DRT Daily Research Bulletin, September 27, 2023

Apologies for an early night last night. I have a head cold and needed a rest. The review/preview video will take you through what was an eye-catching coupon. Today is similar. I will try and cover tonight's matches.
Spanish La Liga Primera
18:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Getafe - 1.57 Athletic Bilbao
- After a loss v Real Madrid, Bilbao have 4 wins and a draw. They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches and failed to score only twice.
- 7 goals scored last 2 at home.
- 3/3 away defeats for Getafe conceding 3-2-4 goals. 2-1 loss v Real Madrid and 4-3 loss v Sociedad.
- Athletic Bilbao should be hard to score against and with goals in them, that's the perfect recipe for a home win.
18:00 - Real Madrid v Las Palmas - 1.22 Real Madrid
- 5 consecutive wins for Real ended in the Madrid derby and that's not really a surprise. Derbies can be unpredictable.
- In all Las Palmas matches, no team has scored that 2nd goal. They got an unexpected 1-0 win down to 10 men last match.
- Las Palmas may be restricted to one goal maximum and that will not be enough against a Real Madrid side with 2 2-1 home wins in a row.
- Las Palmas have had 5 consecutive 0-0's at halftime, only one of those ended 0-0. It has taken teams 70th+ minute to score against Las Palmas. They may offer resistance today but eventually Real Madrid and Jude Bellingham should break through.
18:00 - Villarreal v Girona - 2.20 Villareal
- Girona have been excellent. A draw and 5 wins, scoring 9 goals last 2 matches.
- Loss, Loss, Win at home for Villareal. Both teams have scored in all bar 1 match. Both teams have scored in the 3 home matches for Villareal.
- The market is not taken by this excellent Girona form. So take note of that. We should see a competitive match with both teams scoring.
20:30 - Cadiz v Rayo Vallecano - 2.50 Cadiz
- The market cannot split these 2. Win, Draw, Win at home for Cadiz. Losses came away v Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao. Only 1 clean sheet for Cadiz came 1st match.
- Win, Win, Loss away for Rayo.
- 2.50 the favourite suggests a tough-to-call match.
20:30 - Valencia v Real Sociedad - 2.60 Valencia
- As does 2.60 the favourite.
Italian Serie A
17:30 - Cagliari v AC Milan - 1.53 AC Milan
- No win yet for Cagliari. Draws were 0-0, losses v Inter Milan, Bologna and Atalanta.
- 4 wins and a loss v Inter Milan for AC Milan. They have scored in all matches and not had a 0-0 at halftime.
- Cagliari have failed to score in 2 home matches. Milan could eye 2 goals at least.
17:30 - Empoli v Salernitana - 2.20 Empoli
- Empoli have lost all matches and failed to score yet the market gives them a chance here today.
- Draw, Draw, Loss, Loss, Draw for Salernitana.
- The market expects an improved performance from Empoli, putting a side in such poor form as favourite. Take note!
17:30 - Verona v Atalanta - 1.75 Atalanta
- Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Loss for Verona. Win, Draw at home. 2 losses came away from home.
- Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win for Atalanta, losses came away v Frosinone and Fiorentina. Both teams scored in those 2 away losses. 2-2-3-1 goals before halftime.
19:45 - Inter Milan v Sassuolo - 1.33 Inter Milan
- All wins for Inter Milan. 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 2+ goals scored in 4/5 matches.
- Sassuolo's 2 wins came at home. 3-1 and 4-2 (Juventus - good result).
- 2 away losses conceding 2 goals at least.
- NO reason to desert Inter Milan. That said, if Sassuolo can bring some of their performance v Juventus with them here today, they could be an attacking danger. But remember, Inter's defence is tough to score against.
19:45 - Lazio v Torino - 2.10 Lazio
- Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw for Lazio. Both teams scored in 4/5 matches seeing just the one win v Napoli. I think Lazio may be affected by Champions League football.
- 0-1 and 1-1 at home for Lazio, not conceding that 2nd goal.
- Draw, Loss (AC Milan), Win, Win, Draw for Torino. Only AC Milan scored 2 goals against them.
- Angles? The sample is too small. Lazio might shake off Champions League distraction and improve today. The market though cannot ignore Torino given their decent enough form.
19:45 - Napoli v Udinese - 1.33 Napoli
- Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Draw for Champions Napoli. Loss v Lazio.
- Udinese have failed to score in 4/5 matches, with a recent run of 0-0's.
- This is what I call a 'redemption' match. An opportunity for an under-performing Big Gun to get back on the winning track against an opponent struggling to even score.
Dutch Eredivisie
19:00 - Twente v Vitesse - 1.36 Twente
- 4 wins and a 1-0 loss v RKC Waalwijk. 2/2 3-1 home wins for Twente. 2+ goals scored in the wins.
- A win and 4 consecutive defeats for Vitesse. They failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- Twente are likely to bounce back today. The loss v Waalwijk was a disappointment but a break-even trading using 'insurance'.
20:00 - Ajax v FC Volendam - 1.12 Ajax
- soccerstats.com has this as Ajax v Feyenoord which confuses me. If they play Volendam today, this is another match of context where an Ajax with 2 draws and a loss last 3 matches seek to get back to winning ways. Those poor last 3 results came away.
Finnish Veikkausliiga
16:00 - HJK Helsinki v Honka - 1.65 HJK
- Championship Group.
- Good so far for HJK. 2-0 home win v Inter Turku, 2-3 away win v SJK. They look good in this Championship Group which book-ends the season.
- 0-3 home loss v VPS and 1-2 away win v SJK for Honka. A good opportunity for HJK to continue their winning run?
16:00 - Ilves v Mariehamn - 1.70 Ilves
- 2-2 away v Haka and 0-3 win away v KTP for Ilves.
- 3-2 loss away v Oulu and 2-1 home win v Haka for Mariehamn.
- Mariehamn were bottom of the league in the season-proper and are automatically opposable.