Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Same as yesterday, Champions League and English Championship. I will do a review/preview video and see you on Telegram throughout. Do the market makers have it right in the Champions League? They grossly under estimated Sheriff.

UEFA Champions League

17:45 - Atalanta v Young Boys - 1.44 Atalanta

  • Atalanta have scored 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches, but conceded in same.
  • A 2-2 v Villareal in the Champions League saw Atalanta lead, concede the next 2, then equalise late.
  • Young Boys have had wobbles domestically, pre Champions League but that was not the case this time in a 2-1 home win v St Gallen.
  • Both teams have scored in all Champions League matches so far, with 4 consecutive wins totalling 4-5-5-3 goals. A famous win v Man Utd was aided by a Red card for the Reds.
  • Atalanta will have to be at their 2 goal best here. The market is emphatic but Atalanta generally, domestically, haven't really beaten any strong teams. Both teams to score may have a shout here.

17:45 - Zenit v Malmo - 1.55 Zenit

  • Zenit's only loss in all competitions was a 1-0 loss to Chelsea in the Champions League. That makes it 4 consecutive defeats in the competition.
  • Malmo did struggle domestically prior to the Champions League but are on a run of 2/2 wins.
  • Early rounds they were impressive, particularly v Rangers, but 2/2 losses v Ludogorets and Juventus is behind to highlight the relative weakness of the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • This is a match between 2 sides who find winning in later stages of the Champions League difficult. The market suggests that the Russians are the best of a bad bunch.

20:00 - Bayern Munich v Dynamo Kiev - 1.08

  • Bayern were similar odds to this in domestic competition at the weekend and scored the expected 3+ goals v Greuther Furth. This is the expectation from tonight's odds.
  • 22 goals in their last 5 matches in all competitions suggests as much too.
  • 0-3 v Barcelona suggests it again.
  • 0-0 v Benfica for Dinamo Kiev in their opener in the Champions League. They'll need a clean sheet tonight to come out of this unscathed but it is highly unlikely. Kiev, like Malmo and Zenit already mentioned, tend to lose the deeper into Champions League competition they get.

20:00 - Benfica v Barcelona - 2.45 Barcelona

  • A Messi-less Barcelona have been a mess at times this season but at the weekend, they were emphatic against Levante. When they purr, they purr, as shown on the opening day when they showed their trade mark slick, quick passing and deadly finishing. But 2.45 the favourite tells you that the market is not taken by Barcelona tonight. In previous campaigns they would be strong odds on favourite v Benfica.
  • Benfica are scoring freely domestically but 2 consecutive 0-0's in the Champions League. Those came away from home. Will this change with home advantage? Certainly, 0-0 sequences are layable the longer they are collected.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Win for Barcelona. Lord Knows how Ronald McDonald Koeman is still in a job. Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss in the CHampions League for Barca recently. Oh dear! No wonder this is 2.45 the favourite. The market cannot guarantee which Barcelona will turn up and indeed whether Benfica will end their 2 match 0-0 sequence.

20:00 - Juventus v Chelsea - 1.95 Chelsea

  • Put into context, will Chelsea really tolerate a 2nd consecutive defeat in all competitions?
  • Pablo Dybala was injured domestically at the weekend. He is a key player so check team news for the Old Lady today. I would like to see Chiellini playing in defence. He is a class apart and his absence may be a reason that Juventus have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches
  • An easy enough assignment v Malmo for Juve.
  • Chelsea have failed to win in 2 matches in all competitions. They are on a run of 3 consecutive clean sheet wins in the Champions League, including a run of 2 consecutive 1-0 wins. Is this their modus operandi?

20:00 - Man Utd v Villarreal - 1.50 Man Utd

  • No murmurs of Ole's job at Man Utd being in jeopardy despite 3 losses in 4 matches, and 2 consecutive home 0-1 losses. As long as Villareal do not wear Claret and Blue, Man Utd will be hoping to avoid a 3rd consecutive 0-1 home defeat.
  • 4 defeats in 5 matches in the Champions League is also shocking form. Man Utd are scoring and conceding in all of those. They are coming off the back of an embarrassing 2-1 loss away at the Young Boys. It was red card affected but still no excuses v a Swiss Super League side. It's hardly a quality league.
  • 2 0-0's in 3 matches for Villareal in all competitions is not what Man Utd need. Another ultra defensive set up.
  • Villareal were last in the Champions League in 2016 and their inexperience might be their downfall here.
  • 2-2 v Atalanta in their opener.
  • 1.5 odds is far too short for me for Man Utd but it may be a contextual price i.e. must win territory for Man Utd.

20:00 - Salzburg v Lille - 2.00 Salzburg

  • 3 matches into the campaign for Salzburg and they have scored and conceded in all 3. 2 wins v Brondby and a 1-1 away at Sevilla which is a good result.
  • Both goals were penalties and Sevilla's centre forward was sent off, so Salzburg very very lucky there.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 wins domestically for Lille ends a poor sequence of results.
  • 0-0 v Leipzig in the Champions League might be viewed as a good defensively display if we remember that Leipzig scored 6 goals domestically at the weekend.
  • A tough match to read this one. A couple of also-rans in this competition. Salzburg match clouded by red cards and penalties makes that form tough to quantify.

20:00 - Wolfsburg v Sevilla - 2.60 Sevilla

  • It's been a poor seasonn for the Wolf, whose only recent win is v a newly promoted side domestically.
  • A few too many draws for Sevilla but that sequence ended with 2 consecutive wins at home.
  • 0-0 v Lille in their opener, the Wolf, a 1-1 v Salzburg for Sevilla. As I say above, do not take that form on trust, Sevilla's main prolific striker was sent off for a large proportion of that match. Does he play tonight? Check team news. Sevilla will be weakened if he is absent.

English Championship

19:45 - Barnsley v Nottingham Forest - 2.45 Barnsley

  • Only 1 win for both sides this season. Win, Loss, Draw, Draw at home for Barnsley, scoring 1-0-1-0 goals and conceding 0-1-1-0 goals so they have a chance of staying this miserly.
  • 4 draws in 6 matches for Barnsley. Not losing. Not winning. 6 losses and a draw first 7 matches for Forest but light at the end of the tunnel? 0-2 away win v Huddersfield and a 1-1 draw v Millwall latest.
  • The market is not confident here given the relative poor form of both sides  But is this Forest unbeaten run a sign that they are turning a corner?
  • Barnsley do keep it tight at home. Under 2.5 goals possible?

19:45 - Derby v Reading - 2.25 Derby

  • Derby's 3 defeats this season came away. Draw, Draw, Draw, WIn at home, scoring and conceding in 3 of those matches.
  • That was the first time that Derby had scored 2 goals this season under Wayne Rooney (Football, and overall, genius).
  • Derby are still bottom of the league.
  • Reading started the season with 4 defeats and a win, 3 of those defeats coming away from home. But since then, have put together a run of a draw and 3 consecutive wins. Most impressively, they beat Fulham 1-2 last away match. Huge gap in form. Reading away have yet to meet any side 8th or lower.
  • Angles? Isn't it interesting that the market has Derby as favourite here despite a failure to score 2 goals in all bar that recent home win, particularly considering that Fulham are coming off the back of a solid away win v a solid Title contender in Fulham. I would be slightly favouring Reading here.

19:45 - Fulham v Swansea - 1.40 Fulham

  • Fulham always tend to be favourite. They have slipped up recently with 2 losses and a draw in their last 4 matches. They were free scoring in their wins but have they been 'sussed out'? Blackpool kept them to about 1 shot on target in the whole 90 minutes.
  • Fulham are coming off the back of a 1-2 home loss v Reading.
  • The Swans season is a bit bitty. 3 draws and a win latest saw 3 of the score lines 0-0, 0-0, 1-0. Loss, Win, Loss, Draw away saw them concede 2-0-3-3 goals. Is this why the market is so warm to a stuttering Fulham, remember that Fulham score 2+ goals in wins?
  • So...if Fulham rediscover their scoring touch, they will punish Swansea unless Swansea rediscover their 3 clean sheets in recent matches.

19:45 - Luton v Coventry - 2.7 home and away

  • The market hasn't a clue. It must be because these 2 are well-matched?
  • No it's not!! Only 2 wins for Luton came in their first 3 matches of the season. 4 draws and a loss latest. Win, Loss, Draw, Draw at home.
  • COntrast this with Coventry who have only 2 defeats. They did come away in a run of Loss, Win, Loss, Draw away, scoring 0-1-0-1 goals. Now perhaps we are getting a glimpse into why Coventry, with their 6 wins this season, are not strong favourites?

19:45 - Millwall v Bristol City - 2.10 Millwall

  • Only 2 defeats but only 1 win means Millwall are drawing far too many matches. 4 1-1 draws in 5 matches. 4 consecutive draws, 3 1-1 draws in 4 matches.
  • 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 1-1 at home for Millwall. They have, like Derby, only scored that second goal once and it did result in a win. You can see how it is killing them points wise NOT to score a 2nd goal.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches for Bristol City too. 2 defeats for them. But they love being on the road. 2-1 loss, 2-3 win. 1-2 win. 1-2 win. They ARE scoring 2 goals despite conceding!
  • We could foresee a 1-1 and 1-2 perhaps today. One side is conjuring up that 2nd goal at 1-1, the other is not! If Millwall cannot score that 2nd, and you think they can't, lay them if they score first.

19:45 - Peterborough v Bournemouth - 1.73 Bournemouth

  • Only 2 wins for Boro. 5 losses in 6 matches too. Win, Draw, Loss, Win at home. Home form certainly is better. That loss was a last gasp winner for West Brom. The home form might serve them well.
  • It will have to. Bournemouth are top. They are unbeaten. 4 consecutive wins. Win, Win, Draw, Win, away, albeit last 2 away were 0-0 and 0-1 so had to rely on defence.
  • I expect an improved performance from Peterborough at home but they may find that they come out of it without a win today.