Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A very quiet night footy wise unless you see an angle. Liverpool edged through against Roma. I will be laying Liverpool in the 'to qualify' market for the 2nd leg. I've done some tennis research. Nice to get back into it and get familiar with players and their form as we have from now to September with quality tournament after quality tournament.

19:45 - Bayern Munich v Real Madrid - 2.04 Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich

  • Recent form home and away - only 2 losses since the 1st October 2017.
  • Recent form at home - unbeaten in 22; 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Champions League form home and away - unbeaten in 8 matches; all wins bar a 0-0 last match; scored and conceded in 5 of their last 7.
  • Champions League form at home - only Real Madrid have beaten Bayern at home since March 2014 TWICE!

Real Madrid

  • Recent form home and away - only 1 win in 4; scored and conceded in those 4.
  • Recent form away - only 1 loss in 17 matches; 7 wins in 8 matches.
  • Champions League form home and away - scored and conceded in 9 of their last 12 matches; 5 consecutive wins ended with a loss to Juventus.
  • Champions League form away - 8 wins and 2 losses in 10; losses v Tottenham and Atl Madrid; scored and conceded in 8/10.

Conclusions

  • Real Madrid may be spluttering domestically but are winning in the Champions League. Lucky to be here to be honest care of a controversial penalty v Juventus.
  • A strong scoring and conceding pattern for both teams. Do note Real Madrid are the only side to have beaten Bayern at home since March 2014 - twice.
  • Value in laying Bayern if they lead?

17:45 - Caen v Toulouse - 2.66 Caen

  • 0-1 Caen and 2-0 Toulouse in the last 2 head to heads.

Caen (15th)

  • 7 points above the relegation zone with a maximum of 15 points available this season. Giant strides to safety with a win today.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 3-2-2-1 goals scored at home recently.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (38%).
  • 2-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-0 v teams below them in the league at home.
  • 7 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Toulouse (17th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 came last home match.
  • Only 2 away wins were 0-1.
  • 1-0-1-1-0-0-1 scored away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • One of these football matches will have fans around the world tuning in, and it ain't this one!
  • A relegation six pointer, a 2.66 favourite and 'I'll get me coat'. No thanks.
  • A potential angle if you want it/ With Toulouse tending to score only 1 goal away v 12th and lower, lay them if they score first? Yes they win 0-1 when they win away but they have only 1 win in 9 match.

TENNIS

The standout yesterday was David Goffin, world number 7, a set and 5-1 down. Oh, and he won of course hitting a high of 200 in play! I'll do some more research today. It's a good exercise to get back into it.

ATP Hungarian - CLAY

Marco Cecchinato v Damir Dzumhur - 1.72 Marco

  • 110th v 30th.
  • Cecc has the 2 most recent head to head wins on clay, both 2 setters.
  • Cecc recently beat Damir on clay in Monte Carlo and in challenger events tends to get to semi finals or getter on clay so is adept on the surface.
  • 4 straight defeats for Damir. Damir is a challenger tour finalist on clay so has some ability on the surface.
  • On very recent form it would surprise me to see a 2-0 Damir set win so I would lay Damir if he wins the first set.

Jan-Lennard Struff v Alexander Bublik - 1.27 Struff

  • 53rd v 117th.
  • 4 3 setters in 6 matches for Struff so if he loses first set he is likely to win the next set.
  • Solid enough Monte Carlo on this surface,beating Fognini and taking a set of Alex Zverev.
  • Bublik recently retired from an Indian Wells event. That is always a negative for me as it could suggest a hidden injury.
  • Odds look right here so any high odds for Struff in play could be value.

Richard Gasquet v Lorenzo Sonego - 1.22 Gasquet

  • 31st v 213th.
  • On rankings alone it's Gasquet all the way.
  • Straight sets win Australian open earlier this year suggests similar today for the Gas Man.
  • On clay Gas reached the semis in Casablanca and quarter finals in Monte Carlo.
  • A 3 setter first round for Sonego saw 2 7-6 sets v 237th in the world.
  • It must be a 2-0. As with Struff, any high odds for the Gas Man will be seen as value in play.

Matteo Berrettini v Aljaz Bedene - 1.47 Bedene

  • 136th v 49th.
  • Matteo twice a hard court challenger tour finalist this year so at his level is good.
  • Dumped out of Casablanca first round, 3 setter first round here v 169th in the world.
  • On clay, Bedene a finalist at Buenos Aires, quarter finalist at Rio, and could not get past Nadal At Monte Carlo. 3 setter first round here suggests he will fight back if losing the first set.

ATP Barcelona

Gilles Simon v Grigor Dimitrov - 1.37 Dimi

  • I will make this short. Like Goffin I have already backed Grigor Dimitrov at 12 and 18 decimal odds this year. He does seem adept at a comeback.Let's hope Gilles gives him a game.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez v Kei Nishikori - 1.2

  • 70th v 22nd.
  • I suspect Nishikori's fall in rankings is due to injuries.
  • 3-0 Kei, latest 2016.
  • A great start to the clay court season with a final for Kei in Monte Carlo, losing rather inevitably to Nadal.
  • 2 tie breaker sets for Lopez in his opener in his home country.
  • The fact Nishikori attended a Challenger event this year tells you it is a work in progress. Rather like Darren Anderton, Kei is 'sick note'. So we must have faith that the Monte Carlo performance sees him at his best in what should be a 2-0 set win. Anything else get interested.

Martin Klizan v Novak Djokovic - 1.23 Novak

  • 143rd v 12th.
  • Last head to head saw a Klizan retirement in a 4-0 Novak h2h record.
  • The fire is out with Novak as far as winning mentality is concerned hence 12th.
  • Novak has struggled v 48th and 5th recently on clay, won one and lost to 5th. The rankings differential should see class tell. He battered world 75 recently.

Jozef Kovalik v Guido Pella - 1.36 Pella

  • 165th v 64th.
  • Lucky loser sees Jozef here.
  • 2015 head to head in Jozef favour.
  • Quarters in Houston for Pella recently on clay.
  • Not sure of any strong angles here - go with the market? Back Pella at higher odds in play?

Jaume Munar v Dominic Thiem - 1.12 Thiem

  • We saw world number 7 come from the brink yesterday. Faith in World Number 5 doing the same today?
  • A retirement at Indian Wells for Thiem was followed by 2 3 setters, albeit v Rublev and Novak.
  • Munar challenger tour player.

Rafael Nadal v Roberto Carballes Baena - 1.02 Nadal

  • There's actually a court named after him. This should be 2-0 but I encourage you to lay 1.03 shots. The upside is great, downside is poor.

Pablo Carreno Busta v Benoit Paire - 1.58 Busta

  • Will this be 'ooh what a nice Paire' or will Busta Bust a cap in his ass?
  • 10th v 41st. A surprise for me too to see Busta top 10.
  • Busta is a Spaniard in Spain. could count for a lot in a tight match.
  • 4-3 Paire in head to heads. Most recent Paire win 2017 Madrid Masters.3-2 Paire on clay.
  • Paire has had a poor clay start, first round outs at Casablanca and Monte Carlo.
  • 3 consecutive 3 setters for Paire does suggest he can battle.
  • 5 of those sets were tie breakers.
  • Busta coming off an impressive end to hard court season with the semis at Miami.
  • I do feel the value is in laying Busta if he wins first set. Look how many Paire sets recently have gone to tie breakers.
  • If you have faith in World Number 10, I am sure his odds will rise in play if you want to back.

Rogerio Dutra Silva v Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.49 Vinolas

  • 102nd v 23rd. Vinolas is Spanish.
  • 2-0 Vinolas head to heads both on clay - latterly a 3 setter.
  • Not much I can read from the form. Lay first set winner in the hope of another clay 3 setter?

Diego Schwartzman v Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.7 Diego

  • 26th v 91st.
  • Diego 1-0 head to head on indoor hard.
  • Clay quarters for Diego in Buenos Aires and a final in Rio not unexpected for an Argie.
  • Stefanos impressed at Monte Carlo pushing Goffin to 7-6 first set before losing 2-0.
  • This could be a 3 setter today. Stefanos took a set on hard off Thiem recently so if he were to lose, could take it to the wire.

Hyeon Chung v Bjorn Fratangelo - 1.26

  • One of the new generation, Chung should be reliable.
  • 58th v 111th.
  • Last head to heads from 2015.
  • A semi final and 4 consecutive quarter finals for Chung sees him in solid and consistent form.
  • Quarter Finalist here last year.
  • Bjorn has already battled 2 3 setters to be here so it suggests if he nicks the first set, he is layable.
  • I expect a Chung win with memories of last year's run.

Leonardo Mayer v Karen Khachanov - 1.75 Karen

  • 52nd v 45th.
  • Nothing much form wise. Assume a tight match on the rankings and odds and lay the first set winner, particularly if it is Mayer?