Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 24, 2017

HJK not scoring yesterday despite dominating reminds us that the Finnish season is young and patterns are not strong. Bear that in mind today. The Europa League Final is on tonight and I suspect that Man Utd will look for a clean sheet win. That has been their tactic in this competition.
Tennis? I thought it went very well yesterday. I did tweet @drtclub and collected quite a few green screens. I don't think I had a losing trade in the tennis. I will do some more tennis research today at the base of this DRT Bulletin. I personally found the research very useful and surprisingly accurate!

16:30 - VPS v Ilves - 2.44 VPS

  • 0-0 in the last head to head.
  • This is 2nd v 7th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

VPS

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 8 matches this season.
  • Scored and conceded in the 3 at home. Win v 1st, draw v 3rd and loss v 5th.
  • Unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • 2-2-1-2-1-4 goals scored in recent matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Only 1 clean sheet and failed to score only once.
  • 100% over 2.5 goals at home.

Ilves

  • Only 1 draw. No draws in 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive losses.
  • Loss away v 1st, wins away v 3rd and 5th.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I will stick with these neutral bets.

16:30 - KuPS v SJK - 2.4 KuPS

  • 1-0 SJK in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 5th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

KuPS

  • 3 consecutive wins saw both teams score.
  • 2-2-0-4-2-2 scored recently.
  • All wins saw both teams score.
  • Sole loss at home was 0-1 v 7th.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0.

SJK

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2 consecutive away losses.
  • Beat 2nd placed team 1-3 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. Looks like goals in this. Both teams could score.
  • I will bow out. SJK are not readable. Beat 2nd away and lost their 2 other away matches v weaker opponents.

16:30 - RoPS v JJK - 1.7 RoPS

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 12th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

RoPS

  • No draw this season.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Wins at home v 8th and 11th so must have a chance today.
  • No 0-0.

JJK

  • No win.
  • 2 draws and a 1-0 loss away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • All defeats v top 6.
  • Draws away v 8th and 10th 1-1 and 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • JJK must be layed if leading.

19:45 - Ajax v Manchester United - 1.93 Man Utd

  • This is the Europa League Final. It is a one-off match.
  • 1-1-1-1-1-1-1 scored by United this Europa League campaign.
  • 2-2-0-4-1 scored by Ajax recently in their Europa League campaign.
  • The only angle I can think of is where Man Utd will look to keep a clean sheet and nick a 0-1 winner.
  • Ajax do have a reputation for goals but that is within a very cosetted Dutch Eredivisie League.

Tennis

ATP Lyon

Milos Raonic v Denis Istomin - 1.14 Raonic

  • 6th v 73rd in the world.
  • 3-0 Raonic and the first set went to tie breaker on each. But relevance? Last head to head April 2014.
  • 21st, 10th and 8th ranked players have beaten Raonic latest.
  • He reached the quarter finals in Rome and Zverev was the victor.
  • Istomin lost in the Rome qualifiers but he retired Does he have a niggly injury?
  • In Madrid, Istomin only reached the round of 64.

Conclusions

  • I expect 2-0 to Raonic today. In head to heads, the first set has gone to a tie breaker, won by Raonic. I would seek that today. If Istomin leads in a tie breaker Raonic's odds will rise.
  • I will back Raonic if his odds rise to 1.45 or higher.

Gastao Elias v Del Potro - 1.16 Del Potro

  • 108th v 33rd in the rankings.
  • No head to heads.
  • So far in Lyon, Elias has won 3 matches but the matches have gone to 3 sets.
  • 81st, 88th and 1180th ranked players took a set off Elias. I do not therefore expect a 2-0 Elias today against a rising ranking in Del Potro.
  • Note the research yesterday - big players have beaten Del Potro - Novak 3 times for example. Yesterday was a 2 set win. First set was a struggler 7-5.

Conclusions

  • They may duke it out first set but Del Potro is likely to come through in 2 sets. Yesterday I backed Del Potro at odds of 1.36 and traded out at 1.16 and today I will back Del Potro if his odds rise in-play

Carlos Berlocq v Jo-Wilfred Tsonga - 1.47 Tsonga

  • 1-0 in head to heads back in 2013 to Tsonga is not relevant.
  • 62nd v 11th in the rankings. Tsonga the French Man in a french tournament. I would have thought his odds would be shorter.
  • Berlocq v Sandgren yesterday as he should have been entitled to.
  • Berlocq recently reached the round of 32 in the Roma Masters but has been as far as round of 16 Estoril, round of 64 Barcelona and round of 32 Monte Carlo. Recent losses to players ranked 13th, 23rd, 66th and 19th.
  • The last time Tsonga was in France, he won the Marseille tournament. Slight concern he withdrew from Madrid masters - injury?
  • Prior to that withdrawal, 3 matches went to 3 sets.
  • After Marseille, Tsonga has lost in round of 64, round of 32, then withdrawal in round of 32. I get the feeling there may be a niggle afoot with Tsonga. A look at www.tennisexplorer.com shows it was a shoulder injury for Tsonga.

Conclusions

  • Tsonga might be gettable today if that shoulder injury remains or at least niggles. Shoulder affects serve of course. Lay Tsonga if he wins the first set? Lay Tsonga off the bat? 1.47 a bit high for me.

Kyle Edmund v Gilles Simon - 1.94 Gilles Simon

  • 42nd v 30th in the rankings. Could be a tight one?
  • 1-1 in head to heads which occured on grass and Edmund winning in 2016 in 3 sets.
  • Edmund went through qualifiers to get here. Has been beaten by a good set of players in Nadal, Thiem, and Del Potro.
  • 3 sets for both players in their last match in Lyon.
  • 150th and 63rd the rankings Simon beat recently (ignoring Monfils who he will know well as a fellow Frenchman).

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2 which suggests laying the first set winner. I would be more keen to lay Simon if Simon wins the first set.
  • I do expect a 3 setter today. We shall see. I think Simon's form is less appealing than Edmund's.

Tomas Berdych v Hyeon Chung - 1.63 Berdych

  • The odds are suspiciously high here.
  • 13th v 94th in the world. The odds should be shorter for Berdych.
  • Chung is a new name to me and has been in excellent recent form. In Barcelona he reached the quarter finals and took Nadal to a tie breaker first set. He also beat Zverev.
  • In Munich he reached the semi-finals.
  • He went through qualifying here at Lyon and beat Donald Young first round. Young is ranked 44th so a reasonable feat.
  • I thought the odds might suggest a Berdych injury but he has not withdrawn from any events.
  • 6th, 8th, 4th and 24th ranked players have beaten Berdych recently. He is out of the top 10 now so not progressing over time.
  • We do have some collateral form through Denis Istomin who both players beat 6-4 6-4 and Alexander Zverev who Chung beat 6-1 6-4 in Barcelona and Berdych lost 6-4 6-4 to in Madrid.

Conclusions

  • Chung is a new name to me. I do like his recent form and would be keen to lay the first set winner. I think Chung could take a set off Berdych and arguably win. Berdych historically has been reliable when going a set down. It happened twice at Monte Carlo but Cilic did win in 2 sets.

WTA Nurnberg

Barbora Krejcikova v Laura Siegmund - 1.12 Siegmund

  • 218th v 49th in the rankings. Siegmund beat 249th with ease yesterday.
  • Krej won a 2012 head to head.
  • Krej has been playing 25K events so hard to gauge form.
  • The last time Siegmund was in Germany, she won the Stuttgart tournament so should be fully wound up.
  • Recent losses have come v 23rd and 5th so this really should be another 2-0 Laura win.

Conclusions

  • I would be keen to back Siegmund at any odds value above 1.12 - there was no trade yesterday as Laura was not troubled.
  • If Barbora can remember that 2012 win, then we might see her trouble Laura.

Kiki Bertens v Annika Beck - 1.24 Bertens

  • Beefy Curtains won as she liked yesterday, as you would expect of a 1.05 shot.
  • 20th v 63rd in the rankings. Bertens is clearly on the up.
  • Annika Beck won the last head to head in 2017 in 3 sets but it was all Bertens with 6 consecutive wins.
  • 26th, 9th and 5th ranked players have beaten Beefy recently.
  • She reached the semis in Rome.
  • A run of 3 consecutive defeats for Beck ended with that obvious win v Rueffer yesterday.
  • 62nd, 168th and 114th the victors over Beck recently.

Conclusions

  • Beck is the most recent head to head winner on a hard court but it has been a case of all beefy prior to that.
  • I would be surprised if Beck won 2-0 today so must lay Beck if Beck wins the first set.

Geneva Open

Skugor v Querrey - 1.25 Querrey

  • 321st v 27th in the rankings.
  • No head to heads.
  • Skugor tends to be a Challenger player so tough to gauge his form.
  • He went through qualifying to get here and all 3 matches so far have been 3 setters. He should not be winning 2-0.
  • Agut, Kyrgios, Bellucci, Thiem recent victors over Querrey.
  • Querrey won in Acapulco but tends not to go far in the next few simply because he meets a class act early on. An unlucky run.

Conclusions

  • I do not expect a 2-0 Skugor win. That is the only real angle. Querrey should find him easy pickings really. I am with Querrey all the way and would back him with a reasonable rise in his match odds.

Mischa Zverev v John Isner - 1.46 Isner

  • 35th v 24th in the rankings. I didn't know the -other- Zverev was so well ranked.
  • Toe to toe in Austrialia in 2017 saw Zverev come through in a match of 4 tie breaker sets.
  • Zverev had to pass through qualifiers to get here and beat Haase in 3 sets. This suggests we lay 2-0 Zverev set betting if he wins the first set.
  • LLLWLLLLLWLLL prior to winning qualifiers here (L=Loss, W=Win). Arguably Zverev is in poor form.
  • Big John is one dimensional but when it works, it works. He lost in the semis to Alexander Zverev but won the 2nd set in a tie breaker. He had 8 tie breaker sets in that tournament.
  • He lost in the quarters in Houston in 3 tie breaker sets.
  • He lost in Miamo to Alexander Zverev again in 3 tie breaker sets.

Conclusions

  • With a tie breaker player like Isner it is highly likely that his odds will rise above their current level at some point. But then we have to trust a woefully out of form Mischa Zverev to step up and replicate his Australian Open tie breaker bonanza win.
  • Isner could be layed at 1.46 but as I say you have to trust the-other-Zverev.
  • Mischa is certainly layable if he wins the first set. He has been a 3 set man of late.
  • There is though always a chance with Isner that his serve sees him un breakable. He either wins 6-4 or in a tie breaker.
  • Which Mischa turns up today?

Stebe v Tipsarevic - 1.29 Tipsarevic

  • Even though I made a trading profit opposing Stebe after he won the first set yesterday, he still won the match!
  • 322nd v 71st in the rankings.
  • Stebe of course won in 3 sets and a tie breaker last set - I am unconvinced with tie breaker wins as it is quite simply the winning of key points which is the difference.
  • Stebe has had 6 3 set matches in his last 7 so if winning the set today, looks naturally opposable.
  • He has been largely a Challenger tour player so that win v Struff is something of a highlight. Struff was 1.17 odds yesterday.
  • Tipsarevic is 71st and has won 2 consecutive Asian Challenger Tour events . Prior to those he lost to Thiem in Brazil.

Conclusions

  • I am very taken by Tipsarevic's consecutive tournament wins on the Challenger Tour. It tells us he is in rude health and has been meeting and beating players ranked around Stebe and even lower.
  • Stebe must be opposed if winning the first set. I have a sneaky feeling Tipsarevic's momentum might see a 2-0 set win.

Wawrinka v Silva - 1.21 Wawrinka

  • 3rd v 69th in the world.
  • Where are we? Geneva! What nationality is Stanislas the Manislas? Swiss.
  • 24th, 49th, 26th the rankings of players who have beaten Stanislas the Manislas recently. I personally get the impression that he has an attitude problem/motivation problem despite his amazing ranking.
  • He's an inconsistent beggar too. He lost to Benoit Paire in Madrid in 3 sets, then beat him in 3 sets in Rome. Would the real Stanislas please stand up!
  • Silva plies his trade mostly in Challenger events.
  • He recently reached the final in Bordeaux.
  • 53rd, 219th, 41st the recent victors over Silva.

Conclusions

  • Wawrinka is not a player I trust. I have watched him throw matches in Asia. He tends to give up quickly. Recent wins and losses v the same player in consecutive tournaments suggests he can turn it on when he wants.
  • Well, Stanislas the Manislas is in Geneva, and he is Swiss. I think that might be motivation enough to carve out a win.

Kevin Anderson v Kei Nishikori - 1.35 Kei

  • Both players won matches they were expected to win yesterday.
  • 66th v 7th in the rankings.
  • 3-1 Nishikori in head to heads. He won the last head to head in straight sets.
  • Anderson is opposable if winning the first set. 5 3 setters in his last 8 matches, and one win was care of a 7-5, 7-6 hardly breathtaking stuff.
  • Anderson did take a set of Alexander Zverev in Rome so has some ability.
  • 3 consecutive quarter finals for Nishikori ended with a run of 2 round of 16 matches including yesterday's win. Another quarter final today. Can Nishikori break through this time?

Conclusions

  • A slight mental block with Nishikori not progressing past the quarter finals recently. He has another quarter final today.
  • Anderson though, with his numerous 3 set matches, is layable if he wins the first set. This is a match where Nishikori's odds may rise in-play and I will wait for that and back him, particularly if he hits 1.8 or something like that.

WTA Strasbourg

Daria Gavrilova v Kulichkova - 1.28 Daria

  • 27th v 224th in the rankings.
  • Kulichkova won the last head to head (1-1) in 2015.
  • Kulichkova is a 25K and 100K tournament player. She went through qualifying to get here.
  • Both players played 67th and 68th ranked players in the first round and won in 2 sets.
  • Gavrilova had an excellent Rome Masters where she lost to in-form Kiki Bertens. She beat 9th, 24th and 10th in the rankings. Superb stuff.

Conclusions

  • Tough to gauge Kulichkova's achievements.
  • If Gavrilova plays as she did in Rome, where she beat 2 top 10 players, then she should win with ease today.
  • Gavrilova beat these top players in 3 sets which tells me she can fight back if Kulichkova wins the first set.