Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 24, 2015

Review of yesterday’s matches.

4-0 to Geylang International was not a surprise. No DRT there.

Hougang beat Brunei 1-0, so no 2-2 goal fest there.

OPS won 4-0. No DRT there as I wanted to lay JBK if they scored first.

Bromma won 0-4 away to Frej. I did favour Frej so no joy there.

I wanted to lay Zaligiris if they led 0-2. They only led 0-1, conceded , and won 1-2.

Germany U21 scored first against Czech U21 so no DRT there.

All in all yesterday was a poor day, Singaporean league cups, Uzbekistan Cup, Lithuanian leagues and Swedish lower leagues. Bring back the Premiership, Bundesliga, Seria A, all is forgiven! To put these matches into perspective, during August -April , if these games were on the coupon, I would only have researched the Germany u21 match. This I hope reveals the "quality" of matches on offer during this off-season.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

4:30pm - Honka v TPV - 1.47 home

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 3rd in the Finnish Kakkonen South.TPV have played 7 matches, Honka have played 9 matches.

Honka

  • All wins. 6 clean sheets in  9 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 at home.

TPV

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This could be a test for Honka today. Their winning streak will end. Our job is to wait for a suitable match in which to lay them.
  • Both sides are in solid form. Both sides avoid draws - lay any late draw.
  • Both sides have been keeping clean sheets recently.
  • The speculative amongst you might want to lay Honka if they score first. TPV may be galvanised by their recent winning run.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5pm - Rosenborg v Tromsdalen - 1.05 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the Norwegian NM Cup between 1st in the Eliteserien and 5th in 2. Division.
  • Rosenborg are unbeaten in all cup matches in 2014. 4 clean sheet wins and 3 consecutive clean sheet wins.
  • Tromsdalen beat Bodo/Glimt 6-2, and took Stromsgodset to extra time so have some experience v Eliteserien teams.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Faith in the market here. 1.05 = about 5+ goals. Lay the 0-0 halftime score. Look at over 5.5 goals if the match is 0-0 for a while. Correct score market is also the market for creating value here. 5-0. 5-1, 7-0 something like that.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - Honefoss v Sandefjord - 2.38 away

Standout Stats

  • This is another Norwegian Cup match and the market is a little off-putting.
  • 13th in the 1st Division v 16th in the Eliteserien.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Not for me thank you. This is a close 2nd to the Uzbekistan Cup !
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - Mjondalen v Hodd - 1.7 home

Standout Stats

  • Ahh, Mjondalen, the Norwegian Hoffenheim. In the league at least, lay 0-0 halftime score, both teams scoring etc.etc. Mjondalen have been a profitable team to follow. As you can probably ascertain, this is the Norwegian Cup today.
  • These 2 last met in the 1.Division where the last 2 scorelines were 1-3 Hodd and 1-4 Mjondalen.
  • Mjondalen are on a 2 match 1-1 draw sequence in the league. Will that draw sequence end today?

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Tough to get angles in, but I will stick with my lay of 0--0 halftime score for Mjondalen. I would lay any late 1-1 just in the hope that they end their 1-1 draw sequence. I expect them to outscore Hod today.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - Odd v Asane - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • 6th in the Eliteserien plays 12th in the 1.Division.
  • This is the Norwegian Cup.

Odd

  • Are in solid form. Unbeaten in 9 and only 2 defeats in 23 matches in all competitions.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 home matches v Rosenborg. 3 consecutive draws at home is perhaps a sequence priced to end today.
  • 7 wins in their last 8 cup matches.
  • 4-3-3-5-0-13-4-4 scored in recent cup matches.
  • 13 wins in 15 home cup matches historically.

Asane

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches and bear in mind this is in an inferior league.
  • Only 1 win in 6 away was in the cup.
  • 4 consecutive 2-0 results in the cup, 1 loss and 3 wins.
  • Have scored 2+ in all bar 1 away cup matches but tough to gauge the opponents as compared to today's.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The market is right here. The one concern as ever with cup matches is gauging Asane's successes in the cup. Were their opponents anywhere near Odd in form? Odd are on a great run at the moment and have goals coming from all areas. Expect a comfortable home win (famous last words in a cup match) so prepare to DRT should this not be the case.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:45pm - Brechin v Aberdeen - 1.12 away

Standout Stats

  • A friendly between 1st Division Brechin and Premiership 2nd Aberdeen.
  • Nearly the exact time last year, Brechin lost 1-4 to Aberdeen so this looks like a yearly thing.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Apologies if I sound a little underwhelmed today. This is a friendly likely to be highly illiquid and therefore of no consequence. If the market fleshes out, I would back Aberdeen if Brechin score first. Last year's result is a good gauge as to the likely result today
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:45pm - England U21 v Italy U21 - 2.66 home

Standout Stats

  • These 2 last met in 2013 and given the age group, there will be changes in personnel.
  • This is a UEFA U21 Championship match held in the Czech Republic.
  • Group B. England win and they are through to the semi finals. A draw will suffice as long as Sweden fail to beat Portugal.
  • Italy go through if they beat England and Sweden fail to beat Portugal.
  • 0-1 loss for England v Portugal and a 0-1 win for England v Sweden.
  • Italy lost 1-2 to Sweden and drew 0-0 with Portugal.
  • England's sole goal was an 85th minute goal. Italy's was a penalty.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The odds are right again. These 2 are poor goal-scorers but a win today really could ensure a semi-final place. Both sides need a win and for Sweden not to win. I would lay a late 0-0 here in the hope that this need for a win comes into fruition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:45pm - Portugal U21 v Sweden U21 - 1.91 home

Standout Stats

  • Here are the permutations taken directly from www.uefa.com.
  • "Portugal will be through with a win or a draw and would also progress if they lost and England drew with Italy in a game being played simultaneously in Olomouc. Sweden will progress with a victory, while a draw would be enough only if Italy beat England in the other game. If they lose and England win, then they would be in an Olympic play-off."
  • 0-1 and 0-0 for Portugal  -  unbeaten so effective but underwhelming.
  • 1-2 win for Sweden and 0-1 loss to England. Sweden's 2nd goal to beat Italy was a penalty so questionable attacking form.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Too tight to call although the market slightly favours Portugal U21 today. Do you? It seems they are driven by defensive strength and seek to nick a goal.
  • Sweden have questionable attacking form too. 1 of their 2 goals v Italy was a penalty.
  • The form does not tell us much. The Portugeuse manager is very optimistic. His opposing colleague recognises a "Difficult ,but not impossible" task. As far as confidence is concerned I would have to be with the Portugeuse today. Lay the Swedes if they score first.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------