Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

As with yesterday, take your cues from the market (which was generally accurate yesterday in Europe) and from the in-play stats. In preparation for the new season, I'll be doing some videos for the DRT Facebook page on set up for live trading sessions, and in-play stats. All fundamentals you should know by now but there's no harm in a refresher session!

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFIERS (CL)

  • First legs today.
  • I research early and Betfair included all matches under today's date. This has now been corrected so only Plzen, Saburtalo, PSV and The New Saints kick off today.

18:00 - BATE Borisov v Rosenborg - 2.26 BATE

  • Soccerway has this down as 24th July so apologies if it is not on today's coupon. Betfair is showing as 23rd July.
  • Belarus v Norway.
  • Both leagues established, up and running this season.
  • BATE's losses last season in the CL came home and away v PSV so there is a hint that they could perform better v apparent lesser lights Rosenborg.
  • 3 draws and a loss at home for BATE though sees them stumbling.
  • They scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 CL home matches.
  • Rosenborg found Celtic trouble in 2017 and 2018.
  • Celtic are a little better than BATE.
  • If BATE score first, a suggestion to lay them given that both teams to score and score draw sequence?

19:00 - CFR Cluj v Maccabi Tel Aviv - 2.16 Cluj

  • Soccerway has this down as 24th July.
  • Romania v Israel.
  • Cluj lasted only one round last year v Malmo. Already this season they beat Astana.
  • Maccabi were last in the CL in 2015 and carry a 6 match losing streak into this year. No recent CL form for us to work from.

19:00 - Ferencvaros v Valletta - 1.18 Ferencvaros

  • Hungary v Malta.
  • Ferencvaros were last in the CL in 2016.
  • Valletta are on a 4 draw sequence in the CL spanning 2018 and 2019.
  • Little to work with other than the odds.

19:15 - Maribor v AIK - 2.38 Maribor

  • There are plenty of odds- on favourites for us to look at without complicating matters with a 2.38 favourite. We are familiar with AIK from Sweden.

19:45 - Celtic v Nomme Kalju - 1.05 Celtic

  • This is a Celtic who can beat Barcelona at home in the CL so this Estonian outfit should be put to the sword. Remember the 20 minute rule. Back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime market if 0-0 at 20 minutes.

19:45 - Dundalk v Qarabag - 2.38 Qarabag

  • Dundalk we know well. The market we know well too. As with Maribor's match, the market suggests this is too tough to call.
  • Wait for the 2nd legs or at least play this match via the in-play stats.

19:45 - Crvena Zvezda v HJK - 1.27 Crvena

  • Emphatic marker here between Serbia and FInland. The home side are better known as Red Star Belgrade.
  • Red Star went deep last year, playing the likes of Napoli, PSG, Liverpool, so expectations are high for a group stage berth at least. Hence the odds I suppose.
  • In contrast, HJK played against 2 teams only last year.
  • Red Star look to have that nouse about them in this competition.

UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE QUALIFIERS

17:00 - Slovan Bratlislava v FK Feronikeli - 1.18 Slovan

  • Slovakia v Kosovo here.
  • Slovan are relegated from the Champions League.
  • The market is a big guess here given FK are a very unknown and unfamiliar side. Are you with the market? If so, justify the odds via the in-play stats.

SWEDISH SUPERETTAN

18:00 - GAIS v Norrby - 2.24 GAIS

GAIS

  • 5 consecutive defeats ended with a win last match.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets, one came last match.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal at home.
  • 3 of 4 wins have actually come away, 2 v 8th and 9th.

Norrby

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away.
  • Losses away v 1st and 15th.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Not a match to set the pulses racing. I would note a strong scoring and conceding trend for Norrby 2nd half so note that if 0-0 at halftime (only 3 clean sheets GAIS remember!).
  • 5 consecutive defeats plays 3 defeats in 4 matches. Yikes!
  • The Elite European Leagues are but a moment away! Have no fear.