 7 at home.
  • Not conceded a first half goal at home. Scored 18!
  • Led at halftime in 8/11 at home.

St Johnstone (6th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 6 wins in the last 7 away.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away is 55% of matches.
  • 4 away losses came v 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th conceding 2+ goals in those matches.


  • For all their excellent away form recently, St Johnstone still tend to lose to the top 6, conceding 2+ goals.
  • Celtic are expected to score 3+ goals.
  • Now, the contrarian would see the 6 0-0's at halftime away for St J, and the strong 2nd half scoring and conceding away, and actually back 0-0 pre match at what will be really juicy odds. Logic suggests a Celtic first half goal but if St. J. can build on recent momentum and 0-0's at halftime away, we might get a trade out of this.


18:30 - Betis v Espanyol - 1.93 Betis

  • 1-1 from the first leg sees advantage Betis with that away goal.
  • Whoever scores first, the opponent will have to reply. The team first to 2 goals without their opponent scoring 2 goals, will go through.
  • Little else really to get our teeth into.

20:30 - Barcelona v Sevilla - 1.28 Barcelona

  • Game on. 2-0 from Sevilla in the first leg sees Barcelona requiring a 2-0 just to regain parity.
  • Barcelona lost their last 1st leg match away and won the home leg.
  • Barcelona have an excellent win record and score record at home in the Copa and I expect 2+ goals from them today on that basis, and if you think about it, they need 4 goals really if Sevilla score once given the away goal rule.
  • Any other home score a possible?


19:00 - Setabul v Sporting Lisbon - 1.71 Sporting

  • 1-1 and 2-1 Sporting in the last 2 head to heads.

Setabul (12th)

  • 5 losses and 2 draws in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Losses to top 4 this season. Lost to 1st and 2nd at home, failing to score.

Sporting Lisbon (4th)

  • Lost their last 2 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 5 matches came at home.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away (25%).
  • 8 away matches played. Only 3 wins away v 6th, 9th and 10th saw both teams score.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.


  • Sporting Lisbon are vulnerable away from home and likely to concede. But are they simply meeting the right side? A team losing to the top 4, and at home without scoring?
  • Watch out here for potential surprises with Sporting.
  • Statistically lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

21:15 - Porto v Belensenses - 1.2 Porto

  • The last 2 head to heads were cup matches, wins. In the league in 2018, we saw 2-0 Belenenses and 2-3 Porto! Interesting considering the emphatic market.

Porto (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • 100% wins v 6th and lower home and away.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once at home.
  • Led at halftime in 6/9 at home.

Belenenses (7th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Scored in their last 8 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not played the top 3 away. Lost 2-1 away to 4th. all 4 defeats this season came v top 4.
  • 9 of 10 away goals scored away came 2nd half.


  • Belenenses are in good nick.But is the fact they lose to the top 4, and all defeats came v the top 4, enough to suggest they will struggle v the top 4. 100% wins v 6th and lower suggests Porto should win, but in 2018 in the league, Belenenses scored 2 goals twice v Porto!
  • Value in a lay of Porto, particularly if they score first.