The tennis at the US Open began, and then it was suspended. Third time lucky today? There are a lot of incomplete matches. I will research as many matches as I can and hope to be able to trade on Twitter from, I am guessing, 16:00 onwards. I hope those new to DRT can get an understanding of tennis and how I trade tennis matches. A good example? Ivo Karlovic (as you read below), is adept at tie breaker sets (i.e. 6-6 sets which go to a 'tie breaker' or shoot out). This means that his opponent always has a chance to 'nick' the set with a good service game. And so it happened last night. I advised backing Big Ivo at 2.00 as that is a good price based on the fact he was 1.3 odds pre match and also based on the fact that he could present a set to his opponent but, as a top 25 player, should be positioned to fight back against an opponent who recently lost in 2 straight sets against another big server in Big John Isner.
Before play suspended Ivo broke Bjorn's serve in the second set and the 2.00 at which we backed Ivo can be layed at 1.55 for a guaranteed profit (which is what I have done).
So fingers crossed for good weather in the Big Apple and I will see you at 16:00 @drtclub for a gentle romp into the world of tennis trading for a few hours. In the absence of football, tennis is an excellent sport to trade. In a lot of areas, it is far simpler to trade. We look for players making a horlicks of their matches, back them at high odds, and wait for the hoped-for comeback to reduce the odds. At Twitter there are multiple Price screenshots. Please look at them.
Bjorn Fratangelo v Ivo Karlovic - 1.33
- No Indepth research here. Big Ivo is likely to take sets to tie breakers. His serve does get broken easily, albeit by, I would say, top 20 players.
- 5 defeats in 6 on hard for Bjorn and possible form lines through another big hitter John Isner who beat Bjorn in 2 straight sets in Newport.
- I would be opposing any 1-0 or 2-0 sets lead for Bjorn.
Kaia Kanepi v Francesca Schiavone - 1.59 Kanepi
- Schiavone I would describe as David Ferrer in a skirt. She is a battler and will give 100%.
- Kanepi 513th ranked but favourite tells me she had a lay off /injury which affected rankings.
- Head to heads from 2012 and earlier are irrelevant.
- Personally I would lay Kanepi if Kan wins first set, and I would even lay Kanepi if she wins first set and breaks in the 2nd. Schiavone will not be winning the US Open but she will be a thorn in the side.
Maximilian Marterer v Donald Young - 1.54 Young
- 132nd v 44th.
- I would always advocate following local players in their Grand Slam. I call it the 'Heather' Effect. We have Donald Young from the USA (Go USA!)
- Marterer has had to qualify to get to his last 3 tournaments, and has gone out first round. Same again today?
- Young is clearly limited but note on hard, 4 3 setters (in first to 2) v Paire, Nishikori, Coric and that indicates to me that Marterer will not be winning 3-0 if he goes up 1-0 or 2-0 sets.
- That is my angle. Add in the fact that Young is American (Go USA!), that will galvanise him further.
Henri Laaksonen v Juan Martin Del Potro - 1.06 Del Potro
- If ever there was a justified 1.07 lay it is of Del Boy who has taken Darren Anderton's moniker of 'Sick Note'.
- Hugely talented when fully fit, we have a retirement in Estoril, a retirement in the French Open. So Del Boy never seems 100% fit.
- In his warm up events, he has beaten Isner and Berdych so therein lies the talent!
- Laaksonen himself retired in his last event so may not be able to exploit an under par Del?
Jeremy Chardy v Gael Monfils - 1.13 Monfils
- 2 French men should know each other's games.
- 70th v 17th.
- 1-2 Monfils head to heads.
- In first to 2 sets, Monfils last 5 matches have been 3 setters. This instantly points me to opposing any Chardy 1-0 or 2-0 sets lead. Monfils is a battler.
- Chardy has not had any hard court warm ups.
Fernando Verdasco v Vasek Pospisil - 1.36 Verdasco
- I do like Verdasco. He has an air of reliability about him when expected to win. And when meeting better ranked players, he still is tough to play against.
- 36th v 112th.
- Verdasco won a 2017 head to head where the first set was a 7-5 so tight start.
- 3 consecutive hard court defeats for Verdasco. 4 consecutive defeats for Vasek so neither player catching the eye in their hard court warm ups.
- 5 3 setters in 6 matches (in first to 2 sets) for Verdasco relays to us an ability to take a set at least so let's hope Vasek takes the opening set so we can lay him.
Naomi Osaka v Angelique Kerber - 1.4
- 46th v 2nd.
- No head to heads.
- Poor Osaka has tended to lose to a solid sort in her recent tournaments, including Safarova, Wozniacki, Williams, and Pliskova!
- Osaka did retire last match though when taking Pliskova into a 3rd set so that is hugely encouraging IF she is 100% fit.
- Kerber is yet to capture that air of invincibility. She has been poor (considering she was World Number 1) since the French Open.
- I would certainly lay an uncertain Kerber if she wins the first set.
David Goffin v Julien Benneteau - 1.28 Goffin
- 10th v 106th.
- Goffin is usually on my 'old reliables' list.
- Sole head to head from 2011.
- Goffin's warm up events cut short by losses to Kyrgios and Chung.
- Benneteau retired in his last event so a note of caution regarding him, as far as potential injury is concerned.
- Goff lasted one round at the US Open last year but reached the quarter finals on hard in the Australian Open. So obviously there is some talent there on this surface.
- There is that question mark surrounding the Benneteau retirement which must favour the Goff.
Rafael Nadal v Dusan Lajovic - 1.04 Nadal
- Another sub 1.1 lay but unlikely to come in. Nadal simply does not lose sets against 70th+ ranked players.
- Poor pre US Open warm ups for Rafa.
- Expect 3-0. But lay at 1.05. Sounds contrarian but we only need one of these sub 1.1 shots to come in from a lay perspective to make it worthwhile. Also remember the trading angle.
Andrey Kuznetsov v Feliciano Lopez - 1.62 Lopez
- 87th v 40th.
- Lopez 2-0 head to heads.
- Kuz only played one warm up event on hard, losing in the 2nd round to Isner.
- After retiring at Wimbledon (where I backed him in the outright market), Lopez has 5 defeats and 2 wins.
- I would ordinarily rely upon Lopez who was masterful on grass.
- Lopez was a quarter finalist here last year so that must count for something?
Slight niggle regarding potential hidden injury Lopez. On best form, he is the one to be with.
John Millman v Nick Kyrgios - 1.11 Nick
- I tend to avoid the Kyrgios circus. Old silly haircut is a dodgepot, and has been known to throw matches in the past.
- 1.12 is a natural lay for me. Hugely talented, I'll grant you but he is a bit of a Howling Mad Murdoch.
- Both are Aussies so a hope there is a bit of Insider knowledge from Millman.
Vaclav Safranek v Grigor Dimitrov - 1.03 Dimitrov
- 207th v 12th and we have another lay at 1.04 here. Minimal liability, huge potential upside but alas unlikely to come off.
- Dimitrov comes into the US Open on the back of a tournament win in Cincinnati.
- Vaclav is a Challenger tour player.
Evgeniya Rodina v Eugenie Bouchard - 1.4 Bouchard
- 75th v 59th so tight rankings.
- No head to heads.
- Rodina failed to get out of qualifiers her last 2 hard court events.
- Rodina is largely a 100K event player.
- 7 losses in 9 matches for Bouchard. She is in poor form.
- I personally cannot trust Bouchard and could lay her if she won the first set. The problem we have is that her opponent plays at a lower level and may not necessarily be able to exploit an out-of-form player.
T Daniel v Tommy Paul - 1.47 Paul
- 114th v 396th. On rankings alone can we really trust these 2?
- 7 defeats in 8 for Daniel. Paul is a quarter finalist at Atalanta and Washington on hard so I change my initial reaction. Paul looks a justified favourite. I think his ranking may mask time off?
- I am with Paul today - solid recent hard court form.
Blaz Kavcic v M Youzhny - 1.63 Youzhny
- 128th v 89th.
- 3-0 Youzhny in head to heads.
- 7 3 setters in 8 matches for Youzhny (in first to 2 sets) tells me Youzhny should not be losing 3-0 today.
- A ready angle in and ideally we need Blaz to win the first set.
Ryan Harrison v Tomas Berdych - 1.29 Berdych
- Harrison is an American (Go USA) in the US Open so must be respected.
- 50th v 13th so Harrison non too shabby rankings wise.
- Recent 3-0 win Berdych in head to heads. 3 setter in Austrialian Open, 4 setter at Wimbledon.In both instances at least one set was a tie breaker.
- I would suspect, if 2-0 Berdych, that Harrison may produce a tie breaker 3rd set in a bid to stay in.
- Berdych should win, but it could be a tight one.
Florian Mayer v Marin Cilic - 1.11 Cilic
- 47th v 8th.
- Most recent head to heads have been won by Cilic and in tight matches which suggests although he may eventually win, 1.11 may not necessarily be his shortest price. 7-6 and 7-5 sets the last time these 2 met. All we need really is for a tie breaker to hint at a Mayer set win and we will see a rise in the odds.
- 1.11 is layable at the off I think.
Adrian Mannarino v Ricardas Berankis - 1.19 Mannarino
- 51st v 212nd.
- Berankis is the most recent head to head winner with a tie breaker first set. That was on indoor hard surface.
- Mannarino has had a reasonable warm up campaign.Stopped by Berdych in Los Cabos, Shapalov in the quarters in Canada and by Thiem in Cincinnati in 2 tie breaker sets. Good form considering.
- Berankis has plied his trade in Challenger tour events recently so form is hard to gauge but a recent step up to ATP at Winston Salem saw him beaten in 2 sets by Baggy. Not good form.
- I cannot see a recipe for a shock here.
Roberto Bautista Agut v Andreas Seppi - 1.14 Agut
- 18th v 74th.
- No recent head to heads.
- Quarter Finals in the warm ups at Canada, first round exit at Cincinnati and then tournament winner at Winston Salem sees Agut peaking at the right time for the US Open on hard court?
- Some collateral form through Struff who Seppi beat in 3 sets at Winston Salem and who Agut beat in 2 sets.
- I think Agut has hit form at the right time and should win as per the odds.
Alison Riske v Coco Vandeweghe - 1.3 Coco
- 39th v 23rd.
- Both USA players. I knew Coco was.
- Riske has won 3 of the last 4 head to heads, 3 on hard.
- Both players' form in their hard court warm ups saw 3 consecutive defeats.
- Coco was a finalist at Stanford on hard which is good form.
- Do prepare for Riske to play above herself. I would look to lay the first set winner given these are 2 US players and Riske is 3-0 recently on hard courts head to head form.
Marketa Vondrousova v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.4 Svetlana
- 114th v 9th. I would have expected Svetlana's odds to be a bit shorter.
- No head to heads.
- No hard court warm up for Marketa who won an 80K clay court tournament the last time she was out.
- 3 quarter finals in her last 4 tournaments sees Svetlana in good nick. She took a set off Muguruza in defeat in Cincinnati on hard.
- I would be with Svetlana today. She does look reliable.