West Brom and Juventus provided the best trading opportunities yesterday. You'd have needed a large dollop of faith in the baggies though. Leeds too came from 1-0 down to draw 1-1. Did you keep the faith in them? The must-wins did win in the Champions League. We have seen these must-wins in recent days all pull off the needed win, sometimes with a single goal victory, like Real Madrid.
Onto today, and I'd do a talk through at the DRT Facebook page.
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (CL)
17:55 - Ajax v Chelsea - 2.42 Ajax
- A market already suggesting that this match may not be the most tradable (without the e!).
- Since July 2017 in the CL, Ajax have only been beaten twice at home to Real Madrid and Tottenham.
- Group H has the potential to be a toughie for Chelsea with Valencia and Lille also in the mix. This match therefore becomes very important for Chelsea will want to take points off the likely Group winners.
- 2 3-0 wins for Ajax v the other 2 this group.
- 9 over 2.5 goals matches in 11 at home for Ajax.
- Chelsea lost at home to Valencia and beat Lille 1-2. Nowhere near as emphatic as Ajax were.
- Angles? Fat Frank may be a little too green to come up against last season's Semi-finalists. On the collateral form we have, Ajax have impressed far more, and importantly, kept clean sheets (something they did not manage at home in the CL last year). No ultra strong angles as befits the odds but a slight nod towards Ajax not losing.
17:55 - RB Leipzig v Zenit St Petersburg - 1.65 RB
- Leipzig keep getting priced up at 1.65 and keep failing. Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw now at these odds. They were 1.6 v Olympiakos in the CL and lost 0-2.
- The market still cannot resist pricing them up!
- Leipzig are relatively new to the CL. 2017 debut.They tended to score and conceded 2017.It is a tight Group G this year and this is a must win for both sides. Only Benfica are really out of contention.
- 1-2 win and 0-2 loss for RB so far.
- Zenit were last in the CL in 2016. So far this campaign, 1-1 v Lyon and 3-1 win v Benfica.
- Angles? RB have shown constantly an inability to win at 1.6 odds. Yet here we are. Will they click tonight? Can you trust them? They have drawn the last 2 occasions when 1.6 favourites but lost here in the CL, at home, when 1.6 favourites. Logic suggests laying RB, particularly if leading?
20:00 - Benfica v Lyon - 2.28 Benfica
- The other 2 sides in Group G with Benfica the strugglers.
- Benfica tend to struggle when meeting the better sides in the CL. 1-2 loss v Leipzig and 3-1 loss v Zenit suggests Benfica may be layable if leading?
- But can you trust Lyon?
- 1-1 v Zenit and 0-2 win v RB Leipzig for Lyon. Better looking form. Draws in the CL v Man City, Shakhtar and Barcelona last season gives us a snapshot of ability.
- Angles? Benfica look a little out of their depth. Faith in Lyon not losing (noting the drawitis).
Inter v Dortmund - 2.3 Inter
- On paper, this is a tasty affair, but is it a tradable affair?
- Group F looks a toughie for Inter with Dortmund and Barcelona their nearest rivals. Inter will need to take points off Dortmund.
- No win in 6 in the CL for Inter Milan. 1-1 draw with weak link Slavia Prague and 2-1 loss v Barcelona (a majestic display from Luis Suarez).
- 0-0 v Barcelona and 0-2 win v Slavia Prague.
- Angles? Defensively sound, Dortmund may keep Inter to scoring a maximum of one goal and that should be their angle into this match. I would lay an Inter lead (as I did in Barcelona match).
Genk v Liverpool - 1.3 Liverpool
- Genk were last in the CL in 2011. 6-2 loss v Salzburg and 0-0 v Napoli. It is that latter scoreline that Liverpool, maybe minus Salah, will have to be wary of.
- Must win territory for Liverpool now with a 2-0 loss v Napoli and a 4-3 win v Salzburg. A concern Liverpool are conceding readily (5 goals in 2 matches).
- Angles? We must be with Liverpool.....surely? Must win territory against the weak link in Group E. Napoli and Red Bull won't go away!
Red Bull Salzburg v Napoli - 2.52 Napoli
- The market cannot split these 2. Logically, we'd say that Italian Seria A has a far finer pedigree than the Austrian Bundesliga?
- In a Group E likely dominated by Liverpool, this match is vitally important for these 2 sides.
- 6-2 win v Genk and 4-3 loss v Liverpool. Red Bull full of goals.
- Napoli beat Liverpool 2-0 and drew 0-0 with Genk.
- Angles? Attack v defence here? Logic sides with the Italians but there must be a reason why the market has not discounted Red Bull. Maybe it's the 9 goals in 2 CL matches which may test that Napoli defence.
Slavia Prague v Barcelona - 1.42 Barcelona
- The last Barcelona CL match was a great trading match. We kept the faith in that amazing home record of Barcelona and, as Inter led, Luis Suarez stepped up with 2 majestic finishes.
- With Dortmund facing a tough match with Inter Milan, Barcelona really should eye the win here.
- 1-1 v Inter Milan and 0-2 loss v Dortmund for Slavia suggests Barcelona should get the win.
- 0-0 v Dortmund and 2-1 win v Inter for Barcelona.
- Angles? I expect of Barcelona today.
Lille v Valencia - 2.78 Lille
- A tough Group H also featuring Chelsea and Ajax.
- 3-0 loss v Ajax and 1-2 loss v Chelsea for Lille.
- This is their first appearance in the CL since 2014.
- 0-1 win v Chelsea and 0-3 loss v Ajax for Valencia.
- Angles? I am with the market. Too tough to call.
19:45 - Nottm Forest v Hull - 2.04 Nottm Forest
- 1st goal: Nottm Forest have scored first in 9/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hull City have lost 5/7 away matches against top-six teams. Nottm Forest have won 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.
- 2 losses only for Forest in first and last matches.
- 3 wins in 4 at home.
- Forest failed to score in only their last match.
- Only 3 wins for Hull. They failed to score only twice and kept only 2 clean sheets.
- Angles? Looking at the Challenge Table, Hull may score without winning. Forest have conceded 2 goals only v top of the league.
Huddersfield v Middlesbrough - 2.36 Huddersfield
- 1st half outcome: Huddersfield have drawn the first half in 4/6 home matches while there have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Middlesbrough away matches against bottom-six teams. Middlesbrough have scored first in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 7 losses in their first 8 matches for Huddersfield. They have a draw, Win, Win, Draw last 4 matches.
- Huddersfield failed to score in only 2 matches which came at home.
- 22nd v 21st here so these 2 are in poor early form.
- 4 losses in 5 matches for Boro. No away win.
- Angles? No thanks. 2 out of form sides. Acknowledge Huddersfield's turn around, yes. Will it continue today with home advantage?
Bristol City v Charlton - 2.1 Bristol City
- 1st goal: Bristol City have conceded first in 7/13 home matches while Charlton have scored first in 3/5 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/11 Bristol City home matches.
- Only 2 losses for Bristol City came 1st and last matches.
- Win, Draw, Draw, Win last 4 home matches.
- Bristol City failed to score in only 2 matches.
- 9th v 8th here. Only 1 home loss for City v 2nd.
- 3 Charlton losses came within their last 6 matches.
- Charlton have not played the top 9 away so a gap in form there.
- Angles? It may simply be too early in the season for any strong form lines. We do not know how Charlton will perform v the top 9 away.
Fulham v Luton - 1.53 Fulham
- 1st goal: Fulham have scored first in 4/6 home matches while Luton have lost 4/6 away matches. Fulham have won by two or more goals in 3/6 home matches.
- Only 3 losses for Fulham.
- Only 1 loss at home for Fulham.
- Fulham failed to score in only 2 matches.
- Fulham have scored in their last 6 at home.Wins at home, to nil, v 14th, 16th and 18th for Fulham and they play 17th.
- 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- 4 losses and 2 wins away for Luton. Only 1 clean sheet for Luton came last match.
- Luton have conceded in each of their last 6 away matches.
- Angles? I think Fulham's home form looks consistently strong and should see them win. They tend to keep clean sheets v teams around Luton's in the league.
Derby v Wigan - 2.1 Derby
- 1st goal: Derby have scored first in 6/8 home matches against bottom-half teams while Wigan have lost 9/13 away matches. Wigan have conceded first in 13/20 away matches.
- Only 3 losses for Derby.
- 2 draws and 2 wins in their last 3 home matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets for Derby.Derby have had only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- Derby have beaten 22nd, 23rd, 24th away and play 16th at home.
- 4 wins for Wigan came at home. 5 losses and a draw in 6 away matches.
- Wigan have conceded in their last 6 away matches.
- Wigan have failed to score that 2nd goal away.
- Angles? If Wigan cannot score that 2nd goal away, then lay them if they lead? I like Derby's away form v 22nd and lower - does it suggest home v 16th could be within their compass?