Betfair 'outage' last night I hope did not affect any bet placement. Particularly as I advised laying Benfica if they scored first. Guess what? It's yet another away 1-1 in the Champions League for PAOK. Watch the second leg pattern where PAOK tend to undo all this hard work and get beaten easily at home. Elsewhere a simple trade in Mjondalen's match. Asane score first, Mjondalen equalise. Today follows yesterday's tough to research Championship matches and Champions League matches.
Even after 3 matches in the English Championship, we are starting to see patterns. Patterns make profit. Look at Wigan's scoring and conceding 2 goals. Look at Reading one-goal-in-it defeats. Norwich have conceded at least 2 goals in their 3 matches. Neither Aston Villa, nor Brentford, have had a 0-0 at halftime. How would I use these patterns? Lay Wigan if Wigan lead 2-0! Lay Reading if Reading score first - where's that 2nd goal? If 0-0 after 25 minutes, speculatively lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in Aston Villa's match. Get the idea?
19:45 - Sheff Wed v Millwall - 2.56 Millwall
- 15th v 8th from last season.
- Sheff Wed lost only 4 home matches outside of the top 5. They beat Millwall 2-1 at home.
- Millwall away from the Den were poor last season. Only 1 win away v top 17 sides tells you they were solid v 18th and lower away and at home.
- Struggles for Sheff Wed this season. 2 away losses and a 1-1 home draw v Hull.No 0-0 at halftime. No clean sheets.
- 2 draws and a win for Millwall this season. At home, Millwall scored 2 goals.
19:45 - Blackburn v Reading - 1.79 Blackburn
- Newly promoted v 20th from last season. The market is not too keen on the Championship side from last season.
- Only 3 wins for Reading since 11th December 2017 suggests their remaining in this league is one lucky thing.
- v 17th and lower away, Reading were unbeaten last season. I cannot assume that a newly promoted side will be struggling though.
- 2 draws and a win for Blackburn this season. 2 consecutive clean sheets. 0-0 at home.
- 3 losses for Reading this season. It does not seem that they have improved since last season. All 3 Reading defeats were one-goal-in-it. 2 1-0 losses in a row.
- 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime for Reading. Note that today and take on a 2nd half 0-0.
19:45 - Norwich v Preston - 2.48 Norwich
- 14th v 7th from last season. Preston a nostril hair from the play-off places.
- 1-1 draw with Preston last season for Norwich saw them sporadically win v top 10 (4th, 5th and 8th). Outside of the top 10, Norwich lost only once at home.
- Only 5 away defeats for Preston last season 3 of which saw them fail to score.
- A draw and 2 defeats for Norwich this season conceding 2-4-2 goals. Troubles in defence for Norwich.
- Preston have won, lost and drawn this season, the win a 1-0, the loss a 0-1.
- It may be advantage Preston today if Norwich's defence is still leaky. I would seek to lay Norwich if Norwich score first.
19:45 - Aston Villa v Brentford - 2.64 Aston Villa
- 4th v 9th from last season. No wonder the market is non-committal.
- Only 2 home defeats for Villa last season tells you they will be relying on home form for another Premier League push.0-0 v Brentford at home last season.
- Only 4 away wins for Brentford v top 18 sides. Brentford did not beat a top 6 side away.
- 2 wins and a draw so far for Villa sees both teams score. 2 wins and a draw for Brentford. The wins came at home.
- Neither side has had a 0-0 at halftime.
20:00 - Bolton v Birmingham - 2.74 Birmingham
- 21st v 19th from last season. More struggles expected this season?
- All bar 2 of Bolton's wins at home came v 11th and lower.
- 0-1 loss for Bolton at home v Birmingham last season.
- Only 3 away wins for Birmingham last season includes that win v Bolton.
- Win, Draw, Win for Bolton so far. Did beat West Brom. Scored 2 goals in 2 of 3 matches.Bolton have scored in all 3 matches.
- Draw, Loss, Draw for Birmingham.1-0 loss away v Birmingham. Both sides have had 2 0-0's at halftime so note that - do expect goals if 0-0 at halftime.
20:00 - Stoke v Wigan - 2.16 Stoke
- Relegated v Promoted here. Surely Stoke, with that recent Premier League form, have the advantage v a side who were playing in League One.
- A loss and 2 draws for Stoke saw both teams score. 2-1-3 goals before halftime.
- 3-2 win, 3-2 loss, 2-2 for Wigan this season. 3-2-3 goals before halftime.
- Wigan's last 2 matches saw 90th minute goals. Note that. Note too the relatively big numbers of goals before halftime. Yes, only 3 matches but you may want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Note Wigan are fans of Sir Desmond 2-2.
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (CL)
20:00 - Young Boys v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.78 Young Boys
- You know how much I like Swiss side Young Boys, domestically at least. Goals before halftime, and 2+ goals is the norm for YB.
- Young Boys simply struggle in the CL.Only 2 wins in 11 matches. 2-0 win v Dynamo Kiev and 0-1 loss v CSKA Moscow at home recently.
- Dinamo Zagreb were last in the CL in 2016, with 6 consecutive losses.
- Win, Draw, Win, Win 2018 for Dinamo Zagreb. 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
- Tough to call I'm afraid. How can I weigh up a Swiss side v a Croatian side?
20:00 - Ajax v Dynamo Kiev - 1.7 Ajax
- In 11 of their last 13 CL matches, Ajax have scored and conceded. 3 wins in 4 and impressed v Standard Liege latest, a team they really were expected to beat.
- 3 score draws and 2 wins at home for Ajax in the CL.
- In 8 CL matches in 2016, Kiev won only one match. In 2017 they lasted 2 matches v Young Boys, a win and a loss. 0-1-0-0-0-1 goals scored by Kiev in their last 6 away matches.
- I cannot really evaluate Kiev as against Ajax here so inplay stats are required. But if you feel Kiev's pattern of not scoring 2 goals away continues, then lay Kiev if Kiev scores first.
20:00 - MOL Vidi v AEK Athens - 2.28 AEK Athens
- 2011, 2015 and 2018 the 3 years Vidi have been in the CL. 3 draws in 4 matches for Vidi conceding 1-1-0-0-1-0 goals in their 2018 CL matches. Unbeaten.
- Vidi are unbeaten in their sometime home CL matches.
- 2007 the last time AEK were in the CL until 2017 where they lasted one round. 1-1 and 2-1 win v Celtic impresses this year. Celtic have tended to go deep in the CL.
- Vidi for me are a complete unknown quantity.
Holland, Ukraine and Sweden provide us with cup matches. Currently illiquid, these markets could be tradable if fleshing out nearer to kick-offs.