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I have not researched the Italian, French, or Dutch Cups. With the likes of Juventus facing a Champions League match soon, we may see a resting of the key players. The Italian Cup matches are second legs. These are best attacked via in-play stats.
I will be tweeting (if up and about) from 18:30 this evening. It was a successful venture last night despite that 'tough old coupon'. Key profits came in matches that were not even researched (Palermo from 0-1 to 4-1!). It shows the effectiveness of research in-play and the use of in-play stats). I hope to see you at 18:30 for Spanish La Liga and then move into the Cup and league football.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Celtic v Dundee - 1.17 Celtic

  • 5 consecutive Celtic wins in head to heads.

Celtic (1st)

  • Only 2 defeats came away.
  • Ended their sequence of failing to score in 2 with a 0-2 win last match.
  • Failed to score only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 14 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, 6 1-0's.
  • Led at halftime in 10/14 home matches.
  • 1-0 v Dundee at home earlier this season.

Dundee (9th)

  • Win, Win, Loss, Win last 4 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in their last 4 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 5 away losses v top 5.

Conclusions

  • Celtic are expected to score 2+ goals today and win. Dundee are on a great away run but contextually, they have lost all aways v top 5.
  • The stats say lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but I am aware of the 1-0 win earlier this season v Dundee for Celtic. Will it be as tight this match? Remember Celtic failed to score in 2 recent matches.

19:45 - Hibernian v Hamilton - 1.4 Hibernian

  • 1-3 Hamilton and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Hibernian (4th)

  • 3 wins and a 2-2 last 4 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 v Celtic.
  • Scored last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Lost 1-3 to Hamilton at home earlier this season.
  • Scored and conceded all home matches v 6th and lower.

Hamilton (10th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 12 matches.
  • 13 of 17 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 4 away wins v 2nd, 4th, 6th, 9th.

Conclusions

  • Hibs are highly likely to score today so note that if 0-0.
  • Hamilton have had some good away results, 2 against top 4 teams but the market is firmly with Hibs. Given Hibs tend to score and concede, lay Hamilton if Hamilton scores first.

19:45 - Motherwell v Aberdeen - 2.1 Aberdeen

  • 0-1 Aberdeen and 0-2 Motherwell in the last 2 head to heads.

Motherwell (7th)

  • Only 2 losses in 7 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Not beaten top 4 at home.

Aberdeen (3rd)

  • 2 consecutive defeats v Hibs and Celtic.
  • No draw in 8 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away.
  • All defeats this season have come v the top 6.

Conclusions

  • On form, Aberdeen should not lose today. Their recent defeats away came v top 5 teams.
  • We may see a 0-0 at halftime based on Motherwell but not at full time.

SPANISH LA LIGA

18:30 - Getafe v Deportivo - 1.95 Getafe

  • 0-2 Getafe and 2-1 Deportivo in the last 2 head to heads.

Getafe (11th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches but 4 draws.
  • 1-0-0-0-1 goals conceded recently.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower with wins v 14th and lower at home.
  • 67% of home goals scored came 2nd half.

Deportivo (19th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 10 and in 7 away.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 away win v 18th.
  • 17 goals conceded away in the 60th+ minute.

Conclusions

  • I favour Getafe today. Solid v 8th and lower and they tend to win too. Depor have only 1 win away.
  • Do note Depor's concession 60th minute+ particularly if 0-0 or 0-1 to Depor come the hour.

18:30 - Athletic Bilbao v Valencia - 2.76 Bilbao

  • The market tells a story. Very hard to choose between the 2 teams. Will the research enlighten us?
  • 2-0 and 3-2 Valencia in the last 2 head to heads.

Athletic Bilbao (12th)

  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches came away.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only losses at home v top 2.
  • Not beaten top 5.

Valencia (4th)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 12 and in 10 away.
  • Conceded in their last 13 and last 6 away.
  • No away 0-0.
  • 11 wins, a draw and a loss in 13 matches v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Bilbao cannot beat top 5 and Valencia have 11 wins in 13 matches v 12th and lower. Side with valencia not to lose?
  • But then the market tells us this is too tough to call and we have to acknowledge that.
  • Both teams tend to score in Valencia matches. Lay Bilbao if Bilbao scores first and hope form trumps the day?

18:30 - Malaga v Sevilla - 2.25 Sevilla

  • Malaga 4-2 and Sevilla 2-0 last 2 head to heads.

Malaga (20th)

  • 8 defeats and 2 draws last 10 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 4 losses and a 0-0 last 5 at home.
  • All defeats home and away v top 7.
  • 67% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sevilla (6th)

  • Only 2 losses in 6 matches.
  • 5-1 spanking by Eibar away recently. Where did that come from?
  • No draw in 13 away.
  • All wins v bottom 3, 1 away and 3 at home.

Conclusions

  • No Champions League distraction for Sevilla, at least not this week.
  • Sevilla have been poor of late but have beaten the bottom 3 whenever they have met.
  • Malaga do not seem to have the form to threaten Sevilla today. Do note Malaga tend to concede 2/3rd of home goals 2nd half.

20:30 - Atletico Madrid v Leganes - 1.25 Atl Madrid

  • 0-0, 2-0, 0-1, 0-0 in Madrid's favour in the last 4 head to heads.
  • Europa League for Madrid on 8th March should not affect performance today.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • A critical match given that Atl Madrid are within touching distance of Barcelona at the top of the league.
  • 11 wins, a draw and a loss last 14 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No defeat in 12 at home.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins v 12th and lower.
  • 12 goals scored at home last 30 mins of matches.

Leganes (13th)

  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • No win in 9 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 100% defeats away v top 10.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The form clearly suggests a home win. Leganes struggle v top 10.
  • No surprise with a 0-0 at halftime. Atl Madrid have had a strong 2nd half scoring at home.

20:30 - Eibar v Villareal - 2.3 Eibar

  • 2-3 Eibar and 3-0 Villareal in the last 2 head to heads.

Eibar (10th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Since 20th November, only Atl Madrid, Barcelona and Celta Vigo have beaten Eibar.
  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Beat 4th-8th inclusive at home.
  • 11 of 15 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Villareal (5th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score only once since 1st October 2017.
  • Scored in their last 10 and last 9 away.
  • 5 0-1 leads and 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Not for me. I can make an argument for Eibar (only 3 defeats since 20th November, 2 v the top 3) and beating 4th-8th inclusive at home. I can make an argument for Villareal (failed to score only once since 1st October) 4 wins, a draw and a loss v top 9 away.
  • A match for the inplay stats.
  • A hint, on form, that Villareal will score so note that.

ENGLISH F.A.CUP

19:45 - Tottenham v Rochdale - 1.1 Tottenham

  • Another great trade for Tottenham in the F A Cup came in the first match.
  • Likely we will see a first team for Tottenham today, but that is not a certaintly. Alli and Kane tend to be rested in the FA Cup.
  • We expect a win, much like when Fleetwood came to Wembley.
  • 1.1 odds suggests 3/4 goals for Tottenham.