Another Bjork sponsored coupon - it's oh so quiet. The 2 main matches are a one off Europa League Final where tactics will play a great part, and the first leg of the German Bundesliga play-offs...where tactics will play a great part! 2 matches to react to as they are so hard to read, unless you note the fact that Bundesliga 2 sides have a very poor record for qualifying from these play-offs. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and, yet again, I am not sure a telegram is justified for 2 matches only. Standout matches for me must include Silkeborg and Viborg. As to the Europa League Final, well I say it in the video. Just because it's a high profile match, it does not mean you have to trade it. This is a trap a lot fall into. If you don't have any angles, don't play, but if the in-play stats hint at readability, get stuck in. I will be telegramming throughout the day but cannot justify staying up til 2am my time for only one match (the Europa League).
UEFA Europa League
20:00 - Villarreal v Man Utd - 1.85 Man Utd
- The Europa League Final and how on Earth do we read this? Man Utd rested key players in the last Premier League match.
- Villareal lost to Real Madrid after taking the lead.
- If you want a pre-match opinion on this match, I cannot help. www.flashscore.com produce some excellent preview write-ups which I do like to read for 'one-off' matches.
- For me, Man Utd's attack has a real flair and solidity about it. Villareal losses recently to Alaves and Osasuna domestically certainly don't tick any boxes.
- A match for the real reactor!
17:30 - Koln v Holstein Kiel - 1.70 Koln
- There was more drama than an episode of BBC soap Bell-enders at the end of the German Bundesliga and German Bundesliga 2 seasons. Those following my live chat webinar would attest to this. Koln got the win they needed against Schalke to swap automatic relegation for a relegation play-off, thereby consigning Werder Bremen to relegation.
- Holstein Kiel lost 2-3 to Darmstadt and in doing so consigned themselves to a relegation play-off place instead of automatic promotion. They were leading in that match but 3 consecutive 3-2 scorelines, a win and 2 defeats, pretty much did for them.
- In last season's play-off, Werder Bremen won both legs with relative ease. Will a season of Bundesliga football see Koln right here? Certain Kiel need to address the recent conceding of 2-3-3 goals just at the wrong time of the season.
- I mention this because Koln had scored 2 goals v Dortmund, and Leipzig, 3 goals v Augsburg and 2 goals v Mainz, all solid yard sticks. Their last 3 matches of the season were relatively poor with 1-0-1 goals scored.
- If Koln can return to 2 goals a game and if Kiel have not remedied defensive frailties, then a good argument can be made for the home side.
- This is the first of 2 legs and if the same as England, will be based on aggregates and not away goals. I stand to be corrected.
Norwegian OBOS-Ligaen - 2 matches only played this season
18:00 - Sandnes Ulf v Ull/Kisa - 1.80 Sandnes
- 2 2-1 losses for Sandnes.
- 1-1 and 0-1 loss for Ull/Kisa who are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime.
18:00 - Sogndal v Fredrikstad - 2.37 Sogndal
- 1-1 and 2-1 loss for Sogndal.
- 2-3 and 2-1 wins for Fredrikstad.
Danish 1st Division - Championship group
18:00 - Esbjerg v Helsingor - 1.95 Esbjerg
- 3 losses and a win recently for Esbjerg.
- Only 1 1-0 win in 5 matches at home with 2 consecutive defeats. Not the form of an odds on favourite.
- Win, Loss, Win, Win, Draw for Helsingor latest, scoring 3-0-5-2-3 goals.
- Note that Helsingor goal threat.
18:00 - Silkeborg v Fredericia - 1.28 Silkeborg
- Very solid trading side Silkeborg. Silkeborg are unbeaten in 5 matches, 1-2-3-4-3 goals scored recently.
- As you hear me saying in webinars, rely on Silkeborg for goals, as advertised recently.
- Loss, Win, Win, Loss, Loss for Fredericia. 2 consecutive wins and 2 consecutive defeats recently.
- Expect goals today. Trust Silkeborg. We might not get a trading angle if they are as reliable as ever but if Fred scores first, Fred are layable. If Silkeborg have not scored first half, they could well score 2/3 goals 2nd half.
18:00 - Viborg v HB Koge - 1.15 Viborg
- Koge are struggling with 5/5 defeats, in stark contrast to Viborg with 3-3-4-3 goals scored in 3 wins and a draw, the wins all to nil.
- The odds look spot on, based on this small sample of matches. 1.15, remember, suggests a goal at least before hafltime, a possible win to nil, and 3/4 goals scored bare minimum Viborg.