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Man Utd look like the United of the Fergie era. 0-2 down and backable at 20/1 in the +1 market, they drew 2-2 with 87th and 90th minute goals. The English Premier League continues this evening, along with French, Scottish and Portuguese league football. Attack v Defence is apparent with Liverpool and Southampton's matches. Tottenham still leave us wondering how they cope without Alli and Kane. Son is back from Asian Cup duty.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Bournemouth v Chelsea - 1.7 Chelsea

Bournemouth (12th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 home matches but recent overall form is dire.
  • Only 2 clean sheets since 3rd November 2018.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • 1-2 at home v 5th and 6th.

Chelsea (4th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Only 4 losses all season.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 8 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Bournemouth form is good recently at home but put into context, they have not beaten a top 6 side home or away.
  • Indeed Chelsea's form v 8th and lower is exemplary, unbeaten and tending towards clean sheets away.

19:45 - Southampton v Crystal Palace - 2.48 Southampton

  • A match to look at briefly. Why? New manager Southampton and 2.48 the favourite.
  • Since the new manager, Saints have found their scoring feet - 3-3-1-1-0-2-2, 4 wins out of these. They have scored and conceded in all bar 1 match under the new manager.
  • Win, Loss, Loss, Win at home under new manager. Losses v West Ham and Man City.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches for Palace.
  • Only 1 loss for Palace v teams below them in the league but only met 2 of the teams 15th and lower away.
  • 5/5 clean sheets for Palace v 16th and lower.
  • Attack v defence today? No wonder the market is 2.48 the favourite! If Southampton continue their scoring, it must be a good opportunity for them today.

20:00 - Liverpool v Leicester City - 1.26 Liverpool

  • The above match may be attack v defence. So might this one.

Liverpool (1st)

  • Only loss v Man City.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 7 consecutive Liverpool home wins.
  • No draw in 12 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 matches at home.
  • All wins bar a draw v 2nd at home.
  • Led at halftime in 7/11 at home.

Leicester City (9th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 2 wins in 3 away were 0-1.
  • Not played the top 3 away.Beat 4th 0-1.
  • 14 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Be careful with this Leicester side. They can be very defensive. With Liverpool scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches, this is your archetypal attack v defence. LIverpool statistically could score first half and if Leicester score, it is likely a 2nd half goal.

20:00 - Tottenham v Watford - 1.7 Tottenham

  • I cannot do indepth research here given the lack of attackers for Spurs.
  • Their previous form saw Alli, Son, Kane contribute.
  • Son might return for Tottenham. But he is fatigued from the Asian Cup. Alli and Kane are still out.
  • No draw this season for Tottenham. I cannot look at recent form as Kane and Alli and Son were playing.
  • 3 draws in 4 for Watford who have lost only 1 match in 8 v Chelsea. Watford have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Watford have not met the top 4 away. 5 losses in 6 v the top 6.
  • A muddling affair best watched. If Son does play, he is an ample replacement for Llorente.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

20:00 - Nantes v St Etienne - 2.76 Nantes

  • Oh Lordy, 2.76 the favourite. Yikes.
  • I will head to the Challenge Table first here. 15th placed Nantes meet 4th placed St Etienne. Nantes have yet to play the top 4 at home. They beat 6th 2-0.
  • St Etienne have met one of the bottom 7 away, so another gap in form. Beat 20th away.
  • St Etienne have an away pattern. 3/3 losses away v top 3. Draws generally away v 5th-11th. Lost 3-2 away v 12th. Win v 13th and 20th away.
  • 13 of 16 goals conceded by St Etienne away came 2nd half. 13 of 18 goals scored at home by Nantes came 2nd half.
  • Nantes last 4 losses were 1-0 only.
  • For me, a slight nod towards St Etienne who tend to have a pattern of loss, draw, win, the lower they go down league positions away from home. Ergo best chance for a win today?

SPL

19:45 - Celtic v St Johnstone - 1.22 Celtic

Celtic (1st)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 4-5-5-3-3-4-3- goals scored at home recently.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 7 at home.
  • Not conceded a first half goal at home. Scored 18!
  • Led at halftime in 8/11 at home.

St Johnstone (6th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 6 wins in the last 7 away.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away is 55% of matches.
  • 4 away losses came v 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th conceding 2+ goals in those matches.

Conclusions

  • For all their excellent away form recently, St Johnstone still tend to lose to the top 6, conceding 2+ goals.
  • Celtic are expected to score 3+ goals.
  • Now, the contrarian would see the 6 0-0's at halftime away for St J, and the strong 2nd half scoring and conceding away, and actually back 0-0 pre match at what will be really juicy odds. Logic suggests a Celtic first half goal but if St. J. can build on recent momentum and 0-0's at halftime away, we might get a trade out of this.

SPANISH COPA DEL REY

18:30 - Betis v Espanyol - 1.93 Betis

  • 1-1 from the first leg sees advantage Betis with that away goal.
  • Whoever scores first, the opponent will have to reply. The team first to 2 goals without their opponent scoring 2 goals, will go through.
  • Little else really to get our teeth into.

20:30 - Barcelona v Sevilla - 1.28 Barcelona

  • Game on. 2-0 from Sevilla in the first leg sees Barcelona requiring a 2-0 just to regain parity.
  • Barcelona lost their last 1st leg match away and won the home leg.
  • Barcelona have an excellent win record and score record at home in the Copa and I expect 2+ goals from them today on that basis, and if you think about it, they need 4 goals really if Sevilla score once given the away goal rule.
  • Any other home score a possible?

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

19:00 - Setabul v Sporting Lisbon - 1.71 Sporting

  • 1-1 and 2-1 Sporting in the last 2 head to heads.

Setabul (12th)

  • 5 losses and 2 draws in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Losses to top 4 this season. Lost to 1st and 2nd at home, failing to score.

Sporting Lisbon (4th)

  • Lost their last 2 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 5 matches came at home.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away (25%).
  • 8 away matches played. Only 3 wins away v 6th, 9th and 10th saw both teams score.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Sporting Lisbon are vulnerable away from home and likely to concede. But are they simply meeting the right side? A team losing to the top 4, and at home without scoring?
  • Watch out here for potential surprises with Sporting.
  • Statistically lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

21:15 - Porto v Belensenses - 1.2 Porto

  • The last 2 head to heads were cup matches, wins. In the league in 2018, we saw 2-0 Belenenses and 2-3 Porto! Interesting considering the emphatic market.

Porto (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • 100% wins v 6th and lower home and away.
  • Conceded 2 goals only once at home.
  • Led at halftime in 6/9 at home.

Belenenses (7th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Scored in their last 8 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Not played the top 3 away. Lost 2-1 away to 4th. all 4 defeats this season came v top 4.
  • 9 of 10 away goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Belenenses are in good nick.But is the fact they lose to the top 4, and all defeats came v the top 4, enough to suggest they will struggle v the top 4. 100% wins v 6th and lower suggests Porto should win, but in 2018 in the league, Belenenses scored 2 goals twice v Porto!
  • Value in a lay of Porto, particularly if they score first.